Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
A bit of weakness across the pond due to better-than-expected retail sales putting some upward pressure on yields. That's permeating across global markets including London. UK shares are a bit weak.
According to Bloomberg, market is pricing a reduction of 0.5% by July in the Feds Funds Rate.
Very interesting time for economy watchers. I remain very bullish on Boohoo and, in addition to keeping my large core holding, I will try to trade these dips. I think our SP will firm when US opens (although it's near impossible to forecast very short-term movements).
My first target is 59.5p the one-year high reached in March 2023. I think the macro tailwind is enough to reach that level. Then, I will look to positive Christmas trading to provide the next catalyst.
This is gonna be a fun ride...
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Pokerchips
Obviously you are right. But you're wasting your time with them. They are stuck in their ways.
To add, fixed mortgage rates which are driven by gilt yields and interest rates swaps have come down substantially, too. 5-year fixed mortgage rates of 4% may be available early in the new year or, possibly, even sooner.
All this puts extra money in consumers' pockets. Of course, there are risks but the economic backdrop has not looked this benign for a long time.
And management has taken the time to put our company in great shape for renewed sales growth.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2023/11/hsbc-and-halifax-cut-mortgage-rates-as-price-war-continues?source=newsticker
I'm amazed the shorters didn't get out sooner. What were they waiting for? Powell and Bailey to tell them when lol.
Big short squeeze coming. Events over the next several trading sessions will test my thesis that shorters will struggle to find the shares. They certainly ain't getting mine lol.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Also, CPI inflation was 0% between September 2023 and October 2023. This much less publicised figure is important because it isn't subject to whims of big base effects that affect usual year-on-year comparison.
Inflation is headed back to 2% and rates could well be slashed in 2024.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Core lower than expectations
Big rally in UK stocks possible.
Fly my 10-bagger babies, fly ...
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Pokerchips
You are spot on and clearly have an understanding of how the bond markets interact with the Feds Funds Rate etc. Anyone getting a mortgage in the UK already knows interest rates are falling because gilt yields drive fixed mortgage rates, not the BOE base rate. Base rates will come down in due course. Market is already pricing that in and credit conditions are easing significantly.
I am hoping for a pullback tomorrow because I would like to top up. But it's time for growth stocks to shine and we may have a follow through rally following a strong close on Wall Street.
If Boohoo can throw in a positive trading statement at some, that would really set the cat amongst the shorter pigeons.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Very strong day for growth stocks in the US and I think we will have a robust follow-through rally.
Https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/traders-see-no-more-fed-rate-increases-cuts-start-may-2023-11-14/
As a growth stock that is so deeply undervalued, the future is very exciting.
I will top up on any significant dips. My last buy was just above 28 but not sure we will that again.
Looking forward to a Christmas trading update, which could be a big catalyst.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Hexam
If you really are a shareholder, you are the most negative shareholder I have come across. I can only imagine, at best, you don't hold very many shares otherwise why would spend every effort trying to undermine others?
To note, Jeremy and others are right to challenge my figures, which rely on data from Marketscreener and Short Tracker. I specifically asked others to help check them because I can't be sure the source data is right.
Stop being so miserable and enjoy the rise.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
The free float IS small relative to the other shorted stocks (table illustrates that quite clearly). How is that factually wrong?
Anyway, each to their own.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Free float of 5 most shorted stock (Short Tracker and Marketscreener). Not sure if the source data is accurate.
1/ ASOS short: 6.8% free float: 57.03%
2/ Boohoo short: 6.4% free float: 57.62%
3/ Metro Bank short: 6.4% free float 83.58
4/ Kingfisher short: 5.8% free float: 99.54%
5/ Hargreaves Lansdown short: 5.4% free float: 71.6%
So ASOS and Boohoo are most shorted and have by far the smallest free float.
We can calculate an adjusted short figure based on free float e.g. for Boohoo this is 1/.5762 * 5.8% = 10.06%. Adjusted short figure reflects the fact that short position can only be closed from the available free float. All things being equal, the smaller the free float, the higher the adjusted short position. So I did this for all of above:
Adjusted short figure:
1/ ASOS 11.92%
2/ Boohoo 10.06%
3/ Metro Bank 7.66%
4/ Kingfisher 5.82%
5/ Hargreaves Lansdown 7.54%
Happy for someone to challenge logic or correct figures etc., but broadly this illustrates the huge task shorters face. Not only are Boohoo / ASOS by far the most shorted but they have a smaller free float and therefore true picture is worse for shorters. Also, many PIs won't sell (me!) so actual free free may be even less. Finally, in terms of upside risk we can all agree that the top two shorted have the greatest volatility and upside risk.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
This aged well lol. Wish I had topped up earlier rather than waste time arguing with some posters here. I will top up again on any weakness. This will be a sustained rally over weeks and months. I'm in for the long haul.
US growth stocks motoring in pre-market. As I said, we should align to growth stocks as inflation and bond yields ease in anticipation of lower rates, which will come in due course.
Sorry if my posts trigger some. I have had brilliant success over the last three years growing my portfolio, but I am so, so excited by Boohoo. That's why I get carried away sometimes lol.
I am gonna make a crazy amount of money here...
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Free float is small.
Will shorters be cremated or get crushed at the exit in a stampede?
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Shorts about to be cremated.
First big rally will be driven by panicking shorts. Thereafter, better sales growth needs to get us back to a fairer valuation. Everything in place for a very strong SP recovery.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
The days and weeks ahead will test whether Boohoo behaves like a true growth stock as inflation and the yield curve eases.
I expect a good rally this week on easing inflation pressures.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Hexam
Are you saying they set a target knowing they could not achieve it? Why would they agree to an unachievable target and, if they did, how would that incentivise them?
Simple question: do you think they can achieve it? I do.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
DTN
Do you agree Boohoo can deliver their published share price growth plan? It's not my opinion lol. It's in an RNS.
I don't know why quoting an RNS is triggering you lol.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
DTN
You keep changing your angle of attack when I prove your wrong. You asked for evidence that I didn't make up my potential 10-bagger claim. I presented you with Boohoo's own share price growth plan that forecasts a 1,096% increase in the SP from today's price albeit within 5 years from February 2023.
It's for each individual investor to decide whether they believe the growth plan. I do. That's why I am invested here. As for being sad about first buying in at 170, I most certainly am not. I've had an incredible three years of gains thanks largely to oil and gas and US tech. I have a very large and diverse portfolio. I've lost out on Boohoo for now, but I am certain they will come good. I last bought at c.28p so yes I've been averaging down.
You were a crazed a deramper once. Are we now to believe, you are the voice of reason? Pull the other one lol!
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Growth Plan RNS 16 February 2023 for information:
https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/boohoo-group--boo/growth-share-plan/7482115
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
DTN
Dear me. Can you not read:
"At a £5.0bn market capitalisation, the company's share price will be approximately £3.95, a 747% increase on the last closing share price of 46.65p'
But based on today's price, the gain would be 1,096% - a 10-bagger.
That's what I am invested for.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
A reminder.
From Sharevast 16 Feb, 2023. Boohoo announcement a new share price Growth Plan:
"On the basis of full utilisation and full vesting, the growth plan will result in a maximum dilution of approximately 6.06% for existing shareholders. To achieve full vesting across all five price hurdles, the company's market capitalisation will be required to reach a minimum of £5.0bn, creating implied shareholder value of around £4.4bn over the term of the growth plan," said Boohoo.
"At a £5.0bn market capitalisation, the company's share price will be approximately £3.95, a 747% increase on the last closing share price of 46.65p or representing a minimum 53% CAGR over the term of the proposed plan. The number of awards issued during the measurement period and the associated Boohoo share price hurdles are set such that the maximum value of awards under the growth plan will, as at the date of the performance conditions being achieved, be £175.0m."
Of course, things haven't gone well for the SP since but if they achieve the Growth Plan from today's price, that will be 1,096% on today's price.
This is not something I've made up. This is THEIR growth plan and I still believe it is achievable.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy