The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
I have been looking at SFE for a over a week now, and while I would be the first to agree that the current trading outlook and FY is going to be difficult, I also think this is great recovery play, and I personally feel that despite the current challenges, the stock is under valued. What I really liked was that 5 individuals have all bought stock. Given how tight the end of year cash was going to be, I felt this mitigated the likelihood of an immediate cash raise (though nothing is certain). Purchases are not overly large, but I do not think that between them, they would not have bought around £75k of stock, if they were going to do a raise at a lower price, which they would also need to participate in.
It is also worth considering that this is quite an illiquid stock, and it may have been difficult to purchase more stock at a reasonable price. I also think it was possible that they had competition from shorts closing, and certainly a few traders who turned up on the drop. This could explain the CFO and CEO buys being on the low side (CFO paid 12p!). It also goes without saying, that SFE have a long road ahead of them, and there will likely be other chances to buy in here.
Recent director buys:
31st July (NED purchases)
Lovell - 190,000 @ 10.8
Goldsmith - 140,000 @ 10.8
Porter - 100,00 @ 10.8
1st Aug
Rob Neil (CEO) - 200,000 @ 11.61
7th Aug
Phil Joiner (CFO) - 117,000 @ 12.88
Current holdings
CEO Rob Neil - 0.57%
CFO Phil Joiner - 0.14%
Yes I will also look at Speedy, but the collapse here seems more interesting. If the dividend was maintained here, at 0.54p then the yield is about 4.5% at 12 pence a share. However, last year they did almost 3p EPS.
Speedy also seems to have issues, with EPS last year of 0.5p. That would put them on a very PE. Which is what this site shows for both. I prefer the PE of 4 for HSS. Looks like Speedy are trying to diversify as well, but only scanned. More home work. Thanks Ragn!
I messed up with DWF. There was a piece in city AM where Jefferis broker was saying they would need a raise, so I sold out at quite a loss, just before the offer. Something wasn't right, in hindsight manipulation to collect shares I think.
Good to be in the sensible club!
Ha ha, just answered on you another thread!
This is poised to break out, I really like this stock from the company, and the chart. (look at weekly chart for a couple of years). Yesterday Keystone law gapped up on open with its results, and plans for a special dividend. I ummed and arred about another law firm, when they were £4.00. £4.70 yesterday.
Hopefully Knights does the same thing, and breaks out of the long term down trend, back up to 2 or 3 pound.
Thankyou Bangrak. Very little action this morning on my L2 screen for HSS. SFE making new lows on £200 prints. Fun and games.
I will take a good look here over the weekend, but what is the angle with the 30% private equity? That could be interesting.
Still here, id say its getting exciting. I missed the IC article, it didn't make it to the paper version.
I think a big factor here will be an outcome over at APH.I think LDG have 21% now of APH. APH is still in the grips of 2 short sellers, GLG and Blackrock.. I expect they are waiting for the announcement regarding the appeal over the court case. The only thing at stake now is whether APH have successfully appealed the 7.1M fine (I think unlikely) and whether Peter Butterfield gets struck off, over the incident. The latter doesn't really matter to me, APH have already restructured management. I think APH will be the jewel in the crown once all this is put to bed. Maybe DBay can find a buyer for it, or reverse this in to it?
LDG is doing as well as many other closed end funds etc. I think its worth holding.
Lastly, several times I have seen those cancelled trades above 14p, something going on?
Hi LV, yes I spotted you here. Regarding that other stock we were in, I do know what I am talking about, though most people there haven't a clue. You could probably make more money here, or on a similar stock than you could over there. These types of businesses are far more predictable. Effectively, the difference between a real business here and a storey stock over there. That ridiculous talk of a 20p dividend over there, they haven't the foggiest. Conversely if you buy and hold something like this you could actually be looking at 20%+ yield in a couple of years. For example many of years Safestyle paid a dividend, the dividend was higher than the price of a single share today. Imagine that, in a two or three years being paid back your entire investment each year. Thats the dream.
Sorry to keep mentioning SFE, I wont again, just very comparable to here and I am less researched here.
Bought a few here, I personally think it is a short culminating, but only my personal feeling.
June trading update was positive, still on track to meet expectations, but quite vague, note they are hoping to meet EBITA expectations, removing the D from their headline figure.
Lombard bought 5% in March, that is a good sign. Was tipped in IC in 2022 (may be a bit out of date now).
Single analyst buy rating, with target NTM 33p, 200% upside.
Last full set of results Dec 2022:
- Net debt10 £41.5m (FY21: £45.4m) reflecting improved profitability and working capital management
- Strong free cash flow generation of £28.4m despite increased capex investment
Ownership looks pretty decent as well:
Exponent Private Equity LLP 33.43 %
Ravensworth (International) Ltd. (Gibraltar) 26.71 %
Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Ltd. 3 5.576 %
Hestia Investments Ltd. 5.532 %
Merchant Capital Manager Ltd. 3.972 %
HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Ltd. 1.601 %
IG Markets Ltd. 0.8837 %
Clareville Capital Partners LLP 0.7092 %
BlueBay Asset Management LLP 0.6161 %
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management Ltd. 0.6026 %
For me, I am happy to be buying building materials and services companies. I plan to hold these as long as necessary. There is a quarterly ZEUS note for this sector, its well worth a read. It has monthly consensus EPS for each company, HSS is showing a decline of 14% for the prior year, but that is a lot better than many others. HSS heat map is one of the better (red) ones. Only a few are green, Epwin is one green which I hold (6% yield on that, just plods on an on).
I have also conducted a fair bit of research regarding Safe style, one of the biggest droppers this year on that list. While Revenue and earnings are down, they are within their covenant, and importantly for me own freehold of factory and head office, worth more than the value on the balance sheet IMO. Big drop there today also, company mcap about £10M now. Huge II ownership, some recent director buys.. Will post over there very soon, was waiting to get entire position, which I have today. Again another 2 or 3 year hold, if not taken out expect 5 bagger from todays 8p.
The building scene seems ok round my way, trades I know are busy.
Brighty,
MTEC's share price was over 40p in February of this year - yes it was, and it should not have been. One of the last Hurrahs of over valued AIM companies being run up by traders. I cant speak for 2 years ago, but it is likely a raise/Dilution has occurred to lower the price that much?
15p a share seriously under values this company based on the numbers announced today. - No it doesn't, the market cap is now £22M for a company that lost £1.5M this year. Ok, it has no debt, and £8M cash, so we are talking about an EV of about £30M for a loss making company, with no financial moat, that mainly relies on people to generate the earnings - once they can get a contract. See very good post by gusrezo.
I have been invested here, I sold at 33p as it was clearly over valued by that point. Bought the dip recently, but fortunately needed funds and sold close to b/e at 17p. I would say this might be worth buying or holding for when the economy picks up, but I think around £20M mcap is about right currently. If you bought it for £20M and liquidated it tomorrow, you would be out of pocket. I also followed TPX impact closely, and Totally health care, both have had similar woes. This sector is an avoid for the time being to savvy investors. As the the CEO purchasing, I have said it before, he is buying back stock for a fraction of what he sold it for when this floated. It obviously is worth more to him than anyone else (as he has control).
I would also keep an eye on the share count of these 'people' business. It has increased by 10% this year. I think these companies have a trick of part paying employees with shares. This keeps wage bill low, increases earnings, impresses the market, but few people realise the effect of the dilution. Great if you can accelerate earnings above the level of dilution. It also suppresses the share price, as stock is constantly being sold. - currently scratching my head about with Begbie Traynors.
For example
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MTEC/ltip-update-and-pdmr-dealing-y3mxqj601lhoiv5.html
Following the waiver and cancellation of the CEO and COO LTIP Awards, and the grant of the above new awards under the LTIP, the Company has options outstanding over 4,688,268 Ordinary Shares, equivalent to 3.14 per cent. of the Company's current issued share capital.
I too would be interested to see how the finances could be modelled, when we have had no explanation for the 2 month delay, and also no info on the flow rate. I also don't use Discord.
Perhaps you mean, its a more general modelling once things have settled down, and they hit the first targeted flow rate etc. This is what PB is likely going to want to get across in the investor meet, though if nothing else material transpires until then, I don't know how credible it will be, or how much people will be prepared to trust him further.
Still out, still dont want in. Sorry if it bothers some that someone uninvested is discussing TXP on the TXP board, but I am genuinely interested in the storey here (having been invested since 2019). I follow many shares, that interest me.
Its an excuse for poor performance, Something deliberately orchestrated previously to buy another year of lifestyle. Im sure they will have another great idea for next year, but they just need a few quid first...
I did make money here, not much from memory, but I was so glad to get out of this. When it spiked up in the spring time. I was one of the first to sell, missing a lot of the spike. I just wanted out. Wasting your time here, more luck on a scratch card.
Just read the CFO RNS, I see he has worked with Baines previously at BBI. Before my time, cant find any charts etc. Does make me wonder under what circumstances he got the job. He already has 85,000 EKF shares, so no need to dish out any Freebies.
They are also 6 months through the FY, since last results (No TU published). So if a ban were implemented, I think SUP would benefit from most of this years revenue from disposables anyway. How quickly could they ban it?
I think they will be able to navigate this easily.