Member Info for Dartron

03-Dec-25 17:32:07 185.80 447,900 Unknown* 183.60 184.00 832.20k O

03-Dec-25 17:27:01 185.80 500,000 Unknown* 183.60 184.00 929.00k O

03-Dec-25 17:26:52 185.80 500,000 Unknown* 183.60 184.00 929.00k O

They said in July:

As of 30 July 2025, adjusted EBITDA consensus is £276.1m, based on estimates by all eight analysts providing estimates to the Company, ranging from £271.9m to £280.8m.

They said today:

we expect full-year adjusted Group EBITDA for FY25 to be around the bottom end of our guidance range of £270m to £285m.

That is about a 1% reduction, so why would the share price drop 15%. I hope the activists are here to hoover the shares up. Spire needs to go, the perennial disappointer.

The big money comes from the big move. Come on GBG, £3.30

Yeah, I sold some at 340p, expecting a retracement. Shorts have made this one too dangerous to dip in and out of. No way would I reload above 350. If it goes it goes. I have pension invested here, so happy with the gain, but a smash down to 320 would suit me, to reload 😅

Markets agree. I think the trade has passed here now, I see way better opportunities around. Would need to drop lower to tempt me back, no way are we out of the woods yet.

BatM total share holder return:

3 months +20% on no volume and a 680k contract 🤣

6 months +15%

12 months 0%

18 month -10%

24 months -10%

36 months -20%

5 years -85%

Not the best of investments, when you consider inflation, and that the FTSE is up 20% year to date. Imagine what extra return you would have factoring in dividends of around 5% on top of a F100 investment, not to mention the compounding over years.

We all know you guys have been here since it dropped from 80p, so if you are really invested (I'm dubious) then your total return is around -75%, so lets not pretend anyone has made money here other than insiders and promoters.

It still does not explain all that volume we saw on 2 occasions. Something is brewing here. Shorts will try and push this down now, to recover the losses on the dividend. I think after the volume dries up it should re rate. With multiple funds buying at the current price, it validates the thesis here, and shows that the shorts are well in to the danger zone. The interesting thing with Yougov is the tight float, its going to be hard for shorts to cover IMO. They cant rely on uk funds selling, as those very funds have all just bought. I would also say the window for a low value take over is closing (its not shut) so if there is a buyer out there, they need to move soon, before this re rates.

I have suspected for some time, that MACF could be of interest to a buyer. MACF is currently trading below net tangible assets, and generating a historic FCF yield of about 20% currently (based on 2024 results vs 2025 share price, which is temporary). Now we see the pension fund being positioned for a buy in, Which would appeal to a buyer.

Once the pension buy-in happens:

The share becomes much more attractive to:

Private equity buyers

Trade buyers (DS Smith type)

Valuation multiples immediately expand

The discount for pension risk disappears

Cashflow becomes cleaner

Takeover becomes more likely, not less

I doubled up at 65p, buying £1 for 50p IMO.

I sold out of IOM as I felt it had become over valued.

Revenue up 25%, but that’s Atech padding; organic is down £6m.

Adj. EBITDA £12.9m vs £17m → margin still compressing, no turnaround yet.

Adj. PBT –£2.5m vs +£4.3m → losing money once interest is accounted for.

Net debt £109.6m, up from £101.9m. It means cash flow isn’t covering the load; debt’s still creeping up.

Cash flow from ops £8.4m vs £11.1m → also slipping.

No progress or hint of progress on strategic reviews like selling something to manage debt, or restructuring data centres. And if you keep reading I detect some bearish notes about what customers want for AI, which they admit they don't offer.

Stock was well ahead of itself at 25p. I don't see a opportunity here now, its like the recovery is already priced in and it hasn't happened.

Https://carltonpackaging.com/uk/about/

Saw one of these lorries out and about and took a look online. They operate in a similar sector. Worth keeping an eye on the competition.

There are 4 shorts here, they will all need shares. We should also be entering the Ftse250 index after the next reshuffle, that should trigger buying.

25-Nov-25 Canaccord Genuity Buy 400.00 400.00 Reiteration

Hold these shares well up over £3. Even that is still cheap. Huge position here for me, in profit now. Been quite a grind, but reward is inevitable.

🤣 Brilliant Smokey. Yes HOW DARE THEY. (Guess ill be heading over to Mondi to trade it soon)

Barclays raises Spire Healthcare price target to 275 (269) pence - 'overweight' (24/11/25)

Lol the same 3 holders talking to themselves for the last 3 years. Its good, yeah it great, this means business... Dead stock.

Shareholders long term incentive - not crystallising a huge loss 🤣

Short term trading is definitely the strategy. Sold 295, bought back 269. Ex-Dividend next week. Expect it will probably rally again before then.

I dont think we will see the retrace next time if it pops again. Be interesting to see how low shorts want to take it now, I would be surprised if it dropped more, its now on all the moving averages that shorts will be selling down to. Literally free money, love it. Mind you im owed a bit here.

Coronation up to 25.2% they must like the stock.

Totally agree Spawny, I was here at the same time. I probably broke even, having a few different attempts some profitable others not. I sold out at 70 odd p after one of the drill flops. People should study situations like this so that they can learn to avoid them. I cant believe I first met this stock in 2018, that's how long its been. I have never looked back after cutting this, so many opportunities out there. Why anchor yourself to one that keeps slapping you in the face. 30p says the house broker, and that's going to be very generous from the house broker. So many bag holders & the smart money exited since 2020.

How much do you think Paul Baay has earnt since 2018? he must be one of the biggest winners here, possibly North energy and a few big traders back in 2018/19.

The only one that tops this form my experience was Pure Gold another Aim/TSX. And if you think about it, its exactly the same playbook.

I think you are missing the point.

Bytes is now over 40% owned by South African institutions. Coronation fund strategically buying up to 24% is not averaging down behaviour. This week we also saw Camissa join the register with 5%. Not to mention we have other historic SA owners - PIC and Biltron. As the thread title says the SA ownership is no coincidence, especially when you consider Bytes was originally a south African company. Altron Limited (through its subsidiary Allied Electronics Corporation Ltd) spun out Bytes Technology Group in late 2020. If you factor in inflation and dividend returns, these same investors are about to take it back cheaper than it was spun out. Bytes is a cash machine, and these guys will take it back. I expect if they delist it from London and just kept it on the JSE the multiple would rerate for them. Bytes is only priced like trash due to hedge funds - The same hedge funds who have let another large holder accumulate stock at cheap prices.

I added again today at 3.50, and now have a good size here. If I see 3.40p, ill add again. Patient capital waiting for an inevitable big move, most likely a take private. With buy backs and dividends its no problem to wait it out.

Coronation – ~24%

Biltron – ~8%

PIC – ~5%

Camissa – ~5%

The uk wont pay up for bytes, but the south Africans will. Mark my words, this will be gone in next 12 months. I added more today. Bytes is a cash cow, and will attract a higher multiple in SA. Apparently this move has happened several times with other companies, that delisted back to SA. Ill leave you two to worry about growth and Microsoft. I just follow the institutional money flow.