Member Info for steph

Hate this volatility. We did not have it when on AIM. Harms my perception that GROW is a repository of long term stored value I can draw down when I need cash. Have to treat it as a volatile growth stock and thus a smaller percentage of my portfolio. Still think we are about to rocket back to 11.82 in the next 2 years or so but it will be up and down along the way.

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-23/revolut-to-spend-13-billion-on-its-push-for-100-million-users

Good analysis in Economist on private sector market overview.

As a asset class globally private equity is 85% of the value of global businesses. Listed companies only 15%. So long run makes sense for funds to have a mechanism to hold unlisted companies.

Trouble is the big funds that do private equity have not been able to cash out and recycle due to high interest rates spoiling the market since 2022. That makes them cautious to invest dry power even when they have it until the fog clears.

within private equity most are profitable smaller firms often family run. The minority we have (unprofitable private sector tech stock) is a special category.

Trouble is the general sour mood for private tech is especially pressing on private tech with burn rates and thus runway lengths to worry about. So we are very dependent on the mood.

As our portfolio matures and is either bought out B to B or IPO’d the real value will be demonstrated and our valuations vindicated and most likely exceeded. Maybe better mood will allow a snap back sooner.

Revolut’s ipo spread jumped

Better than Revolut who’s senior staff are selling. I don’t think we have had any director sales for at least 2 years.

A spread bet on unlisted stock we hold an interesting way to test actual market perception of real value. Also a way to invest in the underlying asset -or conversely short it.

Monzo IPO (not ours) and Revolut IPO bets only ones I see. Be nice to have a whole suite of spread bets on eventual IPO price on our core portfolio. I suspect that would help our SP by showing real time market perceptions.

Revolut with revenue up again is a star. I hope we book the full 75bn valuation end of half year coming up. That will give us a 100m boost to GROW earnings.

Interesting new spread bet on revoluts ipo price.

good to see it above 100bn

Even though Revolut’s recent share sale puts them at a $75 billion valuation, some spread bets are indeed suggesting that the IPO could end up around $104 billion. So there’s definitely some market anticipation that their public listing might debut even higher.

Not surprised GRWO sold 15% of Revolut holding at 45bn usd valuation. Cash is king when we are this far below our NAV/share. Can just use money to buy back our own shares and make a return.

What valuation will be used on Revolut for our NAV calcs is unknown. Can use 45bn usd, 75bn usd or a blend. I suspect they they have done in the past it will be a blend.

Any share sale at 45bn valuation will confuse adopting 75bn achieved through secondary in motion.

not helpful to our results coming up slthough mv may well sell a few just for the easy cash

Moving into defence. Lucrative.

https://sifted.eu/articles/iceye-the-finnish-startup-at-the-heart-of-modern-warfare

Apparently was oversubscribed but I can’t find out by how much. HInt was substantial oversubscription so still lots of demand at 75bn usd valuation.

IN spite of massive P/E ratio seems credible Revolut might IPO at 150bn next year. Needs US bank license, unrestricted UK license and sustainable growth projected of 70% to do so.

Such an outcome or anything close to it would transform GROW”s SP. ON it’s own it would jump us into a 10 quid trading range. More if some other holdings raise NAV as well however modestly.

Sang

yes. Awful volatility. Reduces value of GROW as a reserve of equity once can draw down at any time.

Looking forward to half yearly results late October.

Sain you have jinxed the SP today.

My best explanation of these odd SP movements is they are driven by algorithms used by one or more funds tied to the rest of the market and are not specific to any GROW specific news.

When we were AIM SP daily moments closely aligned with news good or bad. Not any more.

Jim

It is an employee only share sale so we are stuck with Revolut until IPO (or an unlikely late round funding).

Being stuck not so bad though as IPO likely will be well above a 75bn usd valuation. Unfortunately not until next year and even then no rush as company making profit so no need to IPO for cash reasons. They can choose their timing and may wait for a lower interest rate environment. .

I’m a bit surprised we only went up 4% on Revolut news. Maybe well trailed but still.

105m in potential profit to be booked in the first half is substantial. Pretty much guarantees we will finally have a healthy lift in NAV/share -the first since March 31 2022 some 3.5 years ago. We probably need to get back to a NAV/share of 937 we had march 2022 to break 10 quid in SP. market will be cautious this time round and we will not trade for a while at a large premium to NAV/share as we did in the initial years.

Multiples of sales and valuations of unpriced unlisted tech are stable. This should allow our sales growth of this part of the portfolio to finally result in some nav uplift. No stressed companies in our core. All seem to be holding or increasing the nave we have them on the books for. Exits at our nave or higher.

.

Great this happened before September the 30th so can be include in half year results.

Assuming the beancounters do not discount the new valuation a bit it will be a 103m uplift in profit for the half. Enough on it’s own to lift NAV/share from 674 to 729. That should help close our discount.

Https://techfundingnews.com/revolut-2-billion-raise-75-billion-valuation/

If this gets confirmed by 30th of September we are in for a big lift. Revolut is on our books at a 45bn usd valuation If it lifts to 75bn usd. We are in for a lift from 33.5bn pounds to 55.5bn pounds. As GROW has revolut on it’s nav currently at 157m that could increase to 260m pounds. That 103 m uplift on a total equity of 1235m pounds would on it’s own lift NAV/share by 8.3% from 674 to 729.

Revolut reportedly in a June fundraise for 2bn that would give it ia 75bn valuation (up from 45). That if confirmed enough to satisfy GROW nav calculations would have a dramatic impact on NAV/share upgrades for half year ending September 2025.

Https://www.economist.com/business/2025/08/28/the-market-for-startup-shares-is-getting-even-weirder?utm_campaign=shared_article