Member Info for Boyobach

Forming its own higher lows....

...is a trend described rather than drawn, of course.

The charts have shown signs of the bottom being reached for about a fortnight, cureboy, but we get negative comments whatever we observe because a picture of what has actually happened doesn’t always fit certain people’s narrative. If the price closes today above 475, ideally after filling the gap to 469, then it will have been the most significant positive day since March 7th. https://invst.ly/142z6- . Unfortunately, gaps can’t be ignored because they do usually get filled unless the price continues to rise (or fall) at pace without ever returning to similar levels.

Yes, a nice jump this morning. A shame about the gap to 469 - hopefully that will fill and the price will continue to move on https://invst.ly/142xbc

Onshakyground - a guy who does not understand that observations are based in the moment. Specifically, in this case, the first half hour of trading yesterday and followed by a question NOT a prediction: ' will it break through 470?' .

I notice that Shaky didn't offer a view despite being invited to, preferring to wait a day and then misrepresent the content of my post as a failed prediction.

If shaky doesn't know what an observation is I hope he isn’t employed in navigation or air traffic control, or indeed anything requiring an intelligent response to changing circumstances (like driving a car or controlling investments).

He also doesn’t seem to realise that this board is for people who buy and sell shares and may wish to discuss price movements during the day - difficult for some to grasp, I guess. Or, just maybe, he likes to feel more in control of the debate. Social media does seem to attract certain types doesn't it?

Great for comic comments though - do keep ‘em coming!!

Meanwhile, a full two trading days after my 'upward pressure' observation and question, OCDO has eased back but continued to trade in the 450-470 band as the market awaits the retail statement (which I did suggest was a fair possibility a week or two back). Any moves currently will probably reflect that anticipation - which did look fairly neutral today didn't it Shaky?

Chilting: it is nearly two years since Ocado's SP dropped below 1000p and it has remained there ever since……

It’s basically gravitated to near a fiver, Chilting, https://invst.ly/141lr1 . The retail business may just about justify that (on a good day). As a tech company it hasn’t yet broken through to the big time and groceries aren’t the path to riches. Generally, in tech, it’s the ones that are associated with mass markets (or that supply them with chips / IP) that hit the big time and OCDO isn’t in that kind of sector.

If I visit the M&S website there is no prominent link or obvious way to get to ‘M&S at Ocado’ . If I go to ‘Food & Wine’ I’m offered cakes, sandwiches, party food etc. but if I want M&S sausages I firstly have to know in advance that Ocado, not M&S, supply them and then search for a link labelled Ocado (not M&S at Ocado), which is buried in small print next to the corporate link at the very bottom of the page. M&S clearly don’t want me to visit M&S at Ocado to buy their stuff because it will take me away from their main site. It’s a branding/marketing gaff worthy of a project on ‘The Apprentice’.

Yes Swanley - chart users will choose the charts, tools and timeframes that suit their personal needs and preferences. I've actually found msuk's recent posts here interesting and do find the trading type charts (15 min) useful when I'm almost ready to buy or sell but want to finally confirm or refine the timing.

OCDO has tested 470 on seven of the last ten days however, as positive as that may seem, it has not cracked it yet and the longer it takes the less significant the move may turn out to be. Next week's retail statement may hold the key to unlock things.

Just continue onshakyground, I'm well in profit on OCDO and that's all that matters to me.

There's always a debate about where a turning point will be - it comes down to probabilities in the end.

I acknowledged making an error last week - misread the chart and prematurely suggested a breakout had occurred when it hadn't (and still hasn't). Nothing in share dealing is guaranteed - charts are just a tool that shift the odds for LTH's as well as day traders.

If you look back at OCDO over the last five years, the charts (especially EMA) have invariably been indicating correctly.

Interesting to see some upward pressure during the first half hour of trading this morning: https://invst.ly/140teh

Highest intraday price (477) achieved for a fortnight. Will it break through 470 though?

Yes: Today marked the end of the latest uptrend (green dash): https://invst.ly/1407ht

and confirmed significant resistance at 470.

You could, of course, be correct avocet : there is that troublesome gap around 386 along with at least one previous analyst statement supporting that possibility. In the meantime, today's sp is moving sideways possibly hovering in the current region until the retail trading statement due the week after next.

Break of structure....

Yes msuk . I made an error yesterday when I said that it had broken above 470 - the opening price was below the line so there was a fair possibility that it would retrace. Conventionally, the view is that a breakout through a trend (like the red one here on the daily chart) will often return to 'kiss the line' before resuming. the breakout. No guarantees this will happen here of course, but the pattern fits so far: https://invst.ly/13-24l Tomorrow will tell.

This board isn't just for you cureboy, if you don't like stuff there's a filter - don't try to control what we see here.

Yes - it's been doing that for 5 straight trading days on the 15 min..https://invst.ly/13zed9

Not watching it today msuk but - yes! boxes ticked as per my other post this evening. Looking good.

A great YouTube video posted here by edtheuph but hidden in this ‘Test ’thread. Thanks Ed!

Back in the boring and nerdy world of charts (which are NOT predictions but seek to improve PI odds when it comes to selling or buying OCDO) it’s been a second positive day with more ‘recovery’ boxes ticked: https://invst.ly/13z9zm and a much higher volume:

1) it broke through the red trend; 2) it broke above 470, 3) it broke above 8ema(blue) (NB: ‘broke’ means ‘opened and closed’ above)

It just about ticked the fourth and final box: The 8 and 21 ema lines are starting to converge towards crossover.

For clarification: That last point (4) is optimistically biassed by me because I am likely to act upon it. However, the actual ‘buy’ crossover indication often occurs much later and too late to be useful. It’s a tool that, most agree, is best viewed alongside other indicators like the relevant trends.

Will I buy tomorrow? Quite possibly, depending upon the morning’s trading indicators (which are indicators and NOT predictors). GLA.

Yes - will the red trend prevail?

https://invst.ly/13yscb

Well the price did fall to 431 TT.

Prior to the FY results there was discussion about support levels and two gaps which would come onto the radar IF the results were badly received and the sp fell significantly below 500. In line with those risks, the sp filled the higher of those two gaps (at 436) when it fell to 431 this week. The second gap, at 386, remains a risk if the sp drops near it either now or in the future. Again, these were not predictions of certainty but identified price levels that would become more likely under certain circumstances. Had I been utterly convinced that both gaps would get filled I wouldn’t have started buying back at the 450 support level would I? Managing a portfolio of shares is about making reasoned decisions based on fundamentals, news and identified possibilities . The rest is just luck.

Charts are indicative not predictive TT , it's a common misconception.

When I post them I discuss the possible outcomes that occur to me based on what I see. If you reach a different conclusion from looking at the same picture then that's entirely up to you and you should comment on it. It's when the price changes direction and breaks away from a current trend, fails to hit a trend, or continues through a resistance or support level that charts are most useful because they indicate that something (like market sentiment) is changing.

Today for, example , was positive for OCDO but still no cigar as far as a solid recovery is concerned: https://invst.ly/13yeg-

1) it didn’t break through the red trend; 2) it didn’t break above 470, 3) it didn't break above 8ema(blue) ; 4} the 8 and 21 ema lines are not converging towards crossover .

Hopefully more of that checklist will be ticked by the weekend.

The green dashed line shows a potential positive trend that the sp will follow IF the sp continues as per the last four days: it's NOT a prediction it's an indication to use tomorrow to gauge whether the sp has remained on track, gone higher or slipped down - and it will get updated if necessary.

Of course, you can always flip a coin or examine a goat's entrails if you find it more helpful when choosing a buy or sell point .

Simple certainty is for mugs, TT, and con artists exploit that. Smart people recognise uncertainty, discuss the possibilities with others and figure out what to look out for.

A share price can go any way but there are indicators that provide clues about which way it is headed within a given timeframe. Which indicators you use and how you interpret them will depend on how long you intend keeping the share - a day trader will have a very different perspective from someone who wants to ‘buy and forget’ for several years, Recently, OCDO has cycled by around 50p during level spells - so 10% profit per cycle could have been made if you sat at a screen all day. However it has also dropped by £3 (40%) since December.

So, if you're looking for simplistic certainty then follow the ‘believers’, the rampers or the derampers - there are a few around here.

On the other hand, this picture tells you what has happened and what to look out for next: https://invst.ly/13xyuh