Molten Ventures Share Price (GROW)

Markets like stability and Labour is now the party of economic stability. 1/100 chance of the Tories making it back.

All signs point to a pretty exciting 3 years for our SP. Maybe a quick recovery from the oversold position we have now and towards something more sensible -even if not optimistic.

When GROW went public in 2016 and then joined the FTSE what should have happened in theory was that retail investors and funds who do not invest directly in unlisted tech would pay above the last round prices and the SP would trade at a consistent premium to NAV/share as the rate of growth (20% or so) would be unavailable elsewhere.

What we got was the above premium half the time and a continued dependency on the same type of funds that can and do invest directly in many of the unlisted assets GROW owns. Those funds will never pay much of a premium to NAV/share as they can buy the underlying assets directly -although they would need to wait for the next funding round to do so and don’t tend to buy into the seed funds GROW use for round A info.

I suspect once we recover the market will accept that the discount to NAV we had was overdone and will not repeat the discount at that level next crisis. A dip in NAV/share from circa 940 to circa 660 was plenty enough for a fast growing portfolio with few if any actual bankruptcies to average in. There was no need at any point for a discount above 30% for our SP.

From here I think we have a lot of hidden value that will drive very fast NAV/share growth over the next 3 years. I don’t see any problems reaching and exceeding our previous high of September 2021. We avoided frothy valuations on the whole an have been growing the portfolio organically ever since September 2021.

Good luck all

Well, well, well, we have an election ahead of us. This is simply observation that new governments are not voted in but unpopular governments are voted out. Markets hate uncertainty. Rachel Reeves has been on a 2 year mission to charm the City and has their confidence. Recent speeches and Labour Policy have been well received but what will this mean for GROW (or for that matter other shares in a portfolio)?

A step back and a read of her recent speech back in Feb this year gives a few clues. Changes will not happen immediately, they never do, but all businesses can have some confidence that the Labour Party with Reeves as Chancellor is likely to benefit the economy even though interest rates might not fall until August.

The mood of the UK, seems rather fed up with this administration, where, since 2019 there have been 4 Prime Ministers and no election.

https://labour.org.uk/updates/press-releases/rachel-reeves-speech-at-labours-business-conference/

Anyway, my reading of the entrails suggest a decisive win for Labour, that stock markets will rise in the run up to election as poll numbers are released (through certainty) and a rising tide lifts all vessels.

This is likely to be my final post to this board. I tend to take the keenest interest when worried on the future prospects OR if there are one or more bullying contributors. Opinions are like n!pples - some are pointed, others rounded. I'd like to pay particular thanks to steph whose determined optimism, depth and breadth of knowledge has been extremely useful. I have been averaging up in recent weeks and continue so to do in small chunks putting surplus dividends to work.

With interest rate cuts to follow, I hope. I recall reading somewhere in the last couple of years that 3% - 4% base rate was the sweet spot for Banks, Governments and businesses.

There is an interesting article published by KPMG, which although does not mention GROW is giving an upbeat future for Private Equity investment that has been in the doldrums. The contention seems that activity will begin to rise as dry powder accumulated over the last couple of years will be put to work.

https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2024/03/uk-economic-outlook-2024.pdf

And again. Not a reliable partner. Just wanted to find a way to get out of Forward