Member Info for steph

OIl at 70 should be good for us as it lowers interest rate expectations. Interest rate expectations seems to be the largest driver of our SP beyond company specific results.

Yet since the oil price has started dropping our SP has been going down. I think short term effects of some fund taking profit and nothing fundamental. We will drift back up quickly.

I’ve long suspected that when a big buyer sees light volume they might sell a few or just sit back and let the price drop so they get a cheaper average buy in price over the medium term. I kind of feel this unexpected drop from 6.45 to 560 is because of that and no fundamentals.

I know we just got 2.1bn valuation for a company that has not flown one successful launch yet but within 12 months there is a real possibility of another funding round at a higher valuation.

ISAR is innovative in it is the only rocket gloablly using carbon fibre as the main structural component. Yes I know you are thinking of the titanic fibre capsule collapse but no risk no reward. Carbon fibre gives better economics due to weigh to commercial load ratio. Also a much more automated fabrication than aluminum panels with less skilled labour per rocket.

The key is the production innovations mean ISAR is very scalable once it gets going and the market it can scale into is expanding fast and traditional providers can only increase capacity slowly due to production technique and the skilled labor needed. YOu can add money to ISAR and then get more production and thus more launches within 24 months.

Mulling a new secondary within a month that wojdl take valuation up to 115 bn usd.

I think we have it on our books for 55bn usd so that would be a doubling of our 175m holding. The NAv/share uplift would be over 100pts on top of about 27 m uplift we already have in the bank from ISAR. SO NAv/share around 10 quid in half year update even if the unlikely scenario that rest of portfolio a wash. As before we may take some cash out during a secondary which really helps whenever SP is below NAV/share.

Thank you ben. now restart grow purchases 5.75 silly price

Yes the asset class of having illiquid high tec assets (all not yet profitable and with burn rates and runway lengths to worry about) covered by a retail wrapper was initially successful in the March 2017 to September 2021 when a premium to NAV/share was assumed (expect for the covid dip March 2020). Value and accessibility to smaller investors was added buy not having a closed ended fund.

However the asset class misfunctioned between March 2021 and today with erratic discounts to NAV often 2/3rds discounts. Even in this last 2 year period where NAV/share has been rising from a low of 646 we have had large discounts.

Discounts when NAV/share is declining (as it did between March 2021 and September 2024 makes sense but the size was an overreaction.

The discount March 2025 of an SP 61% below a now rising NAV/share was plane silly and an indicator the GROW model of retail wrapper was misfiring.

Hopefully we will get back to a rational relationship to NAV/share shortly.

Tech

I read at some point real the percentage of real retail investors is tiny -under 3%. So as we moved from AIM to FTSE we gained institutional investors who just plugged us into automated trading systems and we now bounce around like cork on the ocean. What we have not done is have all our institutional investors hold as if we were private and illiquid in the same way they once did.

There is a good case to go private again I’m afraid. Listing on US market might help. We have hot growing companies at a discount which is a destruction of value. We should in theory trade at some sort of premium to NAV/share reflecting the roughly 6 month lag in NAV upgrades and the difficulty for anybody, institutions included, to invest in the same assets.

I suspect the lag in NAV/share upgrades is in some way even more extreme as NAV tends to be last fundraise with minimal adjustment upwards over time. In our new normal when value discovering fundraising is infrequent we are at comparable multiples to averages -which can massively under value a hand picked fast growth portfolio.

A 75 point dip on no new bad news at all either at company level or world.

We need a director buy or 2 and an announcement of resumption of share buy backs for a specific date, earlier the better.

I miss being in AIM. We had less volitility.

Thanks Reap good charts

i track nav too in relation to sp to understand when we get a premium or discount and by how much.

this dip in the last few days from 645 to 585 does not map trends

I agree there are many geopolitical risks about. Just threat level went down a bit recently. Gulf blockage was a big threat to global prices and thus interest rates.

Hit from loss of Russian oil and gas now priced in.

Lebanon and Gaza have no global economic leverage unless Iran links Gulf peace to those conflicts. A risk but at the end of the day nations act in their own self interest and Iran may be satisfied with influencing the eventual pull out of Israeli troops from Lebanon rather than being able to dictate when. Gaza which is the even greater humanitarian crisis seems unlinked from this deal. So Iran being practical. Trump erratic but that has been priced in for a while.

Another drop on what should be a good day. I suppose just profit taking while strategic buyers are biding their time to ride the dip and pick up cheaper.

Our NAV/share is now 8.77 and rising fast -at lest 20%pa. The portfolio covers some hot stocks at a large discount unobtainable by direct investment in the secondaries funding rounds that are happening.

Can’t see a floor to a new trading range below 6.50. Maybe just a pause along the way to a new trading range between 6.5 and 7.5.

Https://simplywall.st/community/narratives/gb/diversified-financials/lse-grow/molten-ventures-shares/0r9x4zoh-european-sovereignty-and-late-stage-secondaries-will-transform-this-venture-platform?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mobile

We already have a NAV/share above 8.77 when the 27m guaranteed uplift in ISAR is added. Assuming a modest uplift in rest of portfolio will will be pushing a NAV/share of 10 quid by year end 2027. More if we get an upside surprise on Revolut or even ISAR again. Ledger seems to be a slower growing NAV but very solid. The rest of our AI application and cloud stuff should be booming and getting at least 20% NAV upgrades yearly.

With that any major discount to NAV/share should melt away. SO conservative 10 quid with upside potential as we move to a modest premium again to NAV/share. Anyhow that is the thinking that keeps me on a large hold. Geopolitical risks coming down helps as well.

Probably a good time to top up. DOn’t understand why they have not announced some more company purchase. 6 quid is well below NAV/share and there is no justification for a large discount anymore. NAv/share solid and growing fast.

There is a reason why the expression “it’s not rocket science” exists.

Hopefully ISAR will get past this. Space 1 has 3 fails, Gilmore SPace blew up, Blue Origin exploded. Private companies do seem to have a learning curve.

OUr SP was badly affected by Putiin’s botched invasion of Ukraine thorough the mechanism of higher energy prices and thus higher interest rates.

OUr SP has been affected by Trump’s illy bombing of Iran. Through the same mechanism of higher energy and chemical prices and thus higher interest rates.

Our SP has been affected by Trumps stupid international policies that hurt trade and business confidence in general.

However in the case of ISAR and especially ICEYE more recently those idiots are actually helping our SP through the mechanism of a rush to sovereign satellite capacity due to USA erratic behaviour and Russian invasion . POland who have contracted ICEYE for a sovereign satellite system doe snot wan tto relay on the yanks or even the French. PLus ICEYE can see through cloud cover so has a new military useful technology. That is worth 10b on it’s own if ICEYE can monetize that ability. Militaries spend 10bn on a few now nearly useless planes and many times that on nearly useless ships.

No way without the military implications would ICEYE get a 10bn valuation on 100m profit. Same investors and same market conditions will persist and we may get further ICEYE fundraises at ever increasing silly valuations. As will will likely exit a bit each time bring them on.

ICEYE is now the largest company in our portfolio and by some margin. Nearly twice the size of Revolut. It is around 1/5th of the total so we do need to sell down every time we get the chance. .

I’m quite comfortable with the ISAR 2.1bn valuation an dI think we will get year upgrades on that.

Must agree with Sang that ICEYE valuation looks frothy but it is not our valuation but a market price. We even too k money out. It is making profit (100m) but the valuation is 100x. So a P/E ratio of 100/1. It will take 2 or 3 years of fast growth to grow into a 10bn valuation. It does plan to double satilites in only 2 years so a P/E of 50 and in 2028 and maybe margins will go up as demand hot due to military procurement. Anyhow a space X multiple so if you like space ex you may like ICEYE as a holding Below an analysis of why ICEYE so high.

“ Why is ICEYE valued so much higher than its peers?Startups like Isar, Capella, and Planet Labs are valued on multipliers of future potential, whereas ICEYE is being valued as an established defense prime infrastructure asset. Investors like General Atlantic and TCV are willing to pay a premium because ICEYE offers immediate "sovereign security" tech that governments are rushing to buy. This transition from an experimental startup to a core national defense utility is what unlocked its 2026 decacorn status.”

I’m bullish on ISAR even though we just got a NAV upgrade form 1bn to 2.1bn.

It has no revenue but that is misleading. It has pre sold launches well into 2028 so hidden sales. 60% of launches will now be military adn they will pay a premium for an EU provider -especially Germany. Canada will soon be announcing military launches through ISAR as Canada will be a launch and production hub. Call it our Trump bonus.

Even at only 40 launches per year at 15m per launch that wil be revenue of 600m. Apply any reasonable multiple for a fast growing sector backed by strong military and commercial forward sales and ISAR will have a fast increasing sp as soon as it starts commercial launches shortly. ISAR is as big percentage of our portfolio so large additions to our NAV/share quite credible. Sales about 2 years in advance of assembly is a low risk business model. ISAR is a more efficient builder that competitors and uses more 3 d printing so flexible and scalable.

We will likely have a NAV/share of around 9.50 September 30 2026. That is the 8.77 announced due to ICEYE plus the additional 28m not announced but realized from ISAR plus modest uplift form the rest of the portfolio. I’’d say more upside than downside probability on that forecast.

That will be a full recover plus a bit of NAV/share from our March 31 2022 peak of 9.33. By March 31 2027 we should be nicely beyond.

What that means for SP is unknown.. Our SP was on average about 30% above NAV/share in the March 31 2027 to September 31 2021 period. This included a sharp but short COVID dip March 31 2020. OUr SP from March 31 2022 to March 31 2026 period has in all halfs been at a discount to NAV/share averaging 43%.

The discount makes sense if the market expects the NAV/share to be dropping as it did for 2.5 years between SEPTEMBER 2022 and March 2025 9when it started to modestly go up again.

The discount today makes little sense. NAV/share is rising and reasonably fast There are possibilities of a much faster rise and low odds of new drops.

In the March 31 2017 to September 30 2021 period IPOs were regular and running at well above our book values. So investor were anticipating boht fast grwoth and hidden value that was only really confirmed on IPO (or a late funding round). Also IPOs gave better multiples of sales than funding rounds which had more limited retail involvement.

That whole ecosystem is about to change in our favour. We are a strange share to value when plugged into traditional comparables. Our Peg ratio is terrible but not really relevant. Our real value is our NAV/share. SO long as NAV/share is growing at a rate above the market we should trade at a premium to the market P/E. OUr P/E is currently quite low compared to the market so lots of repricing upwards can happen in the next 3 years i addition to our published NAV/share increases. Quite credible to have a SP of 20 plus in 3 years with the NAV/share growth we just got. That implies a NAV/share of circa 15 to 20 in 3 years and with that steady growth a premium to NAV/share to make it 20 plus SP.

I’m pretty sure the post result ISAR fund raising not only spent 22m but the 40m that our old ISAR holding was on our books for was at the most s 1bn valuaiton and it is now a 2.1bn valuaiton so over 84m or a 44m uplift on ISAR alone.

So NAV/share already in the bank for half yearly results is 8.77 +27 or 9.04. This is only a base. All the rest of the portfolio is growing. I’d say at least 50/nav share. I expect buybacks on the Revolut sale to kick in. They mentioned up to 90% of NAV/share as buyback territory and they regard 8.77 so we should see an announcement soon. That will add a few pence to NAV/share as well. Revolut can surprise on the upside with an new secondary at a higher NAV. ISAR just attracting interest and a new funding round in the next 12 months very possible. They need the money to grow as fast as the market and each new round raises the NAV. ICEYE and Satellite VU are in teh right place and the right time and will also find it easy to get new funding rounds if they want at higher valuations. In some weird way the companies that have a burn rate and thus need fundraising but are in a hot sector with a good business plane will get faster NAV upgrades for us then the 7 which are profitable and don’t need fundraising. Revolut using secondaries is an exception. Maybe others wil use secondaries more and we can book uplifts that have already occurred but we can’t book using comparables only.

After 4.5 years without an SP rise and flat NAV/share I think we ahve a lot of hidden value in companies who have not fundraised for a long time and have outgrown the previous valuation but are on market comparable that is too conservative. There is no way ISAR would be 2.1bn using marekt comparables. They got that due to gong to the market. Ditto for Revolut. It’s valuation is because of the secondaries not market comparables.

As soon as ISAR has revenue and not just reservations I think the NAV will go up quite a bit. 3.5x earnings will seem too low for the sector and for the long term EU military interest.