Member Info for steph

Https://pitchbook.brightspotcdn.com/cf/53/430c71f849ff8a3970b37638419b/2025-annual-us-pe-breakdown.pdf

Looking up for 2026/27 especially valuations

Often very light volume when it does. big sustainable moves up or down usually accompanied by high volume

I have a thesis that Black ROck trades it’s position with us at the margin of its postion constantly making adjustments. It and dumps us when it sees a short market dip coming buying back on the dip and thus exacerbating volatility. Black Rock is so large *14 trillion usd under management) it can see a market dip coming hours or days ahead and may even be an agent in causing the size of the general market dip. Churn deliberately to cause buying opportunities. We thus whip about on relatively minor unrelated market dips. I’d love to see black rock below 3 % of our owners and the Irish sovereign wealth fund over 10%.

What happened today?

Molten Ventures (LSE: GROW), a leading venture capital firm investing in and developing high-growth digital technology businesses, announces that, upon completion of its £10 million share repurchase programme announced on 23 October 2025, it will commence an additional share repurchase programme of up to £10 million (the "Programme").

Berenberg raises Molten Ventures price target to 615 (580) pence - 'buy'

Mikem

I think it still has a long way to go from here. Back to 11.82 by June 2027 -so long as Trump does not blow up global economy.

Maybe I’m overweighting Trump instability on our SP.

Looking at German stock market it was remarkably stable and went on a long upswing after Hitler came to power in 1933 all the way up to December 1942. German losses in Stalingrad late 1942 was the first trigger for a sustained downswing. It was even stable after Germany declared war on the USA following Pearl Harbor in December 1941. That is 9 good years in spite of boycotts of german goods, disruption of trade, tariffs, and a a serious brain drain.

A strong man throwing his weight around does not necessarily cause global SP instability. I suppose it is priced in already.

There is a poor case for a steep discount at the moment to NAV/share.

Trump risk is not affecting global markets much. Indeed Hitlets even wilder actions did not hurt the german stock market at teh time until he started loosing WW2

Https://www.moltenventures.com/news/transforming-asset-management-molten-leads-4m-series-a-in-maia-technology

Bespoke tools that can use AI and integrate data in a disciplined way great.

IG markets run a spread bet on Revoult IPO price and that is currently 120bn so a long way upwards form our current value on the books of about 55bn.

One could argue that a spread bet price is the market price similar to a traded share -assuming of course enough volume to be credible. IPO spread bet price has been remarkably steady. If the beancounters allowed a spread bet price to be a proxy for an open market price we are due a fabulous NAV/share upgrade.

How can peel hunt put a buy recommendation and a 12 month target below current price. Idiots.

My own view is we are heading for a NAV/share of + 8 (possibly significantly plus) by Nov 2026 and 9.37 (our previous NAV/share high from march 31 2922) by April 2027. The effect on SP hard to know.

We traded at a premium to NAV/share last time our Nav/share was rising sharply. Maybe will do so again. Certainly I expect no significant discount once the market accepts NAV/share rises year on year reliably again as it should for this asset class. Below are our current 12 month broker forecasts. We have outrun broker forecasts before and I suspect will do again. Berenburg the worst offender. After overstating SP potential going into the big dip I think they are understating the 12 month SP potential coming out. They had a target of 1,300 May 2022 (way off and was out of date on the upside. They have had a target of 580 since the 27th of August 2024 and that is now way out of date on the downside. It assumes a sp to NAV/share discount of 27.5% November 2026 in spite of a by then nicely rising Nav/share. Not credible.

Barclays has raided their 12 month forecast form 4.75 to 5.75 just now Dec 8th 2025

Berenburg keeps it at 5.80 from Apr 2025

Deutshe 7.24 Nov 26 2025.

Average 6.27

I expect a SP of around 8 quid by this time next year and plus 10 by end of April 2027.

The frozen pipelines of private equity dealmaking are starting to thaw, according to one of Wall Street’s top finance chiefs.

Private equity firms have been grappling for years with a tough market for asset sales, making it harder to sell portfolio companies at acceptable valuations while dragging out the process of paying off investors. But activity appears to have picked up from earlier in the year, when global conflicts and Donald Trump’s trade war caused more executives and companies to pause.

Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer Denis Coleman says things are loosening up. Sponsor-led activity is finally rising across the industry, with announced deal volumes up 40% this year. “It’s fair to say it’s now happening,” he said. —David E. Rovella

Great reference as we finally know what GROW have used for Revolut valuation. I asked that precise question at the results presentation and did not get an answer.

The cautious beancounters at GROW have been exposed to revile that they discounted Revolut by 27% to the recent well accepted 75 bn valuation based on an oversubscribed secondary sale.

What more evidence do we need that NAV/share as reported it under fair value never mind lagging near future value. What on earth is the justification for a steep discount to NAV/share anymore. Stupid, stupid stupid.

Https://deal.ig.com/web-platform/#/tearoff/market/IX.D.REVOLGREY.DAILY.IP

Assuming GROW have it's 151 m shares in Revolt at around a 45bn usd valuation at some point soon they will have to raise the valuation on the books by a very substantial amount. Even just going from 45 bn to 75 bn usd means the 151 lifts overall NAV of GROW by 100m which is massive. However the spot market for an eventual IPO of Revolut says the market expects Revolut to go well beyond 75bn by the time it IPO's later this year or early next. Assuming the current spot market IPO price is the delivered price at IPO (120bn) the uplift is for 151 to 402. Transformative for GROW's NAV/share on its own.

Plus we have several other emerging stars. Plus our seedcamp and earlybird funds which have not moved for years are due a NAV increase as sales multiples rise in the sector and the portfolios mature and move organically to funding round stages.

Https://www.ft.com/content/5cd37cea-87e7-4648-b85b-f77091dd4558?accessToken=zwAAAZr3o84Rkc9c03zqh-dGSNO4W_dwkd1FWA.MEUCIQDq5wulGdVATndwj73EnMCsmiNWPI-l5qZnz15ufFZ45gIgTWcOZZS9buqcCBfbXYu9eXUyV6dbsv6pR56-nV5qoxI&segmentId=e95a9ae7-622c-6235-5f87-51e412b47e97&shareType=enterprise&shareId=a29f0c3d-def0-4dcd-a10c-36e4aea6fd9c

Insider Stuart Malcolm Chapman sold 226,385 shares of the company's stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, December 1st. The shares were sold at an average price of GBX 458, for a total value of £1,036,843.30.

Https://uk.investing.com/analysis/molten-ventures-sees-nav-momentum-lift-from-revolut-and-deeptech-exits-view-200620712

B of a fluctuating around 5 m share ownership.

blackrock a big reduction from 9.1 to 6.9 from a peak iof around 13% as a result of the merger. explains the downward volatility we have had had bouncing off 5 quid twice