Long term chart15 Sep 2025 18:12
The GBG weekly chart tells a fascinating story, of a stock that went from 20p to Β£9.70 - a rise of 25,943% in the space of 20 years. In fact, it traded around 5p for a few weeks back in 2001. All the money was made in the later decade 2011 to 2021. Any of the AIM funds who accumulated around the 20p mark, are still able to exit today and realise a 600% gain. Though they must (and should) feel like bag holders! I am looking at the weekly chart, as I think it is very interesting currently :
We have a double bottom from Sep 23 to recent Aug 25. It seems on many stocks, Autumn 23 was the low point for many Aim stocks. It would make sense to sell of back to the low point, since the AIM funds need to exit. Looking at the volume, we have the largest volume bar since back near the IPO at 20M last week. This coincided with Citadel Advisors LLC closing a lot of their short and dropping below the reporting threshold. Systematica Investments Limited increased 0.1%, which is taking over a little of the short from Citadel IMO. Hopefully is just a short term trade for a few more points. On this basis, and the Wykoff pattern I have mentioned before, I expect the price to drift back down to near the lows (which should be the last time it does that). This would tie in nicely with GBG being able to publish a date that the move to MM is to occur, hopefully soon, forcing the rest of the funds to sell and the shorts to cover.
If the business is doing remotely 'ok' we should be able to get back to a rerating of around Β£3.70 (Maybe early 2026 ?), which is the consensus from 10 analysts and also would be the top of the range between the double bottom. Although once the dust settles we are going to need a period of consolidation, hopefully this is done in the Β£3's. Last year GBG published a trading update on October 17th - I expect this would be able to lay out a time table for the move, unless it arrives earlier. Ashtead tec has managed to confirm their date for the move is October 6th. Currently shorts are increasing over there, but I think GBG has had a longer sell off, and may have less IHT holders. Hopefully no more shorts arrive.
Its worth considering the long term chart here, to truly understand the ride this stock price has been on, and what other players holding the stock may be thinking. There is certainly scope for downside, from the chart, but hopefully not the fundamentals.