Member Info for Dartron

24-Sep-25 12:16:07 230.00 12,938,141 Sell* 230.50 231.50 30m O

Wow, better out than in.

LOL

JSE - final reduction sale is now over. Back to more realistic prices in due course. A good update on the 30th has the potential to rerate this significantly.

Anyone buying around 18p, has a huge advantage - they in under the price of Tyrus, so R/R really skewed highly to the upside.

I bought more yesterday. I'm backing my thesis that uncle Ken will look after me.

I should clarify, the expectation is that this could take months to play out any way.

I dont think it effects Spire, if anything if the pound weakens, it makes it more juicy for the overseas interest that we have had in the past.

Private equity loves this — it’s basically “built-in FX leverage.”

The current earnout liability related to Mach49 in Next 15’s accounts for the year ended 31 January 2025 is $91.2m. The earn out relates up the end of December 2024, so ceasing operations does not affect any future earnout. However, referring Mach49 to the legal authorities and ceasing operations does provide a strong case for a legal dispute. Also, it is highly likely that there was some kind of misconduct, due to the severity of the reaction by NFG. They will have been under contract for these earn outs, and if a pending legal dispute were to proceed, then the misconduct would need to be material - I'm trying to say I think we are past the stage where they could be bluffing.

So $91M liability disputed. Potential to claw back some of the original $107 payment. The $91M is looking at nearly a quarter of NFG’s market cap in potential liability swing right there. 🔥

Thinking about the legal proceeding, both parties have down side. NFG has legal costs and may still lose, Linda Yates and the other Mach49 sellers aren’t negotiating from a position of “we’re owed $91m, pay up.” They’re negotiating from:

✅ Already banked $127m (so even if they walk away now, they’re still rich — life-changing money).

⚠️ Future $91m is disputed — NFG is alleging “serious misconduct.” If a court/arbitrator agrees, it’s not just about losing the $91m, there’s a slim but scary tail-risk of clawbacks. 🔥 Litigation risk — even if they think they’d win in arbitration, it could take years.

Therefore, my thesis here is that NFG will settle this with a much lower earn out payment. Plucking something out of the air, $15M would be a win for both sides. Saves NFG time, litigation costs, and they can show the market that they have saved a huge chunk of liability. Mach49 vendors, who come across a little 'grifter like' in my mind, get even more money for doing nothing (or potentially defrauding NFG).

This is a special sit now, with 1/4mcap in cash up for grabs. Add in the recent court approved equity reduction freeing up £192M, and Richard Griffiths on the register, short interest from Saba capital - exactly my kind of rumble. I think if the update on the 30th is even just 'ok', id like to think we will crack £3. It could of coarse go a lot higher. Some down side, but R/R seems skewed to the upside.

Ripper find Skid.

Andrew Ripper reiterated his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 440p

JPMorgan cuts YouGov price target to 385 (400) pence - 'neutral'

JP are joint brokers here, so their view should the most positive, yet they are neutral. That is with access to management etc etc.

The AIM only, IHT funds need to be out before the move to MM. We dont know if there are any forced sellers left, but I am betting on there being some. I have a large holding here anyway, so I can trade some of my holding.

If you say so. I have said before, I am far more focussed on free cash flow, rather than growth. I am also holding Bytes, and TBH, I dont care if it grows or not. Bytes is holding 10% of its mcap as cash, they have 90M cash. Back to GBG, looking at the buy back, they bought 475k shares last week, which was £1M worth - in a week!. With a high short interest, and obvious reasons for that (moving to MM) I am less focussed on the growth outlook here. I would expect to be in profit, way before I have to make judgments about GBG growth. Hopefully with a little more analyst coverage and details from the next set of results, I can make a judgement as to what I want to do long term. If it keeps up the FCF, then I will likely hold.

I sold my lowest purchase into strength, it would make sense for this to retrace, based on forced AIM sellers over the next 6 weeks.

avocet, look at ticker WHI, for some classic Laura.

I didnt get my fill at 221, was going to drop it to 218 today.

Move to main market 30th October

Trading in line with expectations

GBG confirms that trading in the year-to-date has been in line with the Board's expectations. Taken together with the current sales pipeline for the remainder of the year, the Board is confident that GBG will deliver on its full year revenue outlook, which is consistent with current market expectations.

GBG expects to publish a pre-close trading update with respect to the half-year ending 30 September 2025 on Thursday, 16 October and intends to report its first half results on Tuesday, 25 November.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GBG/proposed-move-to-the-main-market-trading-update-uz2dgk6nqsc0bcf.html

Yeah, I just read that on ADV FN. Thing is, that is what is happening. Jobs are being saved, offices remain open, investors will get a better service. In a way money is being put in to the company, it is just that shareholders are not going to benefit, because this is structured like a take over but looks more like a merger. If WHI had not run out of money, they may have had some more options, but I don't see any other alternatives - clearly just throwing in money isn't going to help, they need some kind of change. Perhaps the 'Telegram' poster has over looked all of the staff wages that are still going to be paid, and the offices which will remain open. Perhaps, there isn't a better/higher offer under those circumstances. Besides, if one really feels that this is a steal, surely the sensible move would be to invest in Oberon. As a trader / investor that seems the logical way to play this. They are worth a look, as they just raised £1.5M working capital. The acquisition is being funded by a separate CLN. The last set of results to March '25 said Revenue increased over 40% to £9.36m (FY24: £6.6m). With the WHI AUM as well, that could double. (FY25 - rev on fee earning AUM increased through organic growth and new teams by £234m)

What we dont want here Laura, is another Argentex. I recall how bullish you were on 'another party stepping in' blah blah, but what happened in the end? Big fat zero as it went in to administration. Im sure you got your stock sold though. ;)

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/oberon-investments_oberon-wealthmanagement-acquisition-activity-7375909331147366400-JM8d

Their perspective on the take over:

· The APA provides for the parties to enter into a Transitional Services Agreement to facilitate continuity of services and support a smooth transition for WH Ireland's clients and employees during the integration period

· Offices in Manchester and Poole to be added to Oberon's existing London HQ and back office in Basildon, broadening regional presence and client access

· WH Ireland's experienced investment managers, advisers, and operational teams will join Oberon, providing clients with seamless continuity and the reassurance of trusted relationships

· WH Ireland's clients will benefit from the broader resources and expertise of Oberon's growing full-service boutique platform, while continuing to work with their existing advisers

Ah, just saw your reply. We are probably very different investors, but I found your reply very interesting. Sounds like you are more focussed on growth than I am. I am closer to the value end, however I have a few blue sky ideas like this one, since I can understand the business, and it seems decent to me.

A quick thought on the IDM's, The USA isnt going to use parts from China, The companies I reference make a lot of things, but are exposed to growth themes like energy storage, electric motors etc due to the chip sets that they make. If the S&P had a correction I would happily buy up Texas and AD, probably Intel. Your right about Nvidea, but its just too stretched for me to be the last guy to buy - I would probably play those in technology trusts, but again id want a pull back first. I think we have to accept volatility in this day and age as a major part of the investment journey - as the price on this stock has demonstrated.

They have set out 2 choices

1) vote for AUM sale and delisting

2) continue (therefore incurring losses)

There is no choice to lose the AUM and stay listed (yet)

If cancellation is rejected, they will go bust.

The Group continues to be loss-making on an underlying basis, Net cash at year-end for FY2025 (March) was £3.5m. They wouldn't be doing this if they had another choice, as Laura pointed out, its an eye watering loss for share holders.

Following Completion, the Cancellation and the successful winddown of the Group, the Directors expect that any distributable reserves remaining in the Group will be returned to shareholders after settlement of all outstanding liabilities... the Board currently anticipates that this will be approximately 0.5p per Ordinary Share and distributed within twelve months of Completion.

Its that or lose the lot.

The Group continues to be loss-making on an underlying basis, with the Directors current expectations being for a further fall in annualised revenue to circa £8m* for the 12 months ended 31 March 2026, in part due to its inability to grow revenue by attracting new teams and clients and retain its existing major revenue generating staff. In addition, whilst some cost cutting exercises have been implemented during the year, as a regulated and listed entity the Group's ability to cut costs any further is limited.

Yet for Oberon, they acquire "Approximately £850m of client Assets under Administration are expected to transfer over on completion of the acquisition. According to WHI, the AUM was generating" "during FY2025, the Wealth Management business was impacted by market declines and the resignation of key financial planners from the Group's Henley office all of which resulted in total assets under management falling to £1.0bn* at the FY2025 year-end (31 March 2024 ("FY2024"): £1.2bn). Group revenue for FY2025 fell to c.£13.2m*"

So scaling it back a bit as AUM decreased by 15%, Oberon should be looking at circa 10M revs, for this 1m acquisition. WHI have lost their star guys, meanwhile Oberon have built quite a list. Seems like an excellent opportunity for Oberon.

Will the large share holders vote for it? well its 0.5p per share, or risk losing everything as WHI only other choice is reverse take over, but currently loss making. Bearing in mind there was and is no liquidity to exit the WHI shares seem a little pricey still.

Steeltrader, please share more thoughts about recruitment in general. I am looking at the whole sector, as its crazy cheap.

From my perspective (someone who would take contracts from a S3 company) I do not see how AI can replace these guys, if anything I think AI is going to be quite troublesome for recruitment. It is going to require a human to talk to a potential candidate, who could have used AI to embellish a CV, or begin learning a subject to appear knowledgeable. The trend for internal recruitment is more down to cost saving, reflecting the current macro. I think once things pick up, companies will go back to being busy with what they should be doing. The better recruiters will be working in commission based roles, and internal recruitment will struggle. The next bull cycle in recruitment is going to be focussed on finding STEM candidates, we just need it to begin. The main issue I see in the short term is the economy. At least S3 is geared to multiple economies, and has plenty of net cash.

Perhaps one slight snag, is that so many people seem to leave S3 and start up on their own, in general at the lower end there are few barriers to entry in the business, but at scale there are only a few players really.

Https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.html?shareprice=OBE.PL&share=Oberon-Investments-Group-Plc

I think Oberon will make a good go of this, what they need is AUM. They have a few star managers - Richard Penny (Crux), Peter Martin (Odey)

They have struck the deal on a CLN, but prior to this had recently raised cash 1,5M. Oberon mcap 31M