Member Info for HappyInvestor100

Hexam.

By not selling you HAVE made a loss. You just haven't realised your loss. Big difference. I realised my loss to partly use it as a tax loss.

Anyway, I wish you luck getting your lowly 35. If that's the sum total of your ambition, you could easily have sold earlier and bought something you actually believed in as an investment.

Anyway we both want the SP to rise which it seems to be doing. A lot of potential catalysts are not priced in. I think Trump be very good for BOO. Just a massive shame we called time on your US distribution hub seemingly prematurely.

All IMHO DYOR

Happy

Hexam

Price predictions are opinions. And obviously not every opinion will be right. Hardly a big deal. That's the market - different opinions, different outcomes.

But why do you spend so much time being utterly miserable here? I'm amazed you haven't sold Boohoo. Why are you self-flaggellating by holding Boohoo?

All IMHO DYOR

Happy

parsnip

haha.

it's longer than the longest thingy you can think of...

shein buying debenhams brand would put a rocket up ma's **** too. i smell a bidding war.

all imho dyor

happy

They will are coming for us. Chinese won't want to be called Shien and Temu for much longer to avoid unwanted scrutiny. They'll rent to rebrand as Debenhams and keep a lower profile.

Ignore the derampers. They've had their day.

It's time to go long long long.

All IMHO DYOR

Happy

Better sales / better pricing power / better macro.

Don't miss out on the 100% rally.

All IMHO DYOR

Happy

It'll blow the cobwebs away.

All IMHO DYOR

Happy

Good news is coming.

Better trading / better pricing power / better macro climate.

You take your picks and puts down yet chips.

Target a modest 75 by year end

All IMHO DYOR

Happy

Surely a great play on UK economic growth?

All IMHO DYOR

Happy

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CHAR/return-of-moroccan-offshore-interests/17034706

This windows won't last forever. SP could easily shoot to 500 by end of year without a bid.

If they're going to act, time is now.

All IMHO DYOR

Happy

Https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2025/05/10/tullow-oil-gas-falling-prices/

WP

You and I know most BP production is in the US. There's nothing practical UK government can do to stop a takeover. An acquirer wouldn't want the UK convenience business anyway. What else is left?

If necessary to support a takeover BP can easily move primary listing to US.

UK government can't hate fossil fuels while at the same time claiming they're vital for national security.

All IMHO DYOR

Happy

All IMHO DYOR

Happy

Https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/05/05/congress/senators-unveil-bipartisan-plan-to-lower-drug-costs-00326246

I am still holding. I think the legislation will get watered down.

All IMHO DYOR

Happy

Hahaha thank you for your infinite wisdom and for taking your precious time to share it so graciously with mere mortals. Now go back to mummy's basement...

:-)

MPO818

Totally agree.

This it'll-never-get-past-the-regulators does the rounds every time there's a takeover rumour. As you point out it's a fundamentally spurious argument.

Also, BP has very little upstream production in the UK so easy response to any pesky British regulator would be to move HQ to Houston. Ain't nought the crazy Labour government can do to stop that.

All IMHO DYOR

Haroon

To be clear Wael Sawan has not said Shell won't consider acquisitions. If you read his full remarks, he stressed the bar for value was very high and any acquisition would need to be cash flow accretive in the short term. BP easily ticks those boxes.

I am not saying anything will happen. It's right to say similar rumours have circulated for a long while. Suffice to say as I own both and believe both to be materially undervalued, I am not concerned by any outcome.

I think the real wildcard is a restive activist in Elliot Asset Management that wishes to monetise hidden value in the near term. Maybe this time the stars will finally align.

All IMHO DYOR

Happy

WP

I think the market price is a much better barometer of overall confidence than votes at an AGM. People tend to vote best with their feet!

Many institutions may be unhappy but not want to be confrontational. Elliot say they have a lot of support for their campaign. As for my individual opinion not being important, same could be said for anyone's. I am certain many retail investors and institutions share my deep scepticism about the Murray and the Board's basic competence.

Even if the bid were partly in cash, there would be nothing stopping ex-BP shareholders buying Shell-BP shares on the open market. So not sure what you mean by being "wiped out".

All IMHO DYOR

Happy

WP

I don't have any confidence in Murray's ability to deliver nor does the market. He tore up previous EBITDA targets of which he was partially the architect with Looney. Why should I believe he can execute the new strategy?

Many BP shareholders also hold Shell. Price will be an issue but BP shareholders would retain upside within the enlarged group especially because Shell is also undervalued.

I think Chevron will also be interested. They are still in a protracted process to buy Hess but if they can abandon that bid, BP offers them a much deeper and attractive portfolio of undervalued assets.

All IMHO DYOR

Happy

I do agree. There have so many predictions of bid interest it's become something of a running joke. However, given where the SP it would quite astonishing if there was no bid interest. And management is an extremely weak position given the missteps of the past that have come back to haunt us. And with Elliot breathing down their necks.

I do think Shell need BP more than the market understands. Shell has made a massive bet on LNG and integrated gas which is paying off impressively but I think Shell's liquids pipeline looks a little light. This is where BP can offer very high quality liquids assets such as Permian and Gulf of America.

Of course, cost synergies would be enormous and realised over several years.

As you say, let's wait and see. I'm happy to hold and keep picking up the dividend in the meantime.

All IMHO DYOR

Happy