Member Info for steph

Https://www.business-live.co.uk/technology/gb-group-shares-soar-after-30165210

most similar traded find to us.

Https://files.pitchbook.com/website/files/pdf/Q3_2024_European_PE_Breakdown.pdf

This sub 4 quid price just can’t last. Irrational, illogical under pricing.

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-and-other-chip-stocks-surge-with-no-sign-of-ai-spending-slowdown--for-now-212335257.html

i did not expect our sector to lag the listed market by 2 years or more coming out if a dip. Argg!

at 3.90 we are around our launch price 8 years ago in spite of an obviously larger portfolio value per share, stupid. Nothing to do with 2021 froth.

anyhow we are now due a surge or maybe we will miss the recovery entirely. my money is on a much delayed surge. just need biden and harris to not drift into ww3.

Https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q3-2024-us-pe-breakdown

End of share buyback also may have caused a bit of a drift down on low volumes of late.

IN 3 weeks we will get half yearly unaudited results which should show a substantial profit for the first time in 3.5 years. I’m expecting that will move the needle as will any forward guidance that profit is back to stay.

Choppy market but a lot of bad news priced in.

Some time between 26 oct and 10 Nov it seems.

28 Oct in 2019, 28 Oct in 2020, 4 Nov in 2021, 2 Nov in 2022, 10 Nov in 2023.

I expect that will give us a boost although historically good interim results have done much less than good final results. I think attention only paid by 20 somethings that run many funds when integrated with yearly spread sheets.

Last day today. Euro Pound exchange slightly not in our favour. 1.17 March 31 2024 and now 1.20. A stronger pound makes the 60% of our NAV that is in the eurozone look smaller on UK reported results.

Monday last day of first half year results that will show “profit” for some time. Indeed last time we had profit was last march 31 2021 a stonking 301m. Then we pivoted quickly into losses by 30 Sept 2021 (still middle of boom valuations for many) at -155 for half year.

In short we have aggressively been downgrading NAV of portfolio earlier and more aggressively that some might say was strictly necessary on last round valuations achieved in the 2021 post covid boomlet.

Grow core portfolio unusually free of normal percentage of market fails. Only Cazoo has gone under and only after we got a good Percentage of our invested money out. Runway lengths healthy as well. Don’t quite know how that was achieved without late round funding but capital preservation plus new financing mechanisms in play.

IN short we go into this period of profit again like a coiled spring ready to go. We did have a modest dilution due to 55m in at a sub NAV/share price now partially offset by share purchase with more to come as realizations continue.

This share is heading for it’s previous high of 11.82. Just can’t say when. My guess is sooner rather than later.

Inflation will fall quicker than most expect and with that Bank rates. I believe alongside most economists, the long run neutral rate for the bank is now closer to 1% than 3 or so. Basically as with Japan a lot of retired people chasing fewer productive opportunities for their money. ON that thesis EU will drop deeper than the FED but even USA aging and Trump/ Biden/Harris restrictions on immigration will slow that economy and curtail the exceptionalism of USA whose economy is propped by by net migration.

Anyhow cost of capital will drop sharply and with that this sector which as a long term perspective but still decent returns still will soar.

I also think innovation by small EU/UK companies will be a bigger sector than the big American behemoths. Natoinalisim will partly come into it as will trade restrictions imposed by USA.

GOod luck all.

They do seem to trade at the margins of their holding while keeping a core. This causes increased volatility. No evidence of any strategic reduction for some time though.

I’d prefer all institutional investors to be like the Irish sovereign wealth fund. They never seem to trade their holding. Be good to have a few more sovereign wealth funds.

I did worry when we were well below 3 that a hostile bid or a management take private bid might succeed and permanently lock us out of the 12 quid plus I think this is going within the next 2 years or so. Less of a risk at 4 quid.

Looking more carefully it shows a maintain on the last short within an overall short down trend.

Apologies.

Last short position against us closed on 23 sept.

Can’t imagine a shorter now given we are about to start getting NAV/share upgrade again. I don’t think that is priced in at all. I always felt GROW had within the limits of what they were allowed tried to smooth results to be steady by suppressing good news and discounting valuations against last round evidence more than needed. We never priced in the peak within our NAV/share. The result is pretty conservative valuations right now based on worst case scenarios that have not come tru nor are likel to come true.

True as Jamie Diamond says choppy market going forward with a lot of war risk. War risk real risk for us as war can be inflationary by disrupting supply lines for commodities. Not much evidence of Ukraine and Middle east wars doing much more of that but always a risk. Conversely peace will do the reverse.

If I were American (fortunately not) I’d be tempted to vote for Trump based on the odds of him quickly shutting Ukrainian war.

Almost all international borders the result of some sort of military balance of power at formation including the existing border between USA and Canada and Mexico. Justice does not come into it or we all would be at war all the time.

A stable border between Israel and it’s neighbors (including whatever rump of a Palestinian state that is possible) is essential for peace (or at least an absence of war). Odds of Trump seeing the territorial expansion as “bad for business” and actually doing something to stop it higher than brain dead Biden or Manchurian candidate Harris. Odds of Trump doing something stupid that makes it all worse high too but the choice for AMericans is pretty dire.

Edison report serves as a semi official guidance on NAV expectations for half yearly result. SO we can expect a 7% lift in NAV/share dated end of Sept 2024 (subject to currency movements (which can be up to 50m either way) and a few other less impactful accounting bits. About 60% of GROW portfolio in eurozone so exchange rate between euro zone and pound affects aggregate valuations. I don’t think exchange rate has moved much in the last 6 months. Roughy 1.17 in March to 1.20 now. Unfavorable movement but not huge.

Https://d3s3shtvds09gm.cloudfront.net/9bd85af6362582dce284f0bf16fad43a.pdf

Half year close is sept 30. It will take a few weeks after that for the update. Typically 4.

Grow can however give preliminary guidance at any time including before close. Typically rare but has happened.

Https://files.pitchbook.com/website/files/pdf/Q3_2024_Quantitative_Perspectives_A_New_Regime_Begins.pdf

As I’ve mentioned before on half yearly results we should get a healthy NAV/share uplift. Revolut alone is 95m of uplift (profit). If GROW signal and the market accepts this is the start of regular NAV/share upgrades going forward (as before) all justification for a SP discount of NAV/share evaporates.

Organic growth from current valuations plus some easing of the late round and IPO market should mean fast paced NAV/share upgrades over the next 3 years.

Of all the possible variables US interest rates appeared to have the most impact on our SP. More than EU and UK interest rates even though all our portfolio is inside EU and UK. More than war, more than UK elections.

Thus high US rates coming down towards a neutral 3% over the next 15 months is good news. Dropping price of commodities will also cause a push down on inflation just as high commodity prices gave a push up. So I expect inflation to surprise on the downside a bit. Did not pick up if fed stopping operation twist on printed money but I’d expect it. Very expensive way to slow economy and if no need poor use of money.

I’m very focussed on our 3 year high of 11.82 achieved September 2021. While that may have been a surge due to market optimism I think the portfolio has grown into that valuation by fast 50% plus sales/year organic growth, conservative valuations during the 2021 peak, very low rate of failures in the portfolio (great stock picking and runway management) and only a modest dilution now being partly corrected by the share buy backs.

Anyhow I’m not taking profit until at least the 11.82 is hit again -whenever that is. I expect within 2 years. Maybe faster if late round and IPO market unfreeze.

Always a large trade at 4:35 basically market close consideration of trades that were earlier. . Significant if unusually large or not aligned in last minute trades just before 4:30.

Dumb money profit taking and selling right now just ahead of our first half with NAV/share gains for a while. Dumb money will be buying after the update. We now have enough data to predict a NAV/share increase and a substantial one. With interest rates finally dropping the late round and IPO market should improve as well perhaps by the second half. Then this will rocket. We have had no bankruptcies from any the 60 plus core portfolio. Kazoo we broke even on before it went under after IPO. . Graphcore we broke even on before our exit. Amazing given the lousy money raising market for 2.5 years.

2.5 years from now I see 15 quid or more. Hang in there.