Afentra Plc. Share Price (AET)

Have put in for a chunk....will probably be scaled back massively...

Cavendish Company Comment

04/06/2026

Successful equity raise:

"Afentra has announced that it has successfully raised US$40m of new equity. The new stock was priced at 67p/share representing a 5.2% discount to the closing price on 2 June of 70.7p. The raise follows the recent conclusion of the strategic review, which considered the best course of action for the next stages of company growth. With no shortage of organic opportunities within the portfolio, it looks as though the company has taken the opportunity to add to its coffers and accelerate the growth plan, which sees production double to around 13kbopd (net) by 2028. 44 million new shares have been issued as part of the placing, equivalent to 19.6% dilution. A retail WRAP offer has been launched to raise up to a further £2m at the same price. Factoring in the dilutive impact of the raise, our Core NAV dips 3% to 110p, with Total NAV now at 205p. We trim our target price slightly to 110p, which offers over 55% upside.

— Our view: We believe the raise is opportunistic, but on the whole positive. The company has no shortage of growth opportunities within the portfolio, particularly with supportive oil prices. Accordingly, with strong demand for the stock, a US$40m raise, equivalent to c19% dilution, provides firepower, giving flexibility and the ability to accelerate growth opportunities. This is particularly important given the strongly contangoed oil price forward curve (i.e. near-term oil prices are considerably higher than longer term prices). We do not have visibility on the book; however, the raise will also have been an opportunity to introduce new blue-chip institutions onto the register. Having not raised material amounts of equity in the past (the company was founded via an RTO of an existing cash shell), some may have taken this opportunity to establish a position without having to buy through the market. While marginally dilutive, we believe today’s raise is incrementally positive. "

I think i had seen that they were always aiming to get to 20k boepd a day by 2030 but the roadmap is 12k a day by 2028 and then the extra 8k a day in 2029/2030 to get to target

Most definitely NOT a keep the lights on raise - oversubscribed and at small discount given size (it's only dilutive if it doesn't add material value, and let's be fair, that's simply never been the case here). Together with the recent refinancing facility, anticipated cash-flow from near-term liftings and exploration upside from Pacassa SW, this is a clear signal to the market to anticipate further explosive growth.

Pre-strategic review:

"Given the significant potential within the Afentra portfolio and the position and reputation that Afentra has established in Angola, positioning the Company for further inorganic growth in the country, the Board has taken the decision to initiate a wider review of the Company's strategic options. In this context, the Board has appointed Jefferies to engage a small number of financial and strategic investors to explore how they could assist the Company with its future capital needs and ensure the most efficient delivery of the significant growth potential of the Afentra portfolio and leverage the Company's strong position in the broader Angolan market, which could include a sale of the Company to one of these parties."

Post-strategic review:

"The Board has determined that given today's announcement of a successful re-financing at a reduced cost of capital, the significant change in the macro environment and the early start to infill drilling focussed on delivering material production and reserves growth, where the company's costs will be carried, Afentra is well placed to pursue the next phase of growth as an independent E&P company, ensuring that the value of Afentra's significant potential will be to the benefit of the Company's shareholders."

"The proposed equity raise allows Afentra to further accelerate our growth strategy as we enter into the next phase of value creation, deepening our investor share register, and further strengthening our balance sheet. Over the past five years, and without recourse to our shareholders, we have built a robust platform designed to leverage the significant scale of our asset portfolio, both offshore and onshore Angola. Our stated strategy remains on track to more than double our current production by 2028, as well as sustainably increase our reserves and resources through high-impact drilling. We are delighted by the strong support we have received from existing and new investors for the Placing and look forward to working with all of our stakeholders in delivering on our next phase of value creation."

I think one things for sure, this placing isn't going to be out of desperation.

My take is that the new institutional investor is being invited onboard before the results of Pacassa SW drilling are announced, opportunity for a quick short term uplift.