Member Info for steph

Thanks hope, great link.

Will be more impactful tomorrow when sone forward guidance shared

True on low volume days even a little bit of retail selling can have an outsized impact.

We seemed to have more price stability on AIM. Maybe the wider margins helped stop day trading -which has a tendency to exacerbate minor movement.

What I am failing to come up with is an adequate explanatory thesis is why we are below half NAV/share right now. OUr discount or premium to NAV/share seems to track very closely the secondary market premium or discount to last formal round -which itself is very closely aligned with sales multiples for unlisted tech. That secondary market is now trading at a premium to last round and sales multiples seem to be nicely up in the last few months -so why are we not following as yet? Maybe the storm up is just about to hit?

Anyhow 16 hours until interim results.

I posted the MF analysis only to show what the “experts” thought Feb 2022. I’m afraid I was in that pack. Bruised and wiser now.

Interesting to look at how tiny true retail investors such as us are as a % of total GROW ownership. General public (us) only 2.4%. Less in total than most institutional investors. So small investor panic can not have a large impact on SP. Large SP moves must be funds coming in or out.

Also a worry that many of those institutional investors could invest in the assets directly so that limits what premium to NAV/share we might get to (if we ever get out of this discount hole we are in).

% Ownership. Company % inc or decrease

12.9% BlackRock, Inc. -3.4%

7.75 % Ireland Strategic Investment Fund 0%

6.00% British Patient Capital Limited 0%

5.36%. Baillie Gifford & Co. -12.1%

4.91%. The Vanguard Group, Inc. -2.23%

4.9%. Liontrust Asset Management PLC. -4.53%

3.4% Carne Global Fund Managers Ireland 0%

3.28% Border To Coast Pensions Partnership +4.82

3.07% Schroder Investment Management Limited +3.36

3.01% Fidelity International Ltd +18.6%

2.62% Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management Ltd. +1.77

2.61% Cazenove Capital Management Ltd. 0

2.41% Hermes Investment Management Limited +0.1%

2.34% Federated Hermes, Inc. 0

2.3% Aberdeen Group Plc -2.6%

2.29% Legal & General Investment Management -2.86%

1.94%. Canaccord Genuity Asset Management -1.46

1.63% Columbia Management Investment Advisers, 25.1%

1.58% The National Farmers Union Mutual Insurance 0%

1.5% N.F.U. Mutual Unit Managers Limited. + 1.38%

1.49% LGT Capital Partners (Ireland) Ltd. 0%

1.45% Oberweis Asset Management, Inc. +34.5%

1.32% Rathbones Investment Management +3.49

0.95% Norges Bank Investment Management + 1,240%

0.83%. Bowan Dartington & Co. Ltd., Asset 0.24%

Normaly Motely Fool pretty good. They clearly did not see the dip coming from 7.82 down to 2.1. Still I think the stock will make good. Nothing really bad has happened to protfolio. Lots of stored value from here onward. Good luck all.

“ An exciting tech stock

Molten Ventures (LSE: GROW) is similar in terms of its earnings growth. For the 2017 fiscal year, EPS was 80.8. By the same period in 2021, this figure stood at 208. By my calculations, this results in a compounding annual growth rate of 20.8%. While this FTSE 250 stock is not as competitive as Hochschild Mining, it is certainly strong and consistent.

Another factor that makes Molten Ventures attractive is its profitability. Between the fiscal years 2017 to 2021, profit has grown from £33.68m to £267.45m before tax. This strongly suggests that the stock’s business model of finding early stage tech companies is working.

Indeed, it has a strong record of finding companies that have later listed publicly. These include Trustpilot Group and Cazoo Group. Furthermore, the FTSE 250 stock is recycling its earnings efficiently, investing £259m in 12 primary and 15 secondary projects for the 2022 fiscal year.

In spite of this, the recent tech sell-off impacted Molten Ventures and is concerning. However, I believe this is a short-term problem that will subside in the near future. The company stated this month, for instance, that it was enjoying “continued momentum”.

Both of these stocks are ‘no-brainers’ in my opinion. The growth records speak for themselves and suggest that both companies are performing for their shareholders. By investing in mining and tech, I will also further diversify my portfolio. I will be buying shares in both stocks immediately.”

Trump doing his best to rain on our parade but even with the chaos unleashed we should get a lift Thursday when we turn the first profit for 3 years. Hawkish BOE member says tariffs probably deflationary for UK which means more UK rate cuts ahead. I’m sure behind the scene US Fed will compromise with Trump rather than risk a open confrontation. They will never publicly admit to it though. Promises are probably already being made behind the scenes or will be shortly.

We can regain 10 quid a share without a major thaw in the IPO market it will just take more time. No company in core portfolio seems to be in trouble -which is an unusually good situation. Just steady sales growth, adequate runway lengths and progress to strategic micro market share and profitability. From this very low level SP increases should be pretty fast if not steady. If IPO market thaws increases will be very fast indeed. A lot of stored value in the seed and portfolio.

Trumps trade wars should not have a big impact on our portfolio. May even help by concentrating global money on EU/UK rather than USA. Already German bonds priced safer than US.

Peterr

Even wirh IPO headwinds I think a 30% discout to NAV/share a neutral SP. Any more at this stage is overshoot.

Our portfolio not dependent on IPO for “profit”. Yes we will not get the IPO pricing well above book value that we got in 2016 to 2019 period -boosting SP in that period to a solid and steady premium over NAV/share. However NAV/share solid and will start going up even wihtout CPO exists. Secondaries, sales growth, steady runway lenghts are all in play.

Once IPO market properly unthaws we wil fly above previous highs (sales growth means our portfolio is larger than 2021 so we don’t need the same price to sales ratio to get there -just stability)

It is a fear of mine at such low SP. Might get the votes for a buy out at circa 4 to 4.5 quid and with that any chance for a recovery to plus 10 for me that I think is coming -if I am patient (but not that patent -I expect 10 plus within 2 years)

Hopefully with our results this year ( coming up soon) we will sail at least a bit away from the rocks so to speak.

Thanks for your posts. I’m on a steep learning curve on how a retail wrapper for unlisted unprofitable assets works under stress. I had theorized we (GROW SP) would be fairly stable in a crisis due to the lack of liquidity of the underlying assets. Wrong, so wrong.

I suspect a lot of overshoot on the downside due to a lack of transparency on valuations, sales and runway length per asset. Big funds like black rock have this info so we are at a significant disadvantage in stressed markets.

ANyhow 7 days till our unaudited interim results. If we finally show a “profit” (total valuation per share rising) our discount to NAV/share should come down. With IPO market predicted to be subdued in 2025, due to trade war uncertainty, we will not get an SP close to NAV/share soon. But a more modest 30% discount maybe??? I’m all in.

Https://pitchbook.com/items/files?eu=0JXXanBX5iafmxxqVcMqpyMgKZkVv7OZ7dGH9WGCRgSUbhuMiMTcyvbikVHja4XHpfvO5ENa7IDFNfmRRzSNllb935qiTf4riUgeyTf%2FNAGXj9J%2FQSW2IsDWPZxEKwVp1PKFXk%2BBD7cRq84dzR03sDaDRL1i1FZfFPo%3D

See page 4 chart on VIX and sales price ratios. Q1 2025 as good as most quarters except for boom q2 2020 to q4 2021. Q1 2020 vix off the chart due to covid. We are not there q1 2025 in spite of Trump.

Anyhow Q12025 sales price ratios in good shape.

Pity the cut off date for currency movements was march 31 and not today but some fuel left in the tank for half yearlies end of September. Never-the-less currency movements since September 30 2024 mildly favorable.

Trump chaos depressing IPO market so I expect valuations will be conservative wherever they have discretion but already a lot of caution baked into valuations. Revolut a good example of a discount applied when it really need not have been.

We should see a healthy profit this year. Not spectacular but solid (50m to 100m) with lots of room for steady growth.

Https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/apr/11/amazon-slayer-dublin-startup-manna-aero-taking-giants-autonomous-drone-deliveries?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

I had Freetrade as the only decline in NAV of the 19 core portfolio. Now a modest increase on cash exit April 1.

We will get a nice NAV/share increase on 24 April update. How much depends on the multiple of sales the beancounters use. Pitchbook indicate a substantial recovery for the sector in terms of multiples over the last 6 months. Certainly no decline for (the first time since march 2023).

Too bad about the Trump dip but I’ve added quite a few ranging from 226 to 310 and I’ve optimistic these will show a profit soon and have brought down my whole position average.

I’ve bene wrong on when the recovery irreversibly starts for 3 years. Why not another 2 months?

A lot of headwinds to be sure but many politically driven which thus can reverse themselves suddenly. Trump chaos will harm the US economy and that means lower interest rates -the main driver of our discount to NAV/share.

We ran a surplus SP over NAV/share every half yearly result between march 31 2017 to September 30 2021 (with the exception of March 31 2020 COvid dip). We have run a steady deficit of SP over NAV/share for every half yearly result from March 31 2022 to present.

The main statistical correlation of the difference is US interest rates. These will come down as the US economy slows.Low oil prices will help offset nearly half of the tariff induced inflation on goods as us imports of goods as a percentage of the total consumption are not massive. ABout 15% of all US consumption is imports. The rest is domestic and unaffected by tariffs. Energy consumption is about 8% of total US spending and this is closely correlated with oil and gas pricing.

Whatever the chaos that tariffs against the Eu and CHina bring if the end result is a US recession the lowering of interest rates benefits our sector.

My analysis is an economists. Short term movement of the market can follow mood and animal spirits that are impossible to model.

I have been wrong for 3 years running but here goes.

4.50 sp by end of June 2025. NAV/share rises to circa 7.25 thus a 38% discount to NAV/share (discount persisting due to market instability but not as much as now).

Follows a substantial but not spectacular NAV/share increase on final results, some stability globally as tariff disruption beds in and some central bank interest rate reductions due to disruption. Guidance that NAV/share increases will be regular so long as market does not further deteriorate.

15 to 20 days away from our preliminary year end results -which I’m expecting to show the first profit (NAV/share increase) since year end March 2022.

I hope Trump economics does not rain on our parade. Medium term trump economics has little direct impact. Our portfolio not manufactured goods exporting to USA. They are manufactured goods within EU/UK (drones, rockets) or global services. Trump economics should bring down interest rates even with the headwind of higher USA prices due to tariffs. That is because tariffs are a one off price increase that is out of the statistics for “increases” 12 months later. It is not like rising wages that has a year on year impact. FED up to a point takes this into account.

To be fair USA has zero federal sales taxes but state and local sales taxes that are on average 8%.

Plus Germany levies the 19% federal sales tax on domestic as well as foreign cars so no disadvantage to foreign origin.

Pretty kooky calculation that treats federal sales tax as a tariff. Hopefully just a negotiating tactic.

Normally after a big dip and market jitters on Friday US authorities say sometime reassuring over the weekend.

This time as it is presidential induced and he sees it as a game of chicken not so. How long this game of chicken lasts who knows. I suspect a pause in the supplemental tariffs will be announced to allow time to negotiate. When who knows. The 10% is here to stay but that is not enough disruption to cause this panic. It is the supplementary ones plus the retaliation by China and EU that is driving this.

Roller coaster for sure. Buying opportunity of a generation for the brave (and those wise enough to have held off until now. Good luck tiger).