I worry about grow being taken private. they have been private before and if being retail does not help fundraising whats the point?
are we all investing at the cusp of ww3?
i worry the wars could spiral out of control. netanyahu has a vested interest in dragging us all in to their mess and biden in particular just a mug or puppet in the process. if bidens red lines came with real consequences we would not be where we ate but talk is cheap.
Https://files.pitchbook.com/website/files/pdf/Q1_2024_European_Venture_Report.pdf
Https://techcrunch.com/2024/04/16/apple-lawsuit-behind-it-chip-startup-rivos-plots-its-next-moves/
Though competitive sector but money can be raised as lot’s of potential as well.
Which portfolio companies are struggling? Even graphcore will probably hold it’s value for us.
SO why the 2/3rds discount to NAV/share? For my money an anomaly that will correct itself in due course. Markets can be irrational for limited periods of time -especially for specific shares such as ours with subjective hidden valuations to worry punters.
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-says-a-wall-street-revival-is-finally-here-080059304.html
Oakblokes research suggests"For example GROW values its 0.35% holding in Revolut at £54.5m. This means Revolut is worth £15.4bn ($19.5bn)."So whilst the Schroders valuation uplifts is not as meaningful as where they were valuing, it looks like a 30% uplift on where Molten currently hold..which would be positive.
All the portfolio shares we know something about have held their value or increased it since September 2023. Even Graphcore , the most vulnerable of the lot, will credibly be valued at least what we have it on the books for due to negotiations on a sale.
The 55m cash injection in second half at about 1/3rd nav means we need over 35m net uplift in NAV to break even against half yearly results. If we are to achieve a slight increase in NAV/share over the year we will need net nav increases of over 100m as we had a 72m loss in first half.
I’ve given up on guessing valuations. They seem so subjective and only really accurate in the long run when late rounds and IPO’s review true values with real money.
I do think GROW have been conservative on valuations and they are more or less what we would get if the portfolio was liquidated in current market conditions in an orderly (not a fire sale so at least 12 months to wind down positions) sale. NO justification for extreme discount we have now unless further NAV/share losses iin the books and I don’t think so.
I’ll confidently predict no new losses (taking into account the dilution) and some NAV/share increase (taking into account dilution). How much of a net increase is uncertain. Could be circa 100m using credible comparables and our organic sales growth within portfolio helping reduce multiples of sales needed for current valuations.
Seed funds we own have held values nicely. We were even able to cash out a bit of seed so those valuations real money.
Thannks
Revolut was on our books for 95m year end 2022 and by 2023 results and half yearly results 2024 down to 55m. Even at 55m big success story as we only put in 7m at seed stage.
Note 28 of annual rerpot 2022 say there was a weighted average of 25% discount to last rounds and I imagine the 5m REvolut was on our books for was discounted around that. The range was 15% to 89% so no last round was used too calculate our fair value.
SO any valuation of Revolut near 33bn means we are back to closer to 95m rather than 55m. As yo usay room for NAV/share contribution to growth.
Now after this shooting gallery between Iran and Israel we can add WW3 to the ever lengthening list of black swans that could induce the whole market to dive. I’m grateful to the Iranians to not retaliate like for like after the Israeli bombing of their embassy in Damascus. That would have opened up the gates to hell.
What they did was a well signaled “attack” with high expectations of them being shot down before any real damage was done -due to the advanced notice. It was a clever show of force without much in the way of loss of life or damages. So most nations urging Israel to “take the win” and not escalate further. Who knows what crazy Netanyahu will do but for now deescalating. Some real lunatics in his cabinet urging all out war with Iran. They should be in jail and not in cabinet of a nation with nuclear weapons making these type of decisions of war an peace. Way of the world I suppose.
Still so fragile and so easy for a miscalculation to occur. UK was involved in the shooting display, the biggest since the Falklands war for us.
I expect we might go up this week on a relief rally that all out war was avoided -at least for now.
Can we at least beat a global market index? Any mushroom can just grow that way.
For me over the last 8 years the answer is no but I lie in hope of a quick fix via a bounce back of GROW to previous high and beyond within 3 years. With my mushroom strategy luck.
Great i love contrarian postings.
you never know but i think we are on the cusp of a sustainably SP recovery not a new record breaking 8 year low. ive laid put my rational in many postings. good luck all. if you ate more that 50% confident of a new dip why not short snd make money off that?
Https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/softbank-considers-investment-or-partnership-with-openai-ft-1.1972354
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/07/pensions-giant-create-uk-superfund-boost-jeremy-hunt/
Medium term we are in good shape. GROW as a well diversified trust in unlisted growth companies in the tech sector by geography, sector and pipeline position is in pole position to benefit. Certainly a good choice for 1/3rd of my ISA and very likely to significantly outperform the market over the next 20 years.
Short term who knows. I think we already have plenty of evidence we should be at at an SP of 2/3rds NAV/share not 1/3rd with great prospects to go up sharply from 2/3rds as a base. However that evidence has been there for a year so maybe massive underpricing can last a year longer?? We shall see.
Https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/weekend-analysis-private-equity-fundraising-funds-return
No evidence at all of a declining market so our organic sales growth within our portfolio companies should result in NAV/share upgrades. I hope enough to overwhelm the mild 2’nd half dilution and first half losses.
Wish we had a firm announced sale of graphcore to boost nav/share.
wide range of possible results from modest additional nav/share decreases to modest nav/share increases in spite of modest dilution. at least a 150m nav range of possibility on valuation of whole portfolio -a range that undermines market confidence to be sure.
just need to be patient. at an ago i once asked the q why not more share specific information and reply was that core holdings prohibit it, result is worst of all worlds where in a tight market worst assumed without any of us having the information needed to decisively counter invest. all a big of a stumble in the dark
Fir me the low do has 4 main explanations:
1) we were well overpriced between launch in 2016 and 2022 and are correcting. nav in 20016 to 2020 was overstated.
2) all the exits (nearly half a billion) in 2021 2022 have been wasted when reinvested with little retained value plus test of portfolio doing poorly.
3) we have serious trouble in a majority of the core portfolio and the seed funds, trouble not yet talked about in public realm.
or 5
4) temporary irrational anxiety that will pass