Member Info for steph

Last year we had our unaudited update April 24. It’s never been on a Friday or Monday so most likely this Thursday or next Tuesday.

Quite a lot of discretion involved . Few new hard price discovery points like IPO’s or buy outs.

For example I understand Grow has an assumption of Revolt valuation of 55bn usd when the last secondary sale indicated 75. Just closing that gap would be a big boost to H2 NAV/share. Certainly could as Revout is going form strength to strength and IPO betting markets say 120bn (which means more when it actually occurs in the future). So 75 looking very solid.

I predict a cautious valuation strategy for H2 and thus modest NAV/share gains. Enough to give us a nice SP boost but nothing spectacular. I’m buying in anticipation of results and hope that stupid Iranian war will be over by then.

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Yes announced full UK banking license plus a crypto stable coin UK pound offer and an upcoming secondary sale at 100bn USD this year. IPO next year at around 150bn. Secondary sales considered building blocks to price discovery so IPO 150bn supported. Revolut on it’s own enough to give us double digit NAv/share growth over this year and next.

what a mess.

we are very sensitive to us interest rates and they in turn on inflation and inflation in turn on oil, chemical and fertilizer wholesale prices. so war in the gulf hurts us.

trump an ******* but he does follow the stock market and that may yet induce some common sense soonish. a long war with iran will bottle up the global economy. iran even much degrades will still be able to close the strait of hormuz and with that 20% of global traded oil and over 30% of globally traded fertilizers and maybe 20% of commodity chemicals and plastics. it is massive.

houthis more or less closed for an indefinite period the red sea and suez canal route for the most part on a fraction of the drone and missile capability of iran. trump has not thought this through. iran can’t defeat israel or usa in a military sense but can impose unacceptable costs on the us economy and thus influence the outcome of the us mid term elections. self interest is what drives trump. expect a trump declaration of victory sooner rather than later.

Relatively high volumes. I think big smart money has been trimming in anticipation of conflict so not much more to go down when war actually broke out.. The SP is around bottom and today we got some buy back in pressure.

Fills the news and looks spectacular. but death toll on both sides actually quite low. Iran will run out of capacity to launch major salvos soon and the remarkable ability to shoot them down will thus be even more effective.

The uncertainly is around Trump. Will he take a win and unilaterally freeze the attacks. Iran in turn would likely stop. Iran needs time to reorganize it’s leadership to even be a partner in negotiating an off ramp. At the moment Iranian military units capable of firing are independently making decisions based on historical instructions. Some form of central control needs to be reestablished to negotiate an end.

Killing whole layers of religious leaders hardly a way to negotiate. Risk is whatever more junior Iranian leadership emerges is less able to carry the nation and make a painful compromise. Plus the religious leadership is not transactional in the way Trump thinks everybody is in the end so may not rationally minimize the national damage. Risk of a failed state result.

Sang quite right not a VCT, apologies. VC only or more precisely:

“Publicly listed venture capital company”

I understand this is also a very small sector compared to evergreen and fixed terms with 6 trillion between them.

Our GROW is a VCT (venture capital trust) which is a rather unique UK way of holding private equity shares. There are few outside uk. UK total holdings in VCT’s is 6 billion. The rather strange (for me) discount to NAV/share we have now in our VCT is in part due to the market nerviness on fixed term (5.3 trillion globally) evergreen funds (0.7 trillion). Both Fixed and evergreen are under much less pressure to quickly mark to market than a UK VCT. Indeed fixed are under little pressure at all until the end of a typically 10 year investment period.

The result is that GROW who have been aggressive in marking down NAV/share in a downturn is tarred with the brush of the much much larger fixed and evergreens who have marked down the same private equity assets more slowly. We will not get back to a premium to NAV/share until the much larger evergreens and fixed clear their assets through sales which was normally an IPO opportunity. The lack of IPO volume is gumming up the whole larger ecosystem even though we have a conservative NAV calculation. Market does not trust our calculations. We need cash exits to prove it and they are few and far between.

Next few weeks will be choppy but not necessarily a downtrend. A lot of war about yet not a big impact on our SP. Ukraine much larger war risk yet it has not been something that has had a direct large impact on our SP. US interest rates remain the key variable.

Conversely we might get a boost whenever the fighting stops. I doubt if there will be a settlement but maybe a cold peace.

Thanks I misunderstood your post. Still “only” a 29% discount to NAV/share for a far worse portfolio is improvement of sorts I geuss.

GROW ran strong SP premiums to NAV/share for a long time. I suspect we will get back to a premium within a year or 2 as increases in NAV/share of at least 15% per annum become the expectation again.

SP Premium over NAV/share was 23% march 2017, 66% Sept 2017, 48% March 2018, 54% Sept 2018, 37 March 2019, 9% Sept 2019, - 57% March 2020 (covid dip), +56% sept 2020 (covid recovery), 22% march 2021, 13% sept 2021 and then all hell broke lose as interest rates rose.

We are obviously gong to get a sharp upgrade of ICEYE. I’ve guessed we have it on our books ofr. A billion valuation and now pushing 4bn but not suore of what we have it on our books for. Whatever it is a big uplift coming for this year end. Given ICEYE is 73 m of our NAV (about 5% of the total) even “just a” doubling is a 5% NAV/share boost.

Lots more upgrades coming through. ISAR of course but we have 30m booked value so doubling only 30m or about 2%. I’m hoping our seed funds will get an upgrade which would have a huge impact on NAV/share given the 30% plus weighting. Been sleeping for years so due an upgrade as comparable multiples are going up. At some point our beancounters must acknowledge our seed funds have grown.

Revolut is on our books for 151 m at 2026 half year results at what is assumed to be a Revolut US 55 bn valuation. So an uplift in the next fiscal year to 100bn + by secondary sales and in next year after that to 150bn hard cash will supercharge on it’s own our NAV/share. IPO better than secondary sales as our beancounters will have no option but to book the full cash value. At the moment they discounted the 75bn secondary sale to 55bn. Admirable caution but it leaves a lot of GROW value hidden and for the future realization. It is, perhaps, an overly cautious mark to market approach. This steep discount approach even on hard market data like large secondary sales to our NAV was maybe needed in the 2022 to 2025 period but is not really appropriate gong forward.

If our beancounters booked Revolut at 110bn on the secondary sale and then 150 bn on the IPO that would boost NAV/share by 151m and then 277m on IPO. Our total net portfolio value is 1.4bn so that is a serious percentage rise based on only one share.

That is a GROW NAV/share just over 8 quid on secondary valuation and 8.6 on Revolut IPO. That is the impact of just one share. In our portfolio.

Recent purchase of Augmentum at it’s nav/share surely shows the days big SP discounts to NAV/share are gone. Our portfolio vastly superior to Augmentum.

I bought and it has been going down. Maybe I should sell a small amount and watch it rise.

I plan to buy a few today. Wait for the immediate drop after I do!!!!

Ive bought a few in the last few days and are planning on buying more March 1 when bonus come in and April 6 when isa opens up again.

These is also a correlation as to when I buy and stock dips. More I buy the greater the dip. Some AI must be tracking me as the bet against economist.

My memory may be rose tinted. I do recall volatility but with substantive news good or bad. Not like today or yesterday 10% peak to dip on absolutely nothing.

Horrible volatility. We did not bounce around like this on AIM.

NAv per share peaked at 937 March 31 2022. Generally up to that peak SP was always above NAv/share not at a discount as we have had since then.

We are clearly heading for a NAV/share of 937 again within 2 years -maybe sooner. Momentum in that direction should eliminate the discount.

Our seed portfolio has not had a NAV upgrade for years but the small companies within are maturing and adding value. So at some point that will get rerated.

Also more ICEYE’s will make a breakthrough.

REvolut on our books at quite a conservative discount. I imagine many others the same. So a lot of the NAV needed to get up to 937 already there just suppressed by the beancounters for safety margins.

I do think we will explode sp wise soon. Money flowing into sector again. Valuations will rise. BIg tech and US tech VC saturated. Money must flow to UK EU which is underpriced.

Vol