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To those into charting where is the next difficult bit for this share price to rise through? 1.1m volume today, highest close for a month, hard to see it stay under 14 p for long…
Like many I’ve doubled down on this share so I’m a few pennies away from breaking even, so near but so far..!
Probably seeing it in context is more helpful;
"7.6 One of the high priority projects is the Offshore Minerals project, which is not yet planned or quantified. That project is likely to take several years to complete.
7.7 Putting that aside, if the prioritisation above were effective, it might reasonably be expected to result in completion of legislative drafting for both essential and high priority projects in 2024/25 (and that legislation might be passed before adjournment of the Assembly in 2025). It might be possible for work on some, but not all, medium priorities to be undertaken."
So my take on things is, if they don't prioritise then it might take several years, but if they do, then it could be sorted in 2024/25. Still it doesn't get around the fact, WHAT HAVE FIG BEEN DOING FOR THE PAST 14 YEAR!!!!!!!!!!
It's not like they didn't know this was coming, PMO were planning FID in 2016/17/20, etc, what have they been playing at. Navitas have been getting on with this, hiring here, there and everywhere, building teams of people, did FIG think they were just going through the motions! Having a laugh!
Too right the FIG should prioritise oil readiness, in the last part of the document Mogger kindly posted the link to, it says;
5. Oil readiness legislation (including Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Co-operation Regs and Petroleum Valuation)--------- Significant economic driver
7. Stanley Common Regs (use of Stanley Airport by oil industry)--------- Significant economic driver
The bywords are "Significant economic driver", so if FIG really wants the oil revenue they need to spend now and get the right people, or teams on the case to get things done. Anything can be done if you really want it, outsource the expertise if necessary, it will pay dividends, HUGE dividends to the Falklands population in the future and more importantly it will secure their future. But it needs sorting, you cannot have Navitas running at full speed and FIG are still in the blocks, no, not in the blocks, sat on the bench, still tying the laces on their Nike's!
Sorry, that's enough ranting for a Friday evening. Have a good weekend all.
LTT
Fair call but the FIG will need a team on this one subject. With just one individual on the case they will never complete the task.
I don't think it was construed as a positive. I think most people here just appreciate Moggers input and unending links to news referring to RKH.
How is this construed as a positive?
As always, great find Mogger.
It seems like they are drowning in work over there. For those who don't want to read the entire report, here are the most interesting parts:
- 7.6 One of the high priority projects is the Offshore Minerals project, which is not yet planned or quantified. That project is likely to take several years to complete
- They propose to prioritise Oil readiness legislation (including Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Co-operation Regs and Petroleum Valuation).
- There are two legislative drafters that are dedicated to the entire Programme of which one is already working almost entirely on the Offshore Minerals Programme.
- Offshore Minerals and Telecommunications remain MLAs’ top priorities
All,
A paper discussing what needs to be done to ensure all required legislation is in place in financial year 24/25.
FIG are certainly working hard in trying to get everything sorted.
Mogger
https://assembly.fig.gov.fk/executive-council/papers?task=download.send&id=4066&catid=622&m=0
Cleared for take off.
Hopefully.
The pressure is building, which is being seen with the spread narrowing to a really tight band. The price will now have to move up. Currently 13.7p to sell
Hope you are right Happy, if OM gets signed off I don’t see why not as it would see us with enough cash in the bank to see us to first oil without dilution.
If the annulment rules in our favor then I could see 25p+ and that is with Navitas not saying anything. If the announce a partner or funding or both, all bets are off and I would say we should be 30p+ and even then we would be well undervalued considering FID would be a done deal! Fingers crossed.
LTT
I think possibly as soon as close of play today to break 14p.
292,602 order on the bid at 13.6p now.
Share is still so cheap it hurts but would hope to see 20p sooner rather than late. When will we break out?
Oil look strong and stable so should be a real tailwind at this stage. And Latin American politics haven't looked this benign for a long time.
Am I being too optimistic that we will see 20p this quarter?
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Its a good sign,although their not exactly piling in.
That would also explain the penny or so increase to 13p as there hasn't been enough P.I buying to push this up a penny.
Were approaching the 5 month of the year now, only another 5 before (hopefully) the action starts.
0.88%
Charles Stanley & Co. Ltd, Asset Management Arm 5,631,537 UK£757.4k -9.8% 0.01%
0.85%
Fourton Fund Management Co. Ltd 5,434,742 UK£731.0k 0% 0.33%
0.83%
Jarvis Securities plc, Asset Management Arm 5,284,191 UK£710.7k -5.09% 0.06%
0.74%
Samuel Moody 4,713,584 UK£634.0k 17.9% no data
0.67%
Quilter Investors Limited 4,314,574 UK£580.3k 43.9% 0.03%
0.65%
Saxo Bank A/S, Asset Management Arm 4,143,633 UK£557.3k -10.7% 0.06%
0.56%
Investec Wealth & Investment Limited 3,550,542 UK£477.5k 5.83% no data
0.53%
Evelyn Partners Investment Management LLP 3,396,025 UK£456.8k -5.81% 0.01%
0.49%
Commerzbank AG, Asset Management Arm 3,162,031 UK£425.3k 8.84% 0.01%
0.49%
Lloyds Banking Group plc 3,138,138 UK£422.1k 17.3% no data
0.49%
Brewin Dolphin Limited 3,127,505 UK£420.7k -7.1% no data
0.48%
Close Asset Management Ltd. 3,081,741 UK£414.5k -5.22% 0.01%
0.45%
JPMorgan Chase & Co, Private Banking and Investment Banking Investments 2,862,056 UK£384.9k 0% no data
0.37%
Fidelity International Ltd 2,346,711 UK£315.6k 68.4% no data
Chaps, Simply Wall Street and FT have updated their Major Shareholder lists and evidently there has been positive increases from a number of institutions
7.67%
Aedos Advisers (London) LLP 49,048,900 UK£6.6m -5.02% 95.73%
7.54%
HBOS Investment Fund Managers Limited 48,187,583 UK£6.5m 2.15% 0.06%
5.64%
Barclays Bank PLC, Wealth and Investment Management Division 36,082,473 UK£4.9m 2.84% 0.06%
4.09%
UBS Asset Management AG 26,119,909 UK£3.5m 22.2% no data
3.82%
HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited 24,422,326 UK£3.3m 5.47% no data
3.81%
RAB Capital Limited 24,358,528 UK£3.3m 21.8% 33.53%
3.25%
A J Bell Holdings Limited, Asset Management Arm 20,769,703 UK£2.8m 6.61% 0.03%
3.08%
Credit Suisse, Investment Banking and Securities Investments 19,699,568 UK£2.6m 50.4% 0.01%
1.25%
IG Group Holdings Plc, Asset Management Arm 7,963,289 UK£1.1m 0.51% 0.1%
1.18%
Bank of Singapore Limited, Asset Management Arm 7,554,962 UK£1.0m 4.63% 0.13%
0.9%
Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc., Banking Investments 5,770,253 UK£776.1k 15.3% no data
All,
I believe Sean is new to the team
https://www.falklands.gov.fk/mineralresources/about-us/staff/oil-and-gas-staff/6-sean-hayes
https://www.linkedin.com/in/sean-hayes-46475925
Looks like he's had a lot of previous experience with the project
Mogger
If your hops are in vain, then there won't be much brewing !!
What are our hopes right now? 13.6 p rather than 13.4 p?? The SP has been in a tight price band for a while now…I’m not sure if I’m that bothered if it goes up or down…as long as it does something…
Is there something brewing or are our hops in vain ?
HULLBIST
BULL SH..
My take on this is that it's Navitas business model to reduce risk significantly by investing in projects that are already discovered. This way there is not really a risk in IF it get's developed, but only in WHEN and if it will be on budget. What I also like is that Gideon is someone that delivers time and time again. If we take his word, this will mean that Sealion will definitely be developed (otherwise Navitas wouldn't even have participated) and that it will be very likely that it will be on time and on/under budget.
Part 4:
That you encounter what you expected to encounter because with the ground it's very hard to influence everything else can be arranged why run to additional projects because in the end a company or a partnership in this case like Nevitas is built from a portfolio of projects that's exactly what I did also in Israel there was Yam Tatis people like you asked me why are you going to Tamar isn’t Yam Tatis enough if we hadn't gone to Tamar where would we be today as a country why after Tamar are we going to Leviathan isn’t Tamar enough what was your reach to some limits to exploit our relative advantage to think outside the box which is a cliché but in our case let's mark it I can tell you that around the world we are seen as a company that is a kind of magic but what’s important the ability to do it again and again the other important thing is the right timing of the projects not to cash too much in investments in a project until the project is not ripe and that's something we did in the past and we are doing it today in Nevit that’s another advantage that the institutional bodies told me before a conversation with you that you manage to achieve financial closure before before the initial investments the investments are actually already closed in advance how do you do that against the I'll show you it was very very challenging especially with Shennanduah in 2021 when ESG someone remembers those three letters ESG once were very relevant recently less popular but people refrained from lending bodies banks filled up from raising for a fossil project because of the ESG today that has changed I can tell you that all the bodies all the bodies even those that previously refrained today are sitting in Nevitas both in equity and in debt it gives us tremendous power without the Israeli equity market we wouldn't be able to I see it generally as a partnership between us to the capital market in Israel without them we wouldn't reach where we are arriving and we specialize in financial closures of project developments and in 20 21 when there was the greatest difficulty we managed to close the funding for us and for our partners for the project Shennanduah I commend you continue success well done on the entrepreneurship and I think the letter of course that happened deserves to you with grace well done thank you very much and I also want to wish everyone a happy and kosher holiday and may we all know good news and the chair of Elijah the prophet that we always keep just in this case I think it's the chair of the captives and the abducted that we all hope will return in bitterness.
Part 3:
I did a very rough calculation at the bottom line there will be half a billion at the minimum even a bit more we're talking about close to two billion shekels the value of the partnerships is 4 billion shekels what are the investors missing see I think there's a process that we see it you talked about the dramatic rise right that happened this year we went up on the stock exchange by 85% this year we went up by an order of magnitude of 20% so eventually here the market matures to recognize the economic potential and the realization of the economic potential and that's the strength of entrepreneurs by the way there were entrepreneurs here before me who really established here a magnificent industry and they also saw before the market so in a sense we see before the market but I ah that's apropos whether to sell or buy tomorrow morning so as you see me I run for long distances I don't run for short distances so I take a long-term view I very much believe of course in Nets as I believed before in what I did in Delek in Avner and in Delek Drilling at the time what is called today Vament so I think that this potential we are definitely able to realize again in a very unique tag in the world not of renewables here most of the income was from renewables but in the old good fossil world which by the way will remain with us for many many more years and I think there are tremendous opportunities there a value of 10 billion shekels for Nevitas within two three years are possible in your opinion I don't give forecasts but I say again we publish numbers and numbers based on reports done by third parties our task is to realize them but as you said assuming those numbers materialize then the arithmetic is very very simple dividends to investors we said that in our opinion when we are very close to the start of the operation of Shennanduah we will definitely publish a dividend policy as we think we are definitely moving from a phase from a certain company to a company that also knows to distribute dividends so this is definitely something that is in our work plan what risk could there be that the oil production of the project I don't see a risk that will prevent the production but as I said in mega projects always there can be time delays and there can always be additional costs but you have to remember that this project is almost there we have already invested 70% of the money so it is a project that is already in very very very advanced stages of ripening and the biggest risks always are underground and we in this drilling have already drilled three out of four development drillings and this is the risk that always worries me the most when you drill a development drilling.
Part 2:
So wait so let me return to the numbers with your permission the numbers say something like taking the profit and actually valuing it today as Gideon said there is risk there's a development risk still existing but if you adjust it with an interest rate of 10% it reaches values of billions of dollars the part of Nets will take the financing take the funding take other things you still arrive at a value that is dramatically higher than the current value despite a rise of 2.5 times in the stock price it's not a recommendation of course there are risks a small risk realized recently yes there was an accident during the construction of one of the facilities supposed to be part of the project we reported that it's not significant and also reported on a slight delay in the start of production but these are mega projects and mega projects have their complexities but the important point is that there is certainty that Shennanduah will be developed there can always be delays there can always be additional costs although all the projects I developed or was involved in including Tamar including Yam Tatis including Leviathan and also a project in Caskin of Nevitas abroad finished on time and on budget so I'm very good in this regard but anyone who renovated a bathroom at home or I would say a kitchen knows there can be such and other issues but if you take first-line contractors these projects end and end successfully it's like building a power station okay the end is supposed to be in 20-25 the start of production from Shennanduah which is our flagship project the start of production is supposed to be in the second quarter of 2025 okay the year of full production is supposed to yield with the current oil price over a billion dollars in revenue all Nets with the start of production from Shennanduah all the parameters any parameter you choose the production per day the revenue all parameters you choose will be multiplied by about 10 times 10 the moment Shennanduah starts to produce and we already have the project after Shennanduah which is the Silyn project which is the next big thing you’re not resting why rest so many partners on entrepreneurship really but just to understand what the market is missing if at all because usually the market is correct we have a year full of production revenues of a billion.
Here's a translation Part 1:
Inviting Avishai Ovadia for a discussion with Gideon. Tadmor, the founder and head of Jets Tadmor, who was in management under the management of Delek Group during the discovery of gas at Tamar. He established Nevita which purchased drilling rights worldwide and enhanced them, this is reflected in significant value creation. The stock has risen by 2.5 times year-over-year to a value of 4 billion shekels. Where do we go from here? Hello, how are you? Thanks for coming, I'm glad you’re all settling into the chairs here, it seems to me, Tzachi, that’s you, Gideon. I want to start with a question to the audience. A theoretical question: You invested in a stock that rose by 150%—do you think the chance of staying with it is high or low, and in your opinion, high? Good, you know what I’m aiming for but the natural choice, let’s call it that, of investors after a stock rises 150% to 200% is to cash out, and rightly so it usually means there are usually drops after rises, right? If the value has already increased then why keep holding? There are other things I'm saying this without necessarily giving advice or stating anything, but I’m saying it in continuation to the fact that last night I read the reports of Nevitas. Ah, and about a year or a year and a half ago we followed them and saw very significant potential especially in one of the largest drilling projects we of course, we write what we believe in, it has risen since and I told myself last night for sure it’s nearing its peak but I keep reading, and not just reading, there are very significant tables that speak of very significant saturations. Okay, I will do it very roughly take the expected profit if and when the partnership reaches the end of the drilling in what’s called Shennanduah. Shennanduah, I keep getting it a little wrong I'm dyslexic, I understand you’re promoting now you’re encouraging, ah so it’s not a drilling it’s a project and it needs explaining because it’s very important it’s part of our strategy we’re not looking for oil we develop and produce and therefore it’s not theoretical the challenge is to develop which is the non-binary challenge it’s about finding but the challenge to develop is much less challenging in that sense if you take financing for it maybe one of the arbitrage situations known to them the ability actually to go to the Israeli capital market and bring from it both equity and especially debt for the development of projects that have already been discovered that’s what we know how to do by the way it’s a strategy I think is unique in the world in this upstream sector so these numbers actually represent the NPV.