Member Info for Boyobach

Another high volume day (30.42m according to Investing.com, with 22m UT) taking it below 355 on the red trend (daily view): https://invst.ly/155r0u . A re-test of 340 now looking likely.

The sp data shows no definite direction at present, TT1981, and pointing that out is stating a fact not sitting on the fence. I hold OCDO shares currently btw: so I’m not so much ‘on the fence’ as ready to respond if the price turns against me. The main point I was making was that the current circumstances can’t continue indefinitely and, unless something happens sooner, one significant crunch point is approaching

Well not much movement but, nevertheless, today was a relatively poor day for OCDO because today's slight drop from Friday has kept the short term red ‘trading’ trend in play (15’ view): https://invst.ly/15551c with no decider yet in the latest red v green contest (in which red has built a strong track record in recent times). The daily chart looks no better https://invst.ly/1555a9 , begging the question ‘will 355 continue to hold now it's on the ropes?’

As OCDO’s sp continues along a horizontal path, effectively held up by the 340 support level, it’s worth reflecting that the past two months represent the most level period for the sp in the past four years (as indicated by the red 21 day EMA line in the daily chart https://invst.ly/154yji ). It’s been four years during which the only dominant trend has been the unbroken red one here https://invst.ly/154yhx as there has been no sustained positive trend to match it. The only challenger to it, in fact, is the 340 support line and by October only one of the two can survive: https://invst.ly/154ym5 .

So the debate here will be settled soon enough.

The most recent short-term downward trend (red) was broken today as the sp continued quite solidly above the 355 line. There’s a faint hint of upward pressure (green) but nothing like the breakout to 410 of ten days ago: https://invst.ly/154gxp A 15' trading chart reflects a similar picture: https://invst.ly/154h36

What do you mean by 'Here we go again' ? Today's pm rise started before the US market opened and, in any case, do you know what volumes are being traded there and how they compare to the UK? Today’s total ADR NASDQ volume was 8,282, whilst the UK traded shares volume was 4.12m: do you guys actually think the US market is driving the OCDO sp? Let’s see some trading numbers to support that view.

NASDAQ Volume source: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/ocddy/historical

Given the 5 hr time difference, OCDO ADR’s were tracking London’s sp as far as I can see when the US market opened at 9.30 EDT, after falling overnight. So they rose there on their open but that just coincided with the similar rise in the UK market at around 14.30 BST

There’s not much to see here now and probably won’t be for a while. OCDO continues to level out around 360, with occasional moves of up to 25p either side of it. The blue line here gives a one month moving average: https://invst.ly/1540b8 For completeness I’ve shown a recent short-term red trend which might briefly push the sp slightly lower but seems unlikely to threaten the 340 support.

Great for trading, boring and uninspiring for bullish LTH holders. Even shorters are losing interest- which may subdue the volatility

The next news based influence is likely to be the HY results which don’t seem likely to contain any surprises but will hopefully reinforce the narrative of steady retail growth together with progress regarding the McKesson project and all the other existing partnerships.

.... with heavy reservations regarding Risk and Uncertainty:

Morningstar's director of equity research, Ioannis Pontikis, assigns Ocado shares an Uncertainty Rating of Very High. For one, Ocado faces intense competition in the UK as grocers battle to earn the loyalty of customers with squeezed budgets. Tesco's "price match" has resulted in significant price reductions over the past few years, and that has hit Ocado disproportionately because it doesn't have the purchasing power its older (and larger) peers do.

Although Ocado's solutions business is the clear driving force and top focus moving ahead, the market for this kind of innovation is currently modest, which means it will take Ocado time to scale. Morningstar analysts also expect stickier inflation to have a greater impact on the business, given its exposure to shrinking baskets and added delivery costs per order.

These risks are not domestic either. The firm also risks failing to successfully commercialise its solutions technology overseas due to service disruptions, quality issues, or slow online adoption growth. While the likelihood is low, the effect would be "catastrophic",

Well @Corry and Phoenixy, supposing Millenium crossed directly to 0% and then came back at 0.03% we wouldn’t know, so it’s not a particularly useful debate as we would all be technically correct.

More interestingly, if all of Friday’s UT were involved in the closure of short positions (which seems unlikely to me given the chat over the weekend) then OCDO shorts should now be down to around 4% and it would not still be in the top 5 of most shorted. Some reporting may be delayed, of course.

Phoenixy: The notice that Shorttracker have on their site above the OCDO disclosed positions seems very explicit:

'Notice: We no longer track disclosures after they drop below 0.5%. It is possible that the manager still holds a short position even if we are showing it as zero.'

It’s just worth clarifying that the UT trade on Friday appears to have represented about 4.26% of issued shares (DYOR), which was over 3x Millenium’s last reported total short position. Millenium have dropped below 0.5% and are therefore reported as 0% so we don’t know if they closed out totally. Other possible and likely reasons for the large UT volume have been discussed in the related thread. OCDO issued an update RNS today stating that it has 830,579,403 issued ordinary shares admitted to trading.

@Phoenixy: I wish you hadn’t asked that question today because I would prefer to duck it until the weekend.

However - bearing in mind that, as msuk recently pointed out, a trend needs to pass through 3 points minimum to be valid - last week’s spike does not qualify as part of a new trend in daily terms* unless the sp stalls on the red line I’ve marked here: https://invst.ly/152fri . Ignoring that one, an optimist will point to the green rising trend which, frankly, barely qualifies but is more legitimate. The main challenger, as I’ve mentioned to you previously is the red way out and top right and, in my opinion, that is the one that OCDO needs to break. Given recent activity my bet, for there are no certainties, is that the HY results will be the decider, whatever happens in the meantime, and if they are good enough then that significant red trend will get broken But if the HY results disappoint then look out.

*On a trading view, btw, that red trend from last week has already been broken https://invst.ly/152fxl so little to worry about imo. ATB

I think opinions regarding falling, rising or levelling out are very subjective, and potentially a bit premature, at the moment VP:

https://invst.ly/1525zw

I'm not about to offer an opinion (although I did buy back in last week).

@Corry: thanks for coming back on this. I realise I may have overlooked the larger companies in my own list (eg Shel, Lloy, Stan and others) because I made the schoolboy error of glancing too quickly at day totals over a long period (which did make OCDO stand out but did not with these companies) rather than closely checking the 15 minutes immediately after the close on all of them. And you are absolutely correct - the others do indeed exhibit the effect, it just seems to have been much more disproportionate for OCDO this time around. So it does seem to be a routinely occurring process but one which is possibly magnified /distorted when a stock is likely to be moved from a given index? That would make sense to me. Importantly in the context of OCDO currently, it is probably not an indication of shorts buying back in anticipation of closing their position, which is what many here will be looking out for and was suggested earlier in this thread. I'm much obliged for your time and input on this. ATB.

Excellent example DonBroco - I think that nails the common thread behind OCDO's Friday UT extreme volume. It didn't shift the price much in either case. Worth knowing for future reference. Cheers.

Thanks Corry. Regarding the observation that ‘This is not Ocado specific’ the process may not be but the fact remains that I cannot find a similar scale event in OCDO’s entire history if the Kroeger related volume spike is excluded. Out of my watchlist of 20+ companies only a couple, including Berkeley Grp and CWR, exhibited a significant volume jump on Friday. I quickly looked elsewhere and Aberdeen, a heavily shorted share, was the only obvious one that historically looks very similar to OCDO in terms of Friday’s event, with nothing of similar scale in the past six years. HRGV also exhibited a volume spike on Friday, its largest in three years.

So whilst I must accept that it could be some kind of ‘large institutional process’ it is unsatisfactorily opaque and may sometimes be associated with shorted stocks. It does beg the question, if it is an institutional process, why is it not conducted off the exchange - why via the auction?

Stupmy: Regarding Friday’s high volume UT: to get an extremely high volume in the auction requires an unusually high level of match between sellers and buyers within a price range which I understand is narrowed down during the auction matching process. To that extent I think that the high volume experienced at CPI was coincidental rather than directly related to the one at OCDO. For OCDO, the last time a full day’s volume came close appears to be six years ago, when the day's volume hit 39.4m and accompanied a gap up to 700p on 17/5/2018: https://invst.ly/151u6z I can’t see the actual UT volume for that day.

It is tempting to draw that conclusion Borismoose and maybe that is what happened, in which case we should find out quite soon. With OCDO dropping out of the FTSE 100 and other possible index changes, as mentioned by DanielLiang, some holding adjustments can be expected, although I'm under the impression that such adjustments are phased over a period rather than being implemented within a given day or week, with the obvious pricing disadvantages that could have for the passive funds involved. It 's interesting that, despite the large volume for yesterday’s UT, the effect on the sp was limited to just 3.2p. However as that depends on the quantity of price matches achieved in the process, it presumably demonstrates that there was an usually high match between sellers and buyers at that price yesterday.

Why would re-balancing of indices affect an end of day auction? The volume traded in the UT is given as 35,402,207 shares which is approximately 4.25% of OCDO's issued shares, given as 829,943,680 in the last RNS I found that made reference to it.

The auction consequently made up nearly 78% of OCDO shares traded today and represents a much larger volume than usual for the closing auction. Thursday's auction was large at approximately 7.88m with a fairly typical volume recently being between 1 and 2 million - although it can often be less than 1m.