Supreme Plc Share Price (SUP)

The company has said that they expect minimal disruption from the tax in terms of sales. This is based on tax being introduced in Germany and other European markets where overall the effect has been marginal.

If anything supreme is in a much better position to weather any short term downturn in sales than pure vape only companies as it has it's other divisions to fall back on.

They've also said that there will likely be consolidation and/or companies being removed from the market as it's expensive to be set up to comply with the tax requirements and to cope with any potential working capital issues.

I think there might be some short term gain as consumers stock up before the tax is implemented then some short term pain once it kicks in. I expect/hope this is baked into the shareprice

Thanks for your reply, I wasn't thinking of it pushing users to higher value brands, more like users switching to the blackmarket and avoiding tax, similar to what we saw with tobacco

Good luck with your investments

Re guidance: Yes — based on broker forecasts,

The P/E is around 7, so it’s definitely not priced for growth as it stands.

As for the idea that higher prices will push users towards premium brands, it’s an interesting theory, but I don’t really see it in this category. In alcohol, there has been a shift towards “drink less, but better quality” as taxes have risen. I’m not convinced that translates to vape liquids, especially at the budget end of the market.

If anything, it’s more likely to work the other way — users currently paying £4 for 10ml who see that rise to £7 are more likely to trade down or look for cheaper alternatives, rather than those currently paying £1.20 who see their product move to £4 look to pay even more.

Will this impact the vape market? Without a doubt. I’d expect a reduction in 10ml volumes, some shift towards illegal or non-compliant substitutes, and potentially a move into pods, where the tax increase feels less visible when you’re buying 2ml at a time.

The share price is very likely in for a bumpy ride, but it’s not as though the current valuation is ignoring the tax risk — that’s already reflected to a good extent.

If you’re comfortable with the volatility, it could be one to strap in for. If, however, the idea of the share moving ±30% off the back of a single trading update in the near term doesn’t sit well, then this probably isn’t the stock for you.

A big part of the business is the manufacture and supply of vaping products, the government is introducing the Vaping Products Duty tax in Oct, I can see this having a major impact of sales going forward

Have we had any guidance off the company about how this new tax will impact sales and profitability

The upcoming UK Vaping Products Duty (VPD), taking effect on 1 October 2026, will disproportionately impact discount brands by erasing their primary competitive advantage: ultra-low pricing. Because the tax is applied as a flat rate based on liquid volume rather than a percentage of the retail price, cheaper products face a massive, regressive price hike.The policy framework, outlined by HM Revenue & Customs, will shape the value sector in several distinct ways:

1. Disproportionate Retail Price HikesThe new duty adds a flat £2.20 per 10ml of e-liquid. When the standard 20% VAT is applied to the duty, the total price increase passed to consumers is £2.64 per 10ml.For premium brands, this is a noticeable jump. For discount brands like 88Vape, it completely changes the product's economic profile:Current Discount Price: ~£1.00 for a 10ml bottle.Post-Tax Price: ~£3.64 for a 10ml bottle (a 264% price increase).Current Premium Price: ~£3.99 for a 10ml bottle.Post-Tax Price: ~£6.63 for a 10ml bottle (a 66% price increase).The financial gap between choosing a budget liquid and a premium liquid will shrink significantly in percentage terms, which may tempt users to trade up to premium alternatives.

It's not really new news as was first mentioned around a year ago and has been available to buy for a while now on the supreme website, but I guess this is the official launch.

I have high hopes for it especially in certain international markets like the middle east and China. If they can find the right partners.

I also think their trade brochure is really good and highlights the differences between this and other brands.

Page here https://www.supreme.co.uk/brands/tonino-lamborghini-energy-drink/. But brochure not showing on my mobile only on desktop.