Supreme Plc Share Price (SUP)

Equity Developments forecasts on the vaping ban make no sense to me, see here for context: https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=SUP&share=Supreme-Plc&thread=2CBBB81E-50F6-4EFE-821D-F4CA4E5516DC

I don't see how 2025 won't result in a massive drop in vaping revenue.

Disposable vapes have much less usage per vape which means higher revenues as consumers have to go back much more frequently to buy the disposable vape compared to a refillable. A tiny % drop just doesn't make sense to me.

Supreme PLC (AIM: SUP), a heavyweight in the fast-moving consumer goods arena, has triumphantly announced a stellar trading update for the fiscal year ending 31 March 2024. This sets the stage for a highly anticipated audited financial results reveal scheduled for 2 July 2024.

Supreme has reported an eye-popping performance for FY24, doubling its Adjusted EBITDA to a minimum of £38 million from the previous year’s £19.4 million and propelling revenues from £155.6 million in FY23 to around £225 million. This notable ascent in profitability is complemented by Supreme’s ability to conclude the fiscal year debt-free while generating unprecedented cash levels.

https://smallcompanychampion.substack.com/p/surpeme-plc-fb3

Yep - It’s bigger now on every front than when the SP was 240p a couple of years back. The 220p rating makes complete sense. What doesn’t make sense is how the SP can below 200p

In a Trading Update for the twelve months to 31 March 2024 Supreme expects to report revenue of c.£225m, and (adj.) EBITDA of at least £38.0m, in line with market expectations, which had been revised upwards during the course of the year and represents almost double the FY23 level. The Group closed the year debt free.

Our outlook highlights the extent to which Supreme has expanded, through both acquisition and organic growth during the period. From 2020 to 2024E the Group will have grown sales by 144%; Vaping +3.9x and all other Business Categories outside Vaping (Batteries, Lighting, Sports Nutrition & Wellness and Branded Distribution) +31%. Notwithstanding the impressive growth track record to date, the Group remains committed to complementary acquisition opportunities.

On the same basis, FY20-FY24E revenue will have grown at a 25% CAGR (FY20-FY25E, 20% CAGR) and (adj.) EBITDA at a 24% CAGR (FY20-FY25E, 15.1% CAGR).

The update shows the scale of Supreme’s growth in recent years with FY24 backed by organic revenue and profit growth across all divisions. Comparison of our FY25E outlook with a group of (18) companies representative of each of Supreme’s core Business Categories highlights the Group’s relative discount on a FY25E EV/(adj.) EBITDA 4.2x multiple compared to an overall average of 11.0x. Our Fair Value remains 225p/share, indicative of 7.5x FY25 EV/EBITDA.

Link to report: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/trading-update-highlights-scale-of-growth

U can fit a bus through that spread.