Member Info for boonboon

The company has said that they expect minimal disruption from the tax in terms of sales. This is based on tax being introduced in Germany and other European markets where overall the effect has been marginal.

If anything supreme is in a much better position to weather any short term downturn in sales than pure vape only companies as it has it's other divisions to fall back on.

They've also said that there will likely be consolidation and/or companies being removed from the market as it's expensive to be set up to comply with the tax requirements and to cope with any potential working capital issues.

I think there might be some short term gain as consumers stock up before the tax is implemented then some short term pain once it kicks in. I expect/hope this is baked into the shareprice

It's not really new news as was first mentioned around a year ago and has been available to buy for a while now on the supreme website, but I guess this is the official launch.

I have high hopes for it especially in certain international markets like the middle east and China. If they can find the right partners.

I also think their trade brochure is really good and highlights the differences between this and other brands.

Page here https://www.supreme.co.uk/brands/tonino-lamborghini-energy-drink/. But brochure not showing on my mobile only on desktop.

Https://www.foodanddrinktechnology.com/news/40758/clearly-drinks-reports-revenue-and-gross-margin-growth/

Based on company filings, Carabao Group's sales in the United Kingdom for the 2024 fiscal period were approximately 193 million THB, which converts to roughly £4.2 million to £4.5 million based on 2024 exchange rates.

I agree that Sandy can come across as over optimistic sometimes, but I don't really have a lot to fault.

With regards to the decline in expected earnings from the Slimfast acquisition to the half year results from the drinks and wellness division I believe a good chunk of that has been due to Clearly drinks losing some larger contract manufacturing business, which was relatively low margin so if they can add some more higher margin own brands even though the revenue might be less profitability might not be impacted.

The fact that there has been no change in expectations between the half year results and the trading update/Carabao license is because the broker wants to see the final results before making any changes to forecasts as it's probably difficult to do just off the back of a trading update.

With regards to the Slimfast acquisition in the recent trading update they said this 'The Group's Drinks & Wellness category also performed strongly, boosted by an excellent contribution from SlimFast, which was acquired during the Period.'

Also slimfast has seen steady sales over the last few years so I don't expect a sign decline. In fact I hope to see some growth.

However the rational for the slimfast acquisition wasn't just the brand it was the ability for it to increase the output from their new powders facility from around 20% utilisation to between 60 and 70% this means higher productivity and margins across the board.

With regards to Carabao I believe that their annual UK sales have historically been between £4 and £5milllion and clearly drinks was already the manufacturer so additional annual revenues to Supreme will be lower than that if nothing changes (however margins should improve).

Now if Supreme can utilise their existing distribution and product development to put carabao in more stores or more products per store then it could grow nicely. Off course there's also the potential opportunity to sell more of Supremes existing brands into Carabao accounts.

With regards to 1001 I think this was an opportunistic but, at very little risk. I think Supreme wanted to enter the cleaning products market and instead of creating a brand from scratch they've bought a brand, which wasn't core to the wd40 business model at an attractive price. They're already starting to launch some more general cleaning products aimed at professionals. Remember they've got a core customer base that buys P&G cleaning products from them. If they can convert some of these to 1001 instead I expect it would increase their margins significantly, especially if they move to their own manufacturing in the future.

All in all I believe Supreme offers good growth prospects going forward and I expect the company and brokers are being cautious. Maybe because of the global economic uncertainty, but I'd be surprised if the wellness and drinks category expectations aren't raised a

I spotted this about Germany https://www.tobaccojournal.com/news/cigarette-sales-up-slightly-e-liquids-surge/

Also read that 40% of sales in Germany are grey or black market, which I expect is a lot harder to crack down on with open borders and no tax in neigb countries. The Netherlands for example import way more liquids from China than their own domestic use. No need for tax stickers and I expect a lot of it is ending up in Germany and other EU countries.

I'm also pretty sure I saw somewhere that we're looking at also offering 5ml of liquid so that will presumably reduce the cost pressure to consumers somewhat. So it might be something like £2.50 for 5ml or £4 for 10ml.

We're still likely to be the lowest cost offering on the market and I'm not sure vaping numbers will decrease dramatically.

I'd also be interested to find out at the results how the vaping business is going in Spain and other international markets.

Tesco and sainsburys both selling liquids at £4 per 10mg. Asda at £2.75 and morrisons 88vape at £1.30 so not sure if there's been another 10p increase.

You also need to consider that 10ml liquids that other brands are currently selling at £4 will double to £8 so those people currently happy to pay that amount might “downgrade“ to 88vape and pay roughly the same as they previously have.

Will be interesting to see if retailers keep premium brands or order more low cost brands.

Overall a good write up.

However the 3rd tranche of $20 million which was due around 31st of August hasn't arrived yet, which worries me.

The pfs which was substantially delayed because they wanted to buy 2nd hand equipment, isn't compliant because they presumably haven't been able to buy this equipment yet, but are assuming they will in the pfs. So what are the changes if they don't get 2nd hand equipment? Both in costs and timeframes.

Speaking of timeframes we are still waiting for the permit application and the latest insinuation is that it will be in by December. However phoenix are known for missing timelines time after time.

The copper price used in the pfs is on the high side. Yes we all expect the long term copper price to be higher, but there could be any number of catalysts that, temporarily, means the price is below the pfs price when we enter production. What will that do to the profitability?

With regards to all the other projects (and there are more than you've mentioned there I believe , they've only provided a recent update on Navarre creek which was imo not amazing. They haven't given any plans for after the Empire open pit. What do they want to do with the cashflow? Personally I'd like to see us getting red star in production as there was initially meant to be a race between red star and empire as to which would go into production first. 2 revenue streams would provide substantial cashflow to do further exploration of Navarre creek, the sulphides and other prospects. However we don't know what their plans are. Communication has all but dried up. Paul, who has been promoted to head of investor relations was previously advocating the investor mee platform, but it seems the directors don't respect investors enough to communicate in a way that questions can be publically asked to them.

Instead we're meant to be getting some new investor hub, which surprise, surprise is also delayed. Priority is also given to those who give them details of their broker account details which I for one am reluctant to share as it is sensitive data and I don't necessarily trust how secure that data would be.

So yes whilst finally getting the pfs is promising there are still a lot of questions and concerns that I hope will be answered soon.

After years cheerleading for the board and having full trust in them, you now admit being disappointed in them.

I hope you feel sorry for all the investors who didn't sell due to your over optimistic posts.

Yes it's everyone's individual responsibility, but it doesn't help when people like you, who claim to be an insider, are overly positive with no valid reason.

Brilliant? They had to flog cheap shares at 11.5p to get the funds. Hardly great business as we were told the bond money would be available to buy equipment as soon as Ryan needed it.

I'll believe it when I see it. It's not like the company have got a history of giving completely inaccurate timeframes.

If we don't get the extension rns tomorrow we will have to assume it's failed and Riverfort then have the right to convert.

The shareprice should be above 11p by then, if not all of us longtermers have made a very bad mistake.

Maybe it's their trade?

Rats leaving a sinking ship.

If the Riverfort is sorted I think the price will stabilise/go up slightly. It depends on the amount and length of the extension.

If we get the bonds then the price should be well above 50p imo. (unless We have further dilution before then).

Anything about the fact Riverfort can convert in 9 days?

I don't know. I can assume based on the facts presented.

They have been in negotiations for at least a month. If we are as friendly with the lender as the board says we are then you would expect negotiations to be fairly straight forward.

If they were straight forward they could have completed the extension before the fundraise, which I believe would have increased the shareprice and any placing could have been done at a higher level.

The board also has a history of continually missing target dates on multiple issues. So you can understand my skepticism that the Riverfort loan will get extending before they reach the conversion timeframe.

I'm not sure Riverfort will convert, however the nearer it comes to the 25th of February without a new agreement the higher the likelihood they will imo.

It's all very well the board saying they've got a great relationship and they won't convert. If they've got such a great relationship why the delay in negotiating a new facility?

I'd be very concerned if we get to the 25th of February without a new deal or other financing secured.

If your conviction is what the board and other associates are saying just remember how many times they've been wrong in the last few years.