Member Info for Boyobach

I agree msuk - last year's low has always been on the cards for a re-visit. But 365 might hold, of course.

I'm very concerned about the MKS 'thing' - they haven't got the marketing right IMV and the dispute is a big drag on sentiment.

‘no news is due to be released until the half year report in mid July’...

I think this overlooks MKS Prelim results in May.

Let’s not forget that last year this pushed OCDO to its lowest point in five years with articles and headlines like this one:

https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/marks-and-spencer/why-is-the-ocado-and-mands-joint-venture-still-struggling-on-collaboration/679616.article

The article is worth a re-read - will the issues that clearly disappointed M&S have been resolved?

And how have MKS and OCDO sps performed since the JV was announced? https://invst.ly/14cpkj

If the sp is low enough with the dispute ongoing, might MKS buy OCDO and sell-off the Tech element?

Support near 365 is being more thoroughly tested today,

There hasn't really been a bounce - dead cat or otherwise. The trends remain solidly down: https://invst.ly/14cfym

The best that can be expected at present are signs of a levelling out, for which there is some evidence but it certainly hasn't established.

Today's pattern does look like 'Pump&Dump' , Sangijuelas, and I suspected that the day might turn out as it did when I posted early on. This morning's opening rally appeared to have been driven by relatively low volume, with a large volume boost around 10am as it fell back followed by fairly low volumes until the closing auction , according to this data on Investing.com: https://invst.ly/14cf8g

If that is correct then the mid morning and closing auction volumes, taken together, accounted for nearly 50% of the day’s total. Not bad work for a trader if those high volume instances are associated with their 're-load' points.

The daily chart shows today as relatively high volume overall at 5.243M, although the numbers don’t appear on the posted version of the chartchart: https://invst.ly/14cerz . The daily average is currently given as 3.578M .

I could have done nicely today if I was able (or wanted) to sit in front of a screen.

Yes - a positive move and I put a toe back in. The volume was low, however, and dwarfed by profit taking an hour later: https://invst.ly/14c3bw . So I might have acted a bit prematurely.

Interesting comments in this thread - including a reminder of the dividend cut and the swing to buybacks (GaFG knows my views on that issue). I've been steadily taking profits here as the sp moves towards a potential ceiling but I'm reluctant to close out completely below 3000. Here is Shel 's sp against XOM and CVX since late 2019, prior to the divi cut: https://invst.ly/14c2v7

I think so Gioviano but I have no proof. Ultimately I think the market is rigged against PI's like you, me and all the guys here, including those who think you and me and others (like Valueplay - who I respect but know you distrust) have an agenda. In the end, I think most here on this board have a common agenda: to make our investments work for us and earn cash from our investments. I don't happen to think OCDO has performed as well as it could have. I also think the market has overpriced OCDO for much of the last five years. I think today's sp may be close to 'fair value' but there is precious little for me to base that upon, although I did think Exane's analysis last year seemed realistic. On that basis I'm currently considering a re-entry but, I have to say, I regard it as a risky proposition even at current levels. ATB.

Not an exactly convincing day for me msuk https://invst.ly/14bt5t (day)

And looking a bit weak by the close: https://invst.ly/14bt28 (15 min)

I might get interested again when it breaks more convincingly and the emas (day) look set to converge - but there’s no sign of that currently.

It may just drift around until the MKS numbers are due later in May.

I also think pro shorters (funds) play investor eagerness for recovery like a fiddle: pump, dump, repeat. However, many here seem to think that they simply close their positions and walk away. What do you reckon?

Static grid systems are for dunces:

So a large number of load bearing retrieval drones operating without coordinates in a randomly organised warehouse environment sounds like a safe, smart and cost-efficient idea?

Well the knife reference was to the last couple of days, since it fell through 432 support. The broader chart gave it some context and a possible landing point. Not that I'm interested until it reaches a credible bottom and some sustainable recovery can be identified.

When a knife is falling it’s smart to stay out of its way and see where it lands:

https://invst.ly/14apdi

386 was a known possibility. Beyond that there’s a lot less clarity and market enthusiasm for a share that serially disappoints isn’t infinite.

Simar: 'Ocado tech is in the CFCs not the spokes....'

This is now a critical point IMV: Are OCDO's CFC's a proven game changer for retailers that use the technology?

Some on this board play down the importance of the Retail JV but, in reality, isn't it the model upon which sales of the technology depend?

Is the Retail JV adequately demonstrating the potential of OCDO's Technology and providing a convincing case for potential clients to invest in it?

Failure of support at 450 after the Easter break, was my cue to exit before 432 was seriously tested. It got pushed to 430 but finally gave way today and a new bottom will ultimately be found, with the gap fill to 386.6, from last June, now looking rather inevitable: https://invst.ly/149ndd

OCDO’s sp is also now back to early 2018 price levels which, after six years, begs the question: ‘ Which aspects of the business are mainly responsible for the lack of adequate cash generation: Retail, Technology or Group Management?

Here's a reminder of how Shel and Brent have tracked each other since last October: https://invst.ly/149b6k

It's worth noting that, in charts like this, the Brent line is based on the daily closing price which occurs a few hours later than the LSE market close at 4.30pm - so they are not exactly in sync and, this morning, OP has slipped back a little since yesterday's LSE close. This 15 minute chart of OP v Oil Co's gives a more precise picture of the moves (the price scale is approximate): https://invst.ly/149be1

It may not be a drug dealer’s job to get an addict off heroin but shareholders do expect Shel to successfully transition the business into a low carbon future.

I agree Pokerchips - it's just harder to lose money on a share that's progressively moving up because whatever price you acquire at it'll end up higher at some point. With OCDO that's only been true during certain periods. I'm not especially bothered about buying at the bottom - it's a bonus if it happens.

Meanwhile the day ended a lot better than the first couple of hours were looking. OCDO has a number of negative trends to break through and, just maybe, it'll start tackling them from here. Holding onto 432 would be a start as there's a bit of a void below: https://invst.ly/148zp3

Phoenixy: Yes, it's putting up a fight to hold onto 432 - rescued by a rally around 10.30. If it's still above this support level at the end of the week then you may well be proved correct about the bottom. https://invst.ly/148rg7

msuk: I'm obviously not a trader but, if I was, I think I'd find it much easier/more profitable to trade shares that are on a longer term uptrend. OCDO currently strikes me as hard work for traders and LT investors alike.

GL to both of you.

Yes indeed msuk. Are you still following it ? Yesterday's drop through 450 took me out for the time being. I think today's fall might trigger stop-losses and so there's a risk of the fall accelerating . It's also now too close to the gap at 386.6 for me. The upside is not looking too great on the fundamentals either. It's the end of the financial year and OCDO has been a net positive for me over the period, so a neat point for me to exit.

Looking at all the trends in play, infor, what is your basis for disputing stupmy’s conclusion about the most likely price direction? On March 4th the sp fell to the current level but recovered in anticipation of the trading statement. However it has now fallen back to the same 432 support level, with the red trend here having broken every positive trend (green) it has encountered this year:

https://invst.ly/148dec

With no dividends and a lot of unknowns for investors, what are the main factors driving your optimism for the sp to build from here?