Sp recovery14 May 2025 06:21
Well maybe just maybe this is the start of a sustainable recovery to a more logical point on a price curve starting at our own IPO in 2016. We are a bigger more valuable company per share than we were at IPO but sadly the same SP. For our first years SP was consistently above NAV/share due to realizations (when they happened) outperforming book value by 2 or 3 x. So hope of underpriced assets priced in.
In the last 3 years SP has underperformed book valued by 1/2 or 1/3rd due to fears that realizations when they come will be at less than book value. No trust in book value being accurate and about to legitimately increase. However realizations are coming in at book or above but not 2 to 3 x book. So confusion still.
Whole IPO strategy in 2016 seems to have been strategically undermined by the tiny “general public” percentage of shares at only 2.4% 23 april. This total of small fry (such as ourselves) is dwarfed by the %percentage Black rock has shed in the last month dropping from 12.9% to 9.5%.
So our SP in the short or medium term is determined by a single large institutional investor playing the market. This adds to volatility and a difficulty in prediction of SP movements based on company or sector news alone. Need to get into the head of Black rock which is impossible. Might just be sector algorithms that are not even aware of GROW specific news such as director buys, share buybacks, sales growth, runway lengths, broker guidance, etc.
Long run value will determine SP. It the portfolio is accurately priced and sales growing at a quick pace our NAV/share will rise and our SP will jump. Just can not predict when.
I feel a fair value of SP has been suppressed for over a year and our time has likely come. We shall see. I predict we will be back at 12 per share in 3 years if not sooner. I am hoping for under 2.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
