Member Info for Boyobach

To be fair, JulesInTheCrown, I think VP’s point is well illustrated by the sp over the last six months, where a rebased comparison with MKS, which has experienced comparable growth, shows what the market thinks:

https://invst.ly/166gl3

Also, bearing in mind that many here insist that OCDO is primarily a Tech company, where would the sp have been without that growth?

‘Probably gonna hit 2000 by next Friday when they come back and see what a bargain price it is.’

Ha! Too many zeros, Max? OK, 200 may not be immediately on the cards (cue VP?) because I think support will still be found at 340, 300 and 280 if the slide continues to those levels: https://invst.ly/165isi (the green trend is just a token ‘positive’ inclusion that isn’t established but the blue strikes me as a bit of a warning for those who regard 278 as the bottom: https://invst.ly/165iyu )

Sweet bargain at 360+ ? OK, I must put my rose tinted specs on and recheck this ... https://invst.ly/163xmy

A point pf clarification, smalltime, you say: 'see it pushing over 400 in the short term given the resistance'

Did you mean 'given the support' (resistance prevents an sp rising beyond a given level until it is broken).

Hey smalltimeii, my most optimistic trend for OCDO currently looks …. er… optimistic:

https://invst.ly/1637wn (but at least I'm trying).

I see volumes are dropping off - is that a good sign? I’m getting mixed messages and need help.

I see that DanielLiang got five recommendations for saying ‘another upside trend just about to start’ , giving no reason, and Maximilian tells Sharma,’ this will likely be 1000 by Friday’ , whilst theoldmoot also gets five ‘likes’ for thinking ‘He'll be reeet when the initial bid lands, £10-£12 area’- without suggesting when or who or why…. So much hype, so little sense. OK, Maximilian is smarter than that but the depth of sheeet here (is that all reeet?) makes our water companies look ultra efficient.

Note for Sharma: Jokes can be more difficult to understand than apostrophes - trust nobody!!

So a bid for OCDO anytime soon might be a stretch?

Sharma2:

Buying more to ‘average-down’ will not change the loss or gain you’ll ultimately make per individual share - at best it lowers the net breakeven point, at worst it can lead to ever increasing losses. The risk is greater when a share is not in an established long-term rising trend.

If current losses are painful then averaging down will make the impact of any further drop even worse.

Everyone here has an opinion about OCDO but no one knows with certainty where the price will be in a week's time - you must exercise your own judgement.

The sp did recover from Thursday's 364 intraday low so the levelling out I suggested at the start of this thread has continued despite obvious downward pressure as the highs get squeezed and support at 380 has been pushed down slightly towards 375 by a red trend running parallel to the three year dominant one: https://invst.ly/162mnk . It’s not looking particularly encouraging with the first of two crunch points occurring this week and the second up to three weeks later. Just staying level through to mid September will be significant.

It‘s understandable that negative news and views tend to be badly received but they do at least help to moderate over-optimistic expectations . The positive green trend was clearly coming under some pressure, so the odds were tilted in favour of a further drop, which finally came this morning. Hopefully the sp will not continue lower than the fairly stable range it occupied for most of Q2 - ie 340-370, although further downside should not be ruled out. OCDO is OCDO, as waccy often points out, and my experience with it is that any investment in it needs to be closely managed to minimise losses and maximise gains.

With respect, I don’t think the Shropshire Gazette link provided game-changing news.

Although it has struggled back over 380 this morning, it doesn’t have a firm grip and the levelling-out looks rather fragile at the moment: https://invst.ly/160uy7

Just to keep smalltimeii happy - https://invst.ly/15-z7b

Precarious but valid green, might be gone like a Banksy original tomorrow.

It seems Jefferies 'hold' didn't shift the supply/demand dial.... I guess that's what 'hold' actually achieves if the punters are paying attention.

Much appreciated , Max, opinions aid debate and thinking, Thanks. I’ve followed a largely similar path and agree with pretty much all your points, although I’m not convinced senior management has done a great job overall - I don’t rate TS as highly as others apparently do.

Having sold out when it last went over 800 (crazily IMO) I reentered at a much more sensible level, intending to hold a core amount and trade the highs. OCDO hasn’t been a great winner for me since then as it needs constant attention to make the most of it . I saw last year’s Exane target and the gap at 380 (around today’s price) as useful markers but traded at various levels in the meantime. However, recent events have caused me to see the fundamentals as less promising than a year ago and positive arguments here haven’t been overly convincing of late - too much ‘hope’ and personality bashing, which is always a sign of weakness in substance. I consequently consider it overpriced currently, suspecting that it may not break the three year trend as I’d been genuinely expecting until I saw market reaction to the Sobeys news and Bernstein downgrade. There’s a trading statement later in September which may determine how the clash with that significant three year trend ultimately turns out. In the meantime, the charts haven’t indicated a tempting buy point for me since mid July but I'll keep an eye on them for a bit longer. ATB.

That’s a fair question, Max, although I would firstly point out that I posed questions to faithful investors which contained factual observations about the sp rather than any personal analysis in order to get their views. One bet I had with myself was that I would get comments back rather than answers - so thanks for confirming that.

I have held OCDO shares for most of the last three years and, if you have also done so, you will know that it has been impossible to do this without losing money unless you manage your investment by selling and buying at appropriate times. For the moment I am indeed ‘out’ and I'm considering a suitable re-entry at the right price or, of course, to move on to something that offers better prospects. But what is the right price and why? Over to you.

How do OCDO faithfuls here rate the debt package secured since the HY results and do they think it was more expensive than necessary? Do they regard the high coupon bonds as a fair measure of the risk associated with investment in OCDO? The market has been unequivocal and shorts haven’t retreated much - even starting to come back in again this week.

OCDO is currently in a three year downward trend which needs to be broken in order to prevent the sp falling to around 200 by the end of the year https://invst.ly/15-04t . That would represent a 550p loss (nearly 75%) over twelve months since late December’s peak of 750. The most recent chance for that essential break came two weeks ago when the sp hit 450 but it failed on the same day as the high-yield bond offering was announced in an RNS.

At current levels the next breakout opportunity should happen within the next few weeks as the tussle continues until there is a result.

The charts reflect the market's reaction to news, events and fundamentals: they are simply a tool for measuring market movement. You might navigate a ship by chart but you switch the radar off at your peril.

Incorrect on all points, as usual, smalltimeii.

That upward trend only became valid at close of play on Thursday. The reason I had not shown any other new positive trends since July 26th was because there weren’t any valid ones before Thursday's - and that one was marginal. In simple terms a positive trend is invalid and meaningless if it relies on the latest candle of a falling price series because a reversal is needed to establish an end to the price drop. For example: That green trend is already dead because (unsurprisingly) the sp fell sharply below it today. A potential but, as yet useless, replacement is here: https://invst.ly/15ztzy It is useless because it relies totally on today’s negative going candle which may not mark the end of an ongoing drop in price. It thus gives a very misleading positive impression because the trend has not been properly established using a known low point. Positive trends generally follow the lows, Negative trends generally follow the highs - for the obvious reason that lows are limited by upward buying pressure and highs are limited by downward selling pressure. Sometimes they converge.

It’s not my fault that there are few valid positive trends with OCDO recently - it’s simply that OCDO’s sp hasn't generated many.

It’s worth recalling that shorts published by shortrreacker peaked on May 30th at 8.27%, when the sp had just fallen from over 410 to 383 (ie today’s price range).

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B3MBS747/

So, following the drop in shorts when the sp rose during July, the increase back to 6.7% is not necessarily inconsistent, given all the circumstances and fundamentals that have emerged in recent weeks.

Today provided the best closing price this week for OCDO and, given that we should see at least three prices line up on trend, the day also provided the first rising trend to emerge for nearly two weeks: https://invst.ly/15z4aa . It’s still early stages and the sp might simply be levelling out but, for those who think I don't look for positive trends, It could become worth watching if the sp continues above it to 410 and ultimately challenges the dominant three year red trend again. For the sp to get back above 432 this month seems unrealistic to me but stranger things do happen with OCDO. Sometimes the trading instinct takes over from common sense.

Since the 50p drop? I don't think so!

OCDO is still around 80p down (-17%) on the 2023 FY.

The fact it's 37% up following the Kroger news and debt rearrangements but still 17% below the last FY results just illustrates how bad it got - not how good it is doing.

The lower the sp the bigger the percentages a few p generate: simple smoke and mirrors.

That’s been true for a while now, GDS.

Bearing in mind OCDO is in its 25th year and floated fourteen years ago at 180p, it really does need to start delivering - and I’m talking about investor fulfilment not just customer fulfilment. The market has registered its opinion on OCDO’s recent debt rearrangements by knocking 50p off the sp, which isn’t exactly a vote of enthusiasm for the deals that were struck. So, yes, a positive RNS would be welcome.