Member Info for Dartron

Must have been a shakeout

03-Sep-25 17:05:51 211.50 350,000 Unknown* 209.00 209.50 740.25k O

03-Sep-25 16:36:22 211.3965 50,000 Buy* 209.00 209.50 105.70k O

03-Sep-25 16:35:06 211.50 243,807 Buy* 209.00 209.50 515.65k UT

I got some for 62.878 today showing as a sell. Interesting discussion about 2 of the properties over on the other board. I did some digging, as was not aware.

Hoddesdon energy does not even have a lease break until 2032, its an energy from waste building. Difficult to ascertain if it is operational. It was closed in 2022 as it wasn't any good, but it may be under new ownership now. Fortunately this is not a very high value building, or high rent. Hopefully they sell this before the lease break.

There was some worry over Meridian Steel Ltd (a little tenuous based on trump tariffs), but from what I can see this is just a warehouse for distribution, close to the M1. Cant see a problem if they had to re let that, tenancy ends in May 2027.

I hope the company come out and do some PR, id be interested to hear them talk.

Barchid, yields are high because few people want them. Its really not as simple as being able to lock in a 5% yield from a bond this article sets out why:

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/benstead-bonds-are-long-gilts-55-no-brainer-ii536265

If anyone is really interested, and has time watch this for a detailed explanation of why traders are selling off bonds and the £

https://youtu.be/zOHBgeBnslU?t=87

Perhaps todays RNS saying that the new shares get admitted tomorrow may mark the end of the short selling of PHP. PHP is now my largest position, im looking for at least 15% capital gain in short order, agree the media narrative is probably a factor in the very short term for traders and shorts, but the broker consensus here is for at least £1.20. I feel its a much safer bet than government bonds, and unless you have studies bonds carefully its not as simple as saying you can lock in a 5% yield risk free. Tell that to the people who bought at 4.5% now nursing a paper loss.

Looks decent, has had a good run previously. Thanks.

I was going to post about erosion of capital on a 30 year bond. I honestly think £1 today will be worth £0.01 in 30 years time. However, you could of coarse get a linker bond, where you would have some benefit from inflation, but the issue there is that it is based on RPI, which is manipulated by governments. I think over 30 years a 5.7% linker-bond would be a fairly poor investment.

As investors we should be aiming for at least 7% or more returns per year. The FTSE is up around 12% YTD. I think that makes the bond look a fairly poor choice. With a REIT, your income is truly inflation backed (as rents are), plus your physical asset will track real inflation (as the £ devalues).

Finally, you would hope that these guys could actively manage this and grow earnings, thus attaining some appreciation on top, which is not possible from a bond. I don't see the attraction personally.

Perhaps there is an argument for bonds outside of tax efficient accounts, but Im not fortunate enough to have that problem.

Coronation up to 21.35 - they have taken just over another 1%, with shorts running at 2.1%

I wonder how this will work out, shorts may feel the price has got ahead of itself, but this is due to the supportive buying. I cant see them being able to crash the price if numbers are not stellar. I had sold a few, as the shorts put me off a bit, but I still hold a decent amount in my pension. I think the signal that Coronation did not want to stop at 20% is very bullish, next stop 25% and short squeeze ?

Hauser bros bought that stock yesterday on the 18th. There seems to have been strong buying today as well. I have not managed to go through the results yet as on holiday, but I did get another clip on Friday for 95p. Could not say no at that price. Will read next week.

Exactly why I won't get involved. Was expecting a drop today.

Please share RoJo, not enough funds discussions on these boards. Away next week, but will reply when I get a chance

Big volume today, hopefully not GLG closing short. If its another fund, then GLG will still have to buy.

Looks like 2 x 1.5M transactions, one at 8am and one at 12 - going from trading view.

FK, here is my LUCE research

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XFooUhzW/

So are shorts still increasing. 2 firms now. It has probably enabled Coronation to buy so easily, but they are going to hit a limit where they cant buy any more.

Interesting.

I am saving some dry powder for results, in case it gets dropped. Seems a decent value stock to hold on to. I am also going to research the history at some point, this stock was 20p in 2012, which is surprising. It has had a very strong rise over that time - 5 bagging in 10 years.

RBC cuts NextEnergy Solar Fund solar fund price target to 85 (90) pence - 'outperform'

Great presentation, and they are doing a great job IMO.

Hi Run, funny bumping in to you on so many great stocks. I think this is a great company, and only today I was looking back at a recent IC mag, where in the Slater growth screen this came out top. But, I sold a few small caps recently including this one, based on Macro calls.

From Google: DF Capital, a prominent player in this field, focuses on sectors like automotive, agricultural, industrial, transport, lodges and holiday homes, motorcycle, motorhomes and caravans, and marine.

I think DFCH serve a large part of what could be described as large discretionary purchases - caravans, holiday lodges, boats..

To be clear DFCH lend to the forecourt vendor, so the vendor can pay the manufacturer. The vendor can only repay the loan once he sells to the customer...

I think the type of people who can afford these large ticket items are already being targeted by Reeves, and will certainly be more targeted by Reeves post budget. Up to now, I think wealthy pensioners have not been affected much by RR, but who else can she tax. The same is going to be true for Farmers - another segment served by DFCH. That just leaves small businesses who might need working capital - say no more!

I can say anecdotally, the holiday park I visited had 10's of empty plots for luxury lodges, and the latest developments they were working on during my holiday 2024, had not moved on at all and were still building sites on holiday 2025. I also recall a comment made by Paul Scott, not necessarily about DFCH, but I think he worked in a similar lending industry or insolvency, he said when they rocked up to do an insolvency, there were usually loans booked against goods that didn't exist. I will caveat that by saying I think DFCH will be very careful lenders (they got their fingers burnt a few years back). But it makes me think that they are exposed to the thin end of the wedge so to speak.

I hope things go well for DFCH, I really like the biz and the team. Im not trying to talk it down, I sold to lock in gains. If it did report soft numbers I will be looking to buy back in, but with one eye on the economy. If Begbies Traynor (BEG) seems a no brainer to be in, then DFCH seems a no brainer to be out of - regretably.

PS, one more thing take a listen to this interview from a US value investor. I really enjoyed this, and also noticed that she said she will not touch lending or geared financial plays (even REITs). Linked to the exact time she says this : https://youtu.be/XD7QuHxO5Ow?t=1168

"Companies which have leverage as their basic business model..."

I also sold PGH, where I made a write up my reasons, but again I had a large gain to preserve. My investing style would not sell here If I was a new investor with no gains to lock in, but I have been here for around 2 years and at PGH. If I get the call wrong, I have only lost more upside, if I get the call right I have not lost any downside. Risk / Reward.

Yes, I went by 24 report, which was the 17 initial purchased, but in April, they purchased another 9.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SUPR/update-on-portfolio-initiatives-i97sua5i9rtnhs0.html

"The Company now has 26 Carrefour stores in France, representing c. 5%[5] of its gross assets"

Back to the 24 report again:

We continue to see interesting opportunities such as

this and if we decide to increase further our exposure to

continental European grocery assets, we will first consult with

shareholders and seek shareholder approval to revise our

Investment Policy accordingly.

Branching further out in to Europe would be a good thing IMO.

Cefncribwr I calculated below that the buy back can last in excess of 200 days. Its essentially 100k per day, from 25M

As part of the Company’s investment strategy to acquire

high-quality, strong trading supermarkets, it is sometimes

necessary to acquire complementary non-grocery units that

are co-located with the store. These units often create

a retail destination helping to drive further footfall into

the supermarket. Non-grocery assets represent 6% of the

Portfolio by value.

Tenant Exposure by rent roll Exposure by Valuation

Tesco ------------------------48% -------------------------48%

Sainsbury’s -----------------27% ------------------------29%

Morrisons --------------------5% --------------------------5%

Waitrose ---------------------4% ---------------------------4%

Carrefour --------------------4% ---------------------------4%

Asda --------------------------2% ---------------------------2%

Aldi ----------------------------1% --------------------------1%

M&S ---------------------------1% --------------------------1%

Non-food --------------------8% ---------------------------6%

Total -----------------------100% ------------------------100%

{Glad to Morrisons is a low number !!}

At Tesco, Chineham, McDonald’s has commenced fit out

works of a unit with a new 25-year lease. In addition to this,

Pets Corner is upsizing into a new unit. At Tesco, Bradley

Stoke, works are currently being undertaken to amalgamate

two units, one of which was vacant at acquisition and the

other let on a concessionary basis, with B&M committing to

a new 10-year lease, rendering the site 100% let.

Other developments are being considered at Sainsbury’s,

Newcastle, Morrisons, Workington and Tesco, Bradley

Stoke and various negotiations are ongoing with potential

tenants for those sites.

Look at my face, is it bothered though?

There is probably an opportunity to make some money here..

SUPR derives 75% of its rent from Tesco and Sainsburys (page 1 of the report)

https://supermarketincomereit.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/SUPR-FY24-Annual-Report-and-Accounts.pdf

This article says that

"Sainsbury’s and Tesco are expected to better weather the cost increases after the two grocery giants reported net profits of £420mn and £1.2bn respectively last year."

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2025/08/supermarkets-at-risk/

- and it is not behind a paywall. (I use this publication quite a bit, its a good trade journal)

Then we have the fact that SUPR leases supermarkets in France to carrefour. They have 17 of these.

Now we are starting to feel less hysterical, lets look at the detail, the top tax is on the very large supermarkets with a rateable value of 500,000. The retail gazette says that "It is understood that the business rates rise do not largely impact Aldi and Lidl, which typically trade from smaller stores."

SUPR has around 8 Waitrose (usually smaller stores) and 2 Aldi's.

There may be a few in the portfolio affected, but I do not think it is going to be a big number. Morrisons are already struggling, and closing some properties, however the other retailers may see this as an opportunity. I can tell you anecdotally, I have seen a few new Supermarkets pop up this year - (admittedly smaller stores). Maybe that becomes the new format. I was aware of the story, but I think its scaremongering more than anything else. Sure some stores may be unviable, but how many are going to be in SUPR's portfolio. When you invest in a REIT, you are paying for the expertise from the management, I doubt they are just finding out about this via the Sun & FT article.