The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I increased my trading long in response to SP fall. We are about 10% below weekly peak. Positive trend is firmly set against easing economic backdrop. I think it will bounce today.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
That must be a near world record premium.
I don't hold any stock. Just wanted to say congratulations.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Mars buying Hotel Chocolat for a whopping 170% premium.
I'm not saying the same will happen to Boohoo but it potentially illustrates just how undervalued some stocks on the LSE are.
https://news.sky.com/story/mars-to-pay-163534m-for-hotel-chocolat-13009360
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Apologies for typos in previous post
"Whether it *amounts to anything."
Spk999
Thank you for sharing.
It's very encouraging to see political opinion being galvanised against Shien and Temu. Whether it accounts to anything concrete remains to be seen. But if the Republicans are elected we are likely to see a much tougher anti-China stance in the US.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Agree, Jeremy. Same in my portfolio.
But if you look at stocks that have done very well over the past few trading sessions (both here and in the US), they are more likely to be underperforming the market today. For me, these are normal market gyrations and nice trading opportunities.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
I know SP can volatile on low volume but does anyone know of any reason for the spike?
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
A bit of weakness across the pond due to better-than-expected retail sales putting some upward pressure on yields. That's permeating across global markets including London. UK shares are a bit weak.
According to Bloomberg, market is pricing a reduction of 0.5% by July in the Feds Funds Rate.
Very interesting time for economy watchers. I remain very bullish on Boohoo and, in addition to keeping my large core holding, I will try to trade these dips. I think our SP will firm when US opens (although it's near impossible to forecast very short-term movements).
My first target is 59.5p the one-year high reached in March 2023. I think the macro tailwind is enough to reach that level. Then, I will look to positive Christmas trading to provide the next catalyst.
This is gonna be a fun ride...
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Pokerchips
Obviously you are right. But you're wasting your time with them. They are stuck in their ways.
To add, fixed mortgage rates which are driven by gilt yields and interest rates swaps have come down substantially, too. 5-year fixed mortgage rates of 4% may be available early in the new year or, possibly, even sooner.
All this puts extra money in consumers' pockets. Of course, there are risks but the economic backdrop has not looked this benign for a long time.
And management has taken the time to put our company in great shape for renewed sales growth.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2023/11/hsbc-and-halifax-cut-mortgage-rates-as-price-war-continues?source=newsticker
I'm amazed the shorters didn't get out sooner. What were they waiting for? Powell and Bailey to tell them when lol.
Big short squeeze coming. Events over the next several trading sessions will test my thesis that shorters will struggle to find the shares. They certainly ain't getting mine lol.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Also, CPI inflation was 0% between September 2023 and October 2023. This much less publicised figure is important because it isn't subject to whims of big base effects that affect usual year-on-year comparison.
Inflation is headed back to 2% and rates could well be slashed in 2024.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Core lower than expectations
Big rally in UK stocks possible.
Fly my 10-bagger babies, fly ...
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Pokerchips
You are spot on and clearly have an understanding of how the bond markets interact with the Feds Funds Rate etc. Anyone getting a mortgage in the UK already knows interest rates are falling because gilt yields drive fixed mortgage rates, not the BOE base rate. Base rates will come down in due course. Market is already pricing that in and credit conditions are easing significantly.
I am hoping for a pullback tomorrow because I would like to top up. But it's time for growth stocks to shine and we may have a follow through rally following a strong close on Wall Street.
If Boohoo can throw in a positive trading statement at some, that would really set the cat amongst the shorter pigeons.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Very strong day for growth stocks in the US and I think we will have a robust follow-through rally.
Https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/traders-see-no-more-fed-rate-increases-cuts-start-may-2023-11-14/
As a growth stock that is so deeply undervalued, the future is very exciting.
I will top up on any significant dips. My last buy was just above 28 but not sure we will that again.
Looking forward to a Christmas trading update, which could be a big catalyst.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Hexam
If you really are a shareholder, you are the most negative shareholder I have come across. I can only imagine, at best, you don't hold very many shares otherwise why would spend every effort trying to undermine others?
To note, Jeremy and others are right to challenge my figures, which rely on data from Marketscreener and Short Tracker. I specifically asked others to help check them because I can't be sure the source data is right.
Stop being so miserable and enjoy the rise.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
The free float IS small relative to the other shorted stocks (table illustrates that quite clearly). How is that factually wrong?
Anyway, each to their own.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Free float of 5 most shorted stock (Short Tracker and Marketscreener). Not sure if the source data is accurate.
1/ ASOS short: 6.8% free float: 57.03%
2/ Boohoo short: 6.4% free float: 57.62%
3/ Metro Bank short: 6.4% free float 83.58
4/ Kingfisher short: 5.8% free float: 99.54%
5/ Hargreaves Lansdown short: 5.4% free float: 71.6%
So ASOS and Boohoo are most shorted and have by far the smallest free float.
We can calculate an adjusted short figure based on free float e.g. for Boohoo this is 1/.5762 * 5.8% = 10.06%. Adjusted short figure reflects the fact that short position can only be closed from the available free float. All things being equal, the smaller the free float, the higher the adjusted short position. So I did this for all of above:
Adjusted short figure:
1/ ASOS 11.92%
2/ Boohoo 10.06%
3/ Metro Bank 7.66%
4/ Kingfisher 5.82%
5/ Hargreaves Lansdown 7.54%
Happy for someone to challenge logic or correct figures etc., but broadly this illustrates the huge task shorters face. Not only are Boohoo / ASOS by far the most shorted but they have a smaller free float and therefore true picture is worse for shorters. Also, many PIs won't sell (me!) so actual free free may be even less. Finally, in terms of upside risk we can all agree that the top two shorted have the greatest volatility and upside risk.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
This aged well lol. Wish I had topped up earlier rather than waste time arguing with some posters here. I will top up again on any weakness. This will be a sustained rally over weeks and months. I'm in for the long haul.
US growth stocks motoring in pre-market. As I said, we should align to growth stocks as inflation and bond yields ease in anticipation of lower rates, which will come in due course.
Sorry if my posts trigger some. I have had brilliant success over the last three years growing my portfolio, but I am so, so excited by Boohoo. That's why I get carried away sometimes lol.
I am gonna make a crazy amount of money here...
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Free float is small.
Will shorters be cremated or get crushed at the exit in a stampede?
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Shorts about to be cremated.
First big rally will be driven by panicking shorts. Thereafter, better sales growth needs to get us back to a fairer valuation. Everything in place for a very strong SP recovery.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy