RE: Shorts24 Apr 2026 12:31
Yes it is more likely to move 20% than 100%. I think there will be a trading update next week. We might see a buying opportunity sub £1.
However, id question whether there is enough stock to sell it down to 80p. Already 14% has been sold short to take the price to £1.
Is much more borrow realistically possible?, or financially worth while? (Stock must be expensive to borrow now).
Who is left to sell? Cobass asset management have absorbed a lot of the shorted stock, going from 3% to 10% in the last 9 months. I dont see them as seller, or other value investors like Perpetual. That is the trouble with such a crowded trade on the short side - seller exhaustion, and pesky value investors who start to get excited. Investors like Richard Penny describing buying Breedon as a 'generational opportunity'. I would be a buyer of any of those large operators currently, with a 5 year outlook.
Ibstock currently around 7.7x Ev/Ebitda, at 80p its around 6.6x. Would only take one whiff of a cement sack being ripped open, when building starts (and it has to start) to rerate to what? 10x, 12x even 14x? As I said, the key thing is the balance sheet, not the earnings so much. It still sounds like Ibstock have land they can sell, and less large adjustments for the current year. Energy is 80% hedged going forward. Even if earnings sag a bit more, the multiple is staying around the same due to short selling, but the upside on a recovery is then growing. If things do get in a pickle, I think the government may have to consider some tax breaks on Energy for companies required for national infrastructure, but we are a long way from that.
Ibstock is very much the Iran of the Ftse250. Just needs to survive to win.