Member Info for Dartron

Price dropped about 4p today... so people were holding for a 2p dividend, to then sell at a 4p loss to yesterday?

I have bought a few more today - @ 255p

I think the short thesis would be that Yougov have no room for failure, in terms of earnings or profit. They have competition from other businesses and companies are also tightening the purse strings. They HAVE to deliver on the targets that they have set, ideally beat them.

It does seem a crowded trade for shorts though, so I am wondering if a few will exit. It is hard to see much downside at all; and certainly not in the next 3 months. Carrying shorts incurs a cost for borrowing, and the dividend will also cost them, however if there are no other significant buyers they could just here and slowly accumulate the stock they have sold at higher prices. They may even know there are large sellers.

It seems to make a great trading stock, with so many shorts. If there is any sort of rise, it is almost guaranteed to get sold back down. I got rid of 1 lot for 270 this week, and got 2x back at 263. I would guess it will be range bound for a bit now. I don't think we expect an update from company any time soon.

Its priced for no growth now, and I honestly think Shakespeare the founder will conduct a sale and it will leave the market. But no time soon, as its too hard to value without a track record of debt coming down and earnings stabilising. Worth a hold in an average account, worth trading from 255 to 275.

Adding, that all the options to prior CEO's were also 1p options, so this is nothing new. My point which I didnt make! is that the options 'cost' is lower now, due to CEO's leaving. I also do not begrudge Richard Last having options as he has bought, and as I previously said, I think he is the guy who is going to help get shareholders some value, by virtue of being placed by Gresham.

Options are good and bad. From a quick dig I can tell you that:

originally Reece Donovan had 677,329 (0.61%) - they never got exercised.

Lucy Dimes had 1,051,705 (0.94%) - they never got exercised

Scott Cunningham, has consistently built up options from 2023. I cannot find any RNS for exercise of options since this date. Don't think he has bought shares either. The options would be part of his remuneration, so he has effectively lost money, as the share price has crashed from £1 to 20p.

Richard Last has at least bought 50,000 shares at 77p, (£38,637.20).

At least these guys are now incentivised until October 2028. (could also be manoeuvring for a buy out, usually this is a step along the way).

Look at it another way, if the company was in dire trouble, they wouldn't have done this...

Regarding the share price, I cannot understand why anyone would be selling at this price. I am adding slowly.

1 week to go before main market. Various holdings RNS of funds increasing... shorts might still need to close (different from disclosure / may already have bought stock). Looking good, I am still targeting £3. I'm not selling a bean from my trading position until I see at least £2.75. (long term hold in pension).

Trading view is showing the volume today at 28M shares - the highest volume by far this stock has ever seen. I can see 5M printed after market, but assume TV has found some other prints somewhere. Its around 4.8% of the float, so possible some one has taken 3% etc as a position. Might hot up here with corporate. action.

You are right. 8th October was the date the story broke on BBC news, so selling is understandable. In these situations, you have to acknowledge there is a family that is far worse off than any investor today. Im sitting tight, not adding until HSE is concluded and known.

Here it is

20 September 2024

Franchise Brands plc

Director/PDMR shareholding & holding of significant shareholder

Franchise Brands plc, an international multi-brand franchise business, announces that Euroblue Investments Limited, a company wholly owned by Non-Executive Director

.

*** Nigel Wray, yesterday sold 7,000,000 ordinary shares of 0.5 pence each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares"), at a price of 160 pence per share. ****

Dont panic if it comes back and fills the gap - down to about 670.

Trading view is showing the volume from yesterday as 30M ~6% of company. Probably a fund taking a position.

Big day..

21-Oct-25 13:40:24 237.50 3,040,979 Unknown* 238.00 238.50 7m O

21-Oct-25 13:40:23 237.50 3,040,979 Unknown* 238.00 238.50 7m O

21-Oct-25 16:36:03 238.50 200,000 Buy* 238.00 238.50 477.00k O

21-Oct-25 16:35:13 238.50 465,718 Buy* 238.00 238.50 1m UT

£47200, not too shabby.

Where is Avocet? Probably been reassigned and reprogrammed to mining bit coin?

I was saying before this is a Macro short. Its a short based on global economic slowdown via oil prices. I will buy some AT, at some point, but im hoping it breaks £3 first to get a real bargain.

From my research, it sounds like this will 'delist' from being an investment trust, but remain listed as a 'Green energy company'. It sounds like the large shareholders would likely support the move. Most likely the NAV will get reset to a lower level (via dilution or more realistic valuations), if the dividend was reduced to 5% and was then sustainable with income for growth, no reason why this cannot then rerate closer to the 'new' NAV. Same as NESF, damage already done. Pretty much only upside now, though if like me you bought over £1. it could be a few years to get back toward that. These alts, have turned out to be a bad investment, and are probably shaping up to become a good investment once the deal is done. You could hope for an alternative offer, but as they said they have already had someone walk away after DD. Expect the other alts to follow.

Nothing concrete on any sales either, buy back allows shorts plenty of time to exit.

Might be worth doing a bit more research which geographies they operate in..

Go back far enough and you see him dumping stock at a higher price. Not a good look.

You are the one making a big deal about the decline here, I have only invested this year, so only made money. So my experience is not the one you talk of. Though looking back, it was clearly over valued. When posters go on about things that happened 5 years ago on a stock, I feel they are usually sour losers.

My favourite joke is - There is none so bearish than a sold out bull.

I think peel are independent (and not the most outlandish, I respect their views):

GB Group's corporate brokers are Barclays Bank plc and, in a joint capacity with the nominated advisor role, Deutsche Numis (formerly Numis Securities).

Interesting that market screener is showing consensus as:

Average target price 1.755GBP

Spread / Average Target +41.53%

High Price Target 2.100GBP

Spread / Highest target +69.35%

Low Price Target 1.500GBP

Spread / Lowest Target +20.97%

Though the PE is still very expensive - 32. But IBSK normally trades around 16 times, and in FY26, it is currently 15, FY27 11.

I think DenFos might be thinking longer term than next few months Gingy.

I would buy a few more every now and again, I think long term it will have its day.

Also, could see turbulence trading opportunity from budget, with so many shorts. Iv seen it before on other stocks last time, when IHT was only halved, I made a good trade on a heavy short AIM stock.

Thanks Zebbo, credit to you for getting the call in the first place. They are obviously going to talk a good talk, but I have said all along, I see only upside from a 60p base.