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I disagree profoundly with your first sentence. NO, you'd be earning a dividend of the value of the dividend divided by your buy price.

In calculating the benefit of either capital return or dividend return, the past is irrelevant; the calculations for any investment are based on that purchase, not any previous one.

You are welcome to the last word, I won't reply further, I'm happy to use maths as my logical support.

Couer..

Your second paragraph in your post At 09.26 is mathematically correct. If you end up holding shares which cost you nothing, then ANY dividend return is mathematically and effectively infinite, and indeed any shares bought at a company discount DO provide a yield greater than those bought at market prices. To repeat, YOUR divi YIELD is a function of YOUR price, NOT the market price.

Whatever dividend yield you see quoted is irrelevant, YOUR dividend yield is the annual return per share divided by YOUR average buy price.

Apologies for those who understand this, but I see many posts which suggest that it's not clear.

Just bought a few at 1730, which, although above the price at which I started selling a few months ago, is now comfortably below my average sale price of recent months. My suspicion is that it has at least a little further to go down from here, and might, if anything concrete comes from High-level talks over Ukraine, fall further and faster. If that is the case, I see it as a buying opportunity, defence lead times are measured in years, not months, and BAE has three years' worth of highly lucrative work in the bag. Yet again, IMV, the market is reacting too strongly to the merest hints of military stability in eastern Europe, which I see as far from a given.

Qantas, I have sought to explain some of the subtleties of shorting on these boards on a dozen occasions and yet still people like you post messages that demonstrate that they just don't get it.

ALMOST NOBODY (in their right mind) will hold a "naked short". The reasons for this are obvious: the risk of an enormous loss.

Your post summarises the cost of the recent rise to holders of short positions, BUT it is highly probable that those same companies actually hold OCDO stock, and like the rest of us, the value of those holdings has risen sharply.

So why would they hold a short position?

Fair question.

The answer is that, like all of us, they know OCDO is a very volatile stock; it has traded between £27 and £2.50in the last five years, so their short is actually INSURANCE against a fall, and as intended, it profits if and when the OCDO share price falls. BUT like all insurance, it is a cost which has NO benefit when things go your way. If your car doesn't break down, if your house isn't burgled, if your flight isn't delayed. BUT most sensible people take out that insurance and pay it year after year, just in case.

I'd hazard a bet that almost all the companies you listed are in NET PROFIT from OCDO's recent rise.

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/LGEN/l-g-half-year-results-2025/17170159

Boring, boring, boring

Core operating profit of £859m, up 6%; Core operating EPS of 10.94p, up 9%

· IFRS Profit before tax[2] of £406m, up 28%

· Solvency II capital generation of £729m up 3%, and Solvency II coverage ratio of 217%[3]

· CSM increased to £12.1bn (up £0.2bn on H1 2024), increasing our store of future profit to £13.1bn[4]

Interim dividend per share of 6.12p, up 2% in line with our guidance

· 90%[6] of £500m buyback announced at full year results now complete

One of my core holdings is doing the usual, steady, reliable growth, a good dividend making up for the slow SP rise. Eventually, people will see this is one of the most effective companies in the UK, and the sp will rise (gently). Meanwhile, I hold, happy to take reliable, substantial dividends.

The relief in today's rally is that, even if there are no fireworks, it signals the business continues to function reasonably well. Revenues are likely to be significantly above last year's (my words, not theirs)at approaching £400 million versus last year's £335 million and costs of £20 million to be taken out of a cost base of £260 million means that OP is also likely to be several times higher than last year's £10 mill.

Today's news tells us that YOU is over the worst and, while it's unlikely to retrieve the highs of a £1.5 billion market cap only 18 months ago, there is some significant potential upward SP movement from here.

I hold having averaged down heavily in recent months and will continue to hold for 50% + upward movement from here.

"The average breakeven price for offshore deepwater oil production is around $43 per barrel. However, this can vary significantly depending on the specific project and location, with some of the best projects in Brazil, for example, having breakeven costs below $30 per barrel."

lifted from an internet search, so depending on local geology, there is plenty of opportunity for profit.

I don't see oil prices falling sharply for some time, indeed I don't see oil exploration dropping off for some considerable time, the "green Lobby" are beginning to struggle to justify excessive claims for the alleged diminishing costs, and cost benefit ratios for much green energy depend absolutely on government subsidies, which, IMV will begin to suffer the cold light of forensic analysis.

Copied from @ENTRUSTTMF on X.

*JPMORGAN RAISES #OCDO OCADO PT TO 437(400) OVERWEIGHT.

The usual post-factum upgrades are beginning to come through. If you ever want to learn about last week's news , read a broker's report.....

Having seen the SP rise gently since I bought in, and now all that rise has been expunged in a few hours of trading, I have added significantly to my holding. The packaging industry is on a steady growth trend, which I don't see ending for some time. I'm a patient investor and can wait for a year or two until this share recovers. The absorption of the Schumacher acquisition seems to be proceeding well, and if, as I suspect, the flood of Chinese goods from Shein and Temu is curtailed by government action, packaged goods volumes shipped within and from the EU will rise.

This stock is never going to be a stratospheric riser, but I aim to hold well-managed stocks in industries with a " moat" .This is one, happy to hold for slow , steady growth in th business volumes and SP.

For those who don't know (how could you!), it's the title of an AC/DC song as well as being my position in RTO. Having initially bought at a tad over 400p in Jan 2024 and saying then that I might have to wait 12/18 months to turn a profit, I added at prices from 350p -382 p and the sp now (just) exceeds my average. Today's news suggests that the long-awaited fruits of the reorganisation and reorientation of the company are beginning to show in revenues(very slightly up)and, vitally, the N American operation is beginning to grow. I fear I may still have another 12 months to wait to see the sort of full recovery this company needs and its impact on the SP, but, reassured by today's news, I shall hold.

Incidentally, while on Holiday in Oz, I went to Fremantle to see the statue of Bon Scott and argue with locals that he wasn't as good as Newcastle's own Brian Johnson.........result inconclusive.

The phenomenon of an SP falling after relatively good results, though perhaps less good than the hopes/expectations of the market, is not new. As posted here, I held BAE for a couple of years, waiting patiently for the fact that there was a war going on in Europe to percolate through to the BAE SP. That has happened with vengeance this year, with a rise of more than 50% . As is often the case, my assumption that the increasing SP would eventually stabilise and even fall has taken longer than I expected. I exited my position progressively with sales in the 1700-1800 area.

NOW, I still think that the SP may fall a little further, as expectations currently exceed reality and profit taking is never wrong. I will keep watch and except in the unlikely event of hostilities ending in Ukraine, or EU governments failing to deliver on their commitments to rearming, I will be buying again , hoping for prices below today's as the reality of a PE ratio in the high twenties sinks in .

BAE is still in a long-term sweet spot, with several years of high-value work in the pipeline, but the market is sometimes ponderous; having decided that BAE is overpriced, it may keep on falling. Long-term investment here is safe.

....much notice of recommendations, but it's always interesting to read other perspectives on my holdings. See below

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1075547/rbc-backs-chesnara-with-320p-target-as-hsbc-life-deal-boosts-cash-flows-and-dividend-outlook-1075547.html

On the basis that positive write-ups are useful for exposure and sentiment, this will help a little.

It's worth noting that the extreme reaction in the SP here over the last few days is, at least in part, because OCDO shares are tightly held by a surprisingly small number of key players. Estimates vary, but it looks as though almost 90% of OCDO stock is in the hands of no more than a dozen holders. that, of course, means that moves, whether up or down are magnified by the shortage of stock for the markets to play with. Good news going up, not so good going down!

I attach an example of one analysis, which may not be completely accurate, but illustrates the approximate position

https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCADO-GROUP-PLC-6413974/company-shareholders/

While MCG's recent SP rise has been meteoric, it's worth noting that even now the MC is only £235mill, , the last forecast for this year's adjusted OP (admittedly the adjustment may be significant) is forecast to be £180-£195mill. On the basis that MCG is, and will continue to be, a going concern, then the upside from here is significant. I don't do number forecasts 'cos that's a mug's game , but sensible holders can realistically expect further significant SP gains, unless another bombshell appears. I hold.

Https://uk.investing.com/news/company-news/chesnara-completes-rights-issue-with-12-of-shares-placed-in-rump-93CH-4179974

It looks like the overhang from the RI has been placed with institutional holders fairly quickly, despite my reservations from yesterday. Augurs well for SP over the coming months unless issues with integrating the acquisition occur (unlikely IMV).

A strong hold.

Rough numbers(feel free to check/disagree)

The Ri will add just under 50% to the share count, bringing the no of shares in issue to 225 mill.

The rump of the RI to be dripped into the market is, again roughly,12% of 88 mill ie a little over 10.5 mill.

Daily average volume is ~330k

So the underwriters have to drip feed the market with around 30 days of turnover, which is either going to drive the price down, or hang around for weeks /months until digested, unless of course, a fund chooses to gobble up a load at a slight discount to the market price.

I hold and will continue to do so for the medium term, but given the above, I'm not expecting fireworks.

BIgma , in a rights issue, the directors are pretty much obliged to take up their rights; the optics of them not doing so would be catastrophic.

SEE

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CSN/announcement-re-rights-issue/17147111

Somewhat disappointing (IMV) take-up of 88% of the rights, whether through ignorance or reservations about the wisdom of the purchase. Remaining rights will be hawked around the market today and in the coming days, so expect a SP fall.

I am happy to hold for what will,I believe, be a SP recovery as the acquisition proceeds and is integrated.