Member Info for steph

I’ve bought a few more GROW. Tomorrow should be a better day.

Trump and Netanyahu certainly raining on our parade.

We had some strong buying pressure just a week ago with similar bad war news. I think those buyers (or buyer) still there but just picking the right moment. No point buying in any given day if the stock will dip more a bit on war jitters.

Lot of money about to pivot into same portfolio of EU/UK high tech, space and applied AI. Our valuations looking decidedly conservative right now and about to jump up over the next 2 years. A pure AI play not cheap anymore but the secondary beneficiaries (small agile business that have found a niche) is what we have. Those can be underpriced.

Low volume maybe indicates drift rather than a real change of range downwards.

So frustrating. And with results coming out Tuesday which should be good news. We were looking quite stable in a range between 5.8 and 6.0.

Nothing new Internationally or at company level. Volumes on this 10% dip quite low. On the run up to 6.00 volumes were high.

Possibly the space X float is so big it might be draining international VC capital pool temporarily and that will flow back when it is oversubscribed. S

Hate the volatility. We had more day to day stability when in AIM. Not much gained by getting into FTSE 250. Same basic VC corporate ownership but more volatility at the margins.

I suppose a big seller is sitting at 600.00 and that has to clear before we break through. No sellers anymore much below that so we keep knocking on that ceiling. Relatively high volume so far today.

I’m expecting on final audited results June 9th we will get a hard shove up well beyond 6.00. Good news coming on several fronts. Even Trump and war can’t entirely rain on our parade. We will get broker upgrades on NAV/share. We will get some more share buyback on Revolut secondary sale.

Markets just don’t seem to believe Trump anymore on Iran. A dovish statement like today used to move oil price 10 pounds down. Not anymore.

Thanks

Hopefully this will help the beancounters accept a higher value for Revolut shares on it’s books than the discounted NAv it has.

Also this means more share buybacks when the cash actually comes in.

Well we finally got back to 6 quid. We were 6 quid last May 2022 -4 long years ago.

I do think our portfolio is larger and more valuable than it was May 2022. That is a lot of time for organic growth (sales growth 40% to 70% annually) of the portfolio. Few have gone under and some added. Fully 7 of core portfolio are profitable which is quite new for us. Normally runway lengths the big anxiety. SO value accumulations just no easy IPO exits to demonstrate our valuations have been modest as they demonstrably were 2016 to 2020 -with a SP over NAV/share to show for it.

I just think we marked so many illiquid assets to market that we have a large revaluation potential as soon as the doom and gloom lifts. Portfolio has grown several times sales to valuation since before the covid surge (which we never really priced into NAV/share anyway except for cash exits.

I follow the IG spead bet on the Revolt IPO price. Been very steady at over 2x what we have Revolt on the books for. Currently 124bn. Just so much underreported NAV to reveal itself by secondarys, IPO's and revaluation of growing seed funds .

Https://mailchi.mp/molten/portfolio-review-april-2026-rns

Holding 550 with oil at 110 with our high sensitivity and inverse correlation with US interest rates just shows how much upside there is once this war tension abates. Without Trump and Hegseth we would be 650 today and about to rise from there fast. I’m very long on GROW so I’m betting the farm on Trump’s sanity. Maybe not such a great bet but we shall see.

Deutsche bank raised 12 month target to 760, exactly NAV/share now.

Timid I think as NAV/share will be substantially up in 12 months time so still predicting SP will trade at a substantial discount to NAV/share. I think by then general market conditions will be much improved and the discount on it’s way out. We traded for years at a substantial premium to NAV/share due to a perception of hidden value.

We just need some middle east stability for an SP rise to a 15% or so discount to the new NAV/share of 760 and rising.

Stability could just mean an agreement to reopen the strait of Hormuz and leaving all the other issues for protracted negotiations. That modest outcome seems within reach although risks of escalation remain.

We remain very sensitive to oil price (unlike US tech stock) as inflation increases interest rate expectations and that has a big impact on our SP. So we need oil at 90 and declining to go up.

Surprise to get the year end update on a Monday. I though it was a Tuesday or Thursday thing each year.

Solid as expected but not spectacular. Much value left in the bank. I'm sure they have a valuation of circa bn 55 on Revolut even though they could book 75bn credibly. Erring on the side of conservative on valuations as always. Some day we will get an SP that reflects that caution rather than sector non liquid fund concerns.

NAV/share up to 760. 13% up on the year. Respectable but not the 15% to 20% we need for SP to significantly exceed NAV/share again.

Interestingly they talk of tailwinds rather than headwinds as they have been doing for several years.

IG spread bet has Revolut IPO now at 124bn reflecting increasingly positive news. Stupid we have it on our books for an assumed valuation of just usd,. 75 bn now quite a solid Revolut valuation based on quite large volume of oversubscribed secondary sales and is a lagging indicator.

I appreciate Revolut has a valuation around that of Barclays and Deutshe Bank there is a new business model in banking that legacy banks have been slow to move into. visa and master card are moving in but have not exploited their potentially dominant position as credit card profit was easy money.

Of course fin tech interconnectivity between banking functions across jurisdictions favours global scale and the market leaders. Of course one big data breach could set back fintech banks while legacy banks with actual paper back up might survive better an attack. For now though revolut is about to seriously take on the USA market where Stripe is top dog.

Gb utterly failed to break into global market for chips and IT (AIM a rare exception) but we are a lead center for financial innovation and have been for 200 years. We also are overweight on digital creative industry but that industry has many contributors and no big player. If we are to have a global giant to equal the valuations of the “magnificent 7” it will probably be in fin tech. We have the skills here in the UK and london region to support that. We do need integration with Chinese fintech to be globally dominant in the sector and I hope politics does not get in the way of that.

I’m holding a leveraged position in spite of war risk to inflation -and through that transmission to interest rates for which our SP is very inversely sensitive.

Trump stupid but he does look constantly at the stock market and oil price which creates a feedback loop for moderation. I give it a 20% chance Trump will do something stupid that sets off a new round of fighting and a new increase in oil price to well beyond 100. 40% chance of something that looks like a resolution (and an oil price droop to 75 or below.) and a 40% chance of long term stalemate and cold war with oil price at current levels (95) but unrestricted navigation that prevents it going higher.

Iranians clearly have the destructive ability to send oil and some chemicals such as sulfer and polipropoline skywards fro which the GUlf supplies upwards of 40% of globally traded volume.

I am hoping our unaudited update due some time this week (probably Thursday) will give a short term boost but a dash for plus 7 quid will probably need a credible ceasefire and audited results and with that broker upgrades to 8 plus.

It has been a funny ride.

I was selling into the rise to 11.82 august 2021 and then “bought the dip” when it went down to 1050 in September 2021. It was a dip and went back up to 11.54 shortly but after that fell and fell and I hung and hung waiting for the V shaped recovery (as happened in covid dip) and then waiting for the U shaped recovery (where I am now).

We are only part way up the final leg of a U shaped recovery. The portfolio is stronger than it was 4.5 years ago and we never booked much the 2021 froth. We will get back to 11.82 in the near future and then onwards from there.

I note some days when we are up but volume very light. Indicates to me few retail sellers. Just big boys playing around -and for the moment they are bullish.

I also note that we seem to go up or down a bit ahead of the market. I put that down to a market leader like Blackrock trading their portfolio at the margin and we see the result quicker as we are very sensitive to small volumes of sells or buys. So going up (or like today holding our own with war news about) might be an indicator of big boys waiting to buy and narrow our discount ahead of year end unaudited year end results due out in a few days.

Nice uplift year on year. Secondaries should allow Grow to book some of that potential this year as well as give beancounters confidence to not discount the secondary valuation so sharply (currently 75bn discounted to 55bn for no better reason than caution).

Just beancounters accepting 75bn valuation means a jump of 54m in our NAV. An IPO at 200bn means 400m boost to our nav and nav/share jumping from 724 to 926. Other high performing companies plus a upgrade of our seed fund valuations should result in a NAV/share north of 12 quid in the forseeable future and a SP above that once the market starts to expect regular large NAV/share upgrades again (as it did in our initial years).