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Https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/HSBC-bank-venture-debt-vs-private-fund-loans
Its a mortgage on a recreational property.
i expect a full sp recovery (defined at 9.00 plus) by october 2024 but i will be able to wait if delayed. indeed additional borrowing has the objective of allowing more time on what i have and not just adding some.
the sectors that went down with interest rate rises will go up on anticipation of drops . still choppy waters on interest rates do not yet.
i genuinely thought that a tech unlisted portfolio of over a 1000 firms diversified by tech sector and eu uk geography was diversified enough but sadly no. yes a risk of management c_ck up but rather low risk i think for grow. c_ock up would need to be borrowing to invest just before a downturn and running out of operating capital just when realizations are hard to get even at discounted prices. trust structure itself can never go bankrupt if not leveraged and portfolio will never be worth zero even if a historically high percentage fail.
i never anticipated this volatility of the retail wrapper given the slow moving asset base but live and learn. with such volatility need some diversification so i can sell when needed without selling grow at the wrong time. indeed thd higher the volatility the more smaller a percentage of my holdings grow can be.
Im remortgaging to give me the ability to top up seriously.
our nav per share never went crazy in 2021 surge and we never had much to drop to get back to our long term trend line. no reason to be this far below and it will correct itself. companies we own in rude health and growing sales rapidly.
Still bumping along the bottom of the u.
trigger to start the last leg of up not quite yet. at some point improvement in the big tech valuations focus on ai where we have several companies and market acceptance our nav/share was sufficiently discounted to reflect new market and away we go. maybe earlier but certainly by half year results in october
Https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/Europe-PE-trends-q2-2023
Paid or not I don’t disagree with any of the Edison analysis. It seems quite measured and not a cheerleader. Good use of pitchbook data. MV and Edison keep saying NAV calculations “cautious” and basically marked to market (even when nobody will need to go to market) and not in anticipation of the NAV value in future rounds in slightly better times.
We have not yet moved on the following good news:
1) broker guidance all massively above current sp. I believe the highest differential of any FtSE 250 share.
2) director buys have not moved us much up in spite of being quite substantial and recent compared to FTSE 250 shares.
3) wider market for big listed tech has recovered substantially but not us -yet
What would for sure make us jump are:
1) price discovery by exiting some of our positions by trade sales or fundraising rounds of some of our core portfolio at or above the NAV we have them on. The books for. This has happened for a small part of our portfolio but if it was 2 or 3 or our biggest holdings we would jump exponentially.
2) pipeline repair of funding round market and the angst of down rounds to come with it gone.
3) NAV/share increases on our upcoming half yearly results with forward projections of more to come.
Https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/LBO-comeback-story-private-credit
I’m ashamed to say my first top up on this dip from 11.82 was at 11.20. Thought even 11.82 was “temporary” . Now I believe “temporary “ will be around 4 years from previous peak to beating that.
NO way of knowing in advance we could dip so far below NAV/share and stay there for so long. We dipped with the market well below NAV/share with the covid scare March 2020 when some though teh world was about to end but quickly recovered.
We may never see again the multiples of sales we got in 2021 valuations but we don’t need them to get back to 11.82 with fast sales growth of our core portfolio. I imagine when the market stabilizes for us there will be some catch up as well as the organic 20% growth.
Anyhow I have 12 quid pencilled in for May 2025 so 4 years peak to peak -maybe quicker.
We seem directionless right now (bouncing along the bottom) but that will surely change soon and a sustainable rise will happen when money pivots back into sector.
Https://files.pitchbook.com/website/files/pdf/Q2_2023_European_Venture_Report.pdf
My observation (which is casual -I’ve not run a formal “shift share” type statistical analysis) is that our ups and downs more linked to US interest rates than UK for whatever reason.
Certainly helpful if UK rates reach peak and the expectation is down. US a few months ahead of us so I’m expecting a boost in SP sooner rather than later. Signs of funding (tech sector vc/private equity) pipeline repairing itself but was never as broken as our SP implied. I just think a bit of panic in a black box of information uncertainty created by our retail shell structure plus sector has never had a long downturn for reference. sector is new at these volumes and “tradabiity” and is really for specialist investors not retail. IN a downturn you do not what to be a new tradable asset class.
I’d welcome some of our core portfolio going for funding in the near future. I think the implied valuations that will be “proven” will meet or exceed the NAV on our books for that company and with that a big boost in confidence in our NAV/share calculations. Those that have gone to market for funding since the crash have equalled or exceeded the valuation we had on them so far. Nothing to fear.
Still the Barclays guidance may trigger a few sells when we get above 4.30 and slow the rise to 2/3rds of NAV/share -which I consider a reasonable discount in current market. SP assumes we ahve calcuated NAV wrong for market and/or there will be a continuing market deterioration fast enough to offset the postive nav impact of rising sales of core portfolio.
Anyhow as a result I’ve pencilled in a slighly slower rise on the last leg of the “U”. Still by October 2024 I expct these to be plus 10 quid and by May 2025 finally over 12. A near 4 year dip before getting back to previous SP. THat is a long deep dip for a portfolio that has had very few dud’s and has excellent average sales growth across the portfolio. . From there onwards and upwards at our normal 20 to 30% sp and NAV/share growth. Maybe a bit of catch up from the missing 4 years as well.
Broker guidance at 6 quid (Berenburg + Barclay) and all insiders filing their boots. This should fly some time pretty soon. I’m holding until we are back at 11.82, whenever that is, but I expect within 2 years After that I’ll diversify a bit but GROW will still be 50% of my long term future portfolio. At the moment it is 100%.
Where the good guy gets beaten to a pulp but miraculously to a cheering crowd takes control, recovers and wins. 2.45 is ridiculous. Barclays guidance will slow rise a bit above 4 quid as some take profit but historically this does seem to move disconnected by broker guidance high or low.