Member Info for steph

Many counties do not have ISA equivalant. Always make use of it to the full if you can. Lot’s of flexibility on how you invest inside the ISA wrapper.

Spread betting in UK also an international outlyer in terms of the tax free benefits to UK residents (tax free gains) but interest wil be charged on the whole position even if you have cash on deposit to fully cover. When interest rates were low this was not a big deal but right now makes all but the most rapidly growing position uneconomic to hold medium to long term. Better to buy in a regular way and pay the taxes (or write off the losses).

As I am working abroad I did dapple with an offshore shares account. Fees are charged on the postion you transferred (not current value) which if your postion grows is not big deal but if you have losses becomes burdensome and you can't use a tax deduction either. PLus time cnsuming to move money in and out.

Beyond ISA makes sense to put in a regualr share account and pay taxes if you have the good forsight to get stong gains. UK captial gains taxes are not exorbitant.

OUr modest gains in the last few days are hopefully part of a recovery to 2/3rds of NAV which is where I think we should be in these choppy market conditions. REsults this year (half yearly and full year) should show a NAV/share growing again and with that the discount should tighten to near NAV/share. Then all depends on perfomrance which in turn depends on market conditons for IPO and late rounds, which seems to depend on interest rate expectations.

After a few halfs with solid NAV/share increases (circa 20% per annum) we should start trading at a premium to NAV/share again but given this dip will never be a large premium for many years.

I would never concentrate risk as much again.

i am where i am and not about to change at this point in the cycle. im confident grow will revisit 11.82 high within 3 years. nothing else on the market can do that % uplift. then 5 years late ill diversify reducing grow to 1/3rd of isa

"The news follows our recent announcement in relation to Perkbox, and reflects the additional momentum being seen in the realisations market. With multiple realisation processes either underway or planned across the portfolio we expect to deliver in the region of £100 million of capital back to the balance sheet this financial year.

"We will provide an update on our capital allocation policy in respect of these anticipated proceeds, which focuses on NAV per share accretive deployment, at the time of our full year results on 12 June 2024."

I doubt if buying at below what our cash raising paid some months ago (2.75) is “buying at the top”. That money had access to detail on the portfolio we do not have.

Im expecting we will drift up a bit more but we will not really fly until October half yearly results when we should get our first NAV/share increase for some time.

“Modestly above” our holding on our books of 35m means circa 40m cash realization.

HOw easy the money is now pouring in now that we have prospects of realizations . The 55m fundraising last year was painful and dilutive at 2.75 when NAV /share was circa 700.

Now our portfolio is converting to cash at premiums to our NAV calculations.

Can’t see how our huge discount to NAV/share can last at this level. Even 2.78 a steal.

I’ve got 71,000 GROW shares in my ISA. Ridiculously concentrated investment strategy and currently well underwater (4.50 average). However, within 5 years I expect the 71,000 shares will be worth over a million and I’ll be set for life. Wish me luck.

Follow-on funding was provided to support Endomag's continued growth in 2020. The deal values Molten's stake in Endomag modestly above its Group holding value of £35 million

I’ve not done a formal statistical correlation but we move with certain indicators more than others, but it does seem to shift.

Biggest seems to be interest rates and US rates more influence than UK for whatever reason.

Second biggest indicator is Tech 100 US which we track a lot of the time but not now.

Third is FTSE 250.

Forth is geopolitical risk linked to commodity prices in turn linked to inflation and in turn linked to interest rates.

Forth is

"Underlying Gross Portfolio fair value (unaudited) stabilized and broadly flat for the year at constant currency, reflecting a modest increase in the like-for-like portfolio in the second half and positive contribution from the two acquisitions (first half: 3.7% decrease, second half: 4.2% increase at constant currency)."

That is good news buried under the NAV/share decrease attributable to the "one off " dilution and currencies movements.

Our core portfolio is finally growing a bit in NAV and this should accelerate as the 63% revenue increase's kick in for any revenue multiplier valuations. As the market continues to stabilize we should have some late rounds and IPO's that confirm our NAV calculations nicely.

I foresee NAV/share 15 to 20% higher by March 31 2025 with good further prospects to keep that pace or better it. With that our steep discount to NAV/share should be over. What SP relationship to NAV/share we have after that covers a range. Once the market accepts 15% to 20% growth of portfolio value as a credible sustainable rate SP should fluctuate between 80% of NAV/share and 130% depending on general market conditions. That is broadly our history.

I do think there will be some bounce back (in addition to organic growth of 15% to 20%) on our NAV/share as the downgrades were not based on portfolio failure but subjective views of valuations in the absence of hard market testing via funding rounds or IPO. A funding round valuation is much more solid than a revenue comparable and can take into account IP and niche factors. Graphcore is worthless using a revenue multiplier but clearly still has value. Ditto for many others. The higher the IP the greater the lag in NAV is revenue multipliers are the only key.

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/private-equity-valautions-holding-firm-130354578.html

The preliminay unaudited results state no downgrade of NAV/share for portfolio. That will be in the audited finals.

Some retrace of NAV/share due to dilution in raising the 55m below NAV/share and 19m unfavorable currency movement (random). Those wil be considered one offs.

You are braver than I to try to judge short term movements. In any case you should now short them according to your analysis. Good luck. I’m long for sure and optimistic of SP increases on final results.

If it had not been for the dilution and the 19m currency movement in the wrong direction we would have had a small increase in NAV/share from September. I’m calling bottom on NAV/share downgrades. Now organic growth of portfolio booming along at 63% revenue growth will start to kick in going forward.

Step aboard before train leaves the station.

Mixed but overall positive -especially forward guidance for 2025.

63% revenue growth of core portfolio will finally NAV/share in coming year.

90% of companies have runway s of over 12 months and 50% a remarkable 24 months.

Basically saying NAV/share downgrades over at 661. Should be growth from her forward -maybe in part proportional to sales growth. No reason for 2.42 SP. Should now be 75%-80% of NAV/share.

NAV/share back to 2021 results. 3 years of no growth. That is sufficient.

I worry about grow being taken private. they have been private before and if being retail does not help fundraising whats the point?

are we all investing at the cusp of ww3?

i worry the wars could spiral out of control. netanyahu has a vested interest in dragging us all in to their mess and biden in particular just a mug or puppet in the process. if bidens red lines came with real consequences we would not be where we ate but talk is cheap.

Https://files.pitchbook.com/website/files/pdf/Q1_2024_European_Venture_Report.pdf

Https://techcrunch.com/2024/04/16/apple-lawsuit-behind-it-chip-startup-rivos-plots-its-next-moves/

Though competitive sector but money can be raised as lot’s of potential as well.

Which portfolio companies are struggling? Even graphcore will probably hold it’s value for us.

SO why the 2/3rds discount to NAV/share? For my money an anomaly that will correct itself in due course. Markets can be irrational for limited periods of time -especially for specific shares such as ours with subjective hidden valuations to worry punters.

Sounds like ICEYE will contribute to a positive NAV/share news for us in results due within 2 weeks. ICEYE was the second largest NAV upgrade on half yearly results and is currently worth 40m on our books.

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-says-a-wall-street-revival-is-finally-here-080059304.html

Oakblokes research suggests"For example GROW values its 0.35% holding in Revolut at £54.5m. This means Revolut is worth £15.4bn ($19.5bn)."So whilst the Schroders valuation uplifts is not as meaningful as where they were valuing, it looks like a 30% uplift on where Molten currently hold..which would be positive.

All the portfolio shares we know something about have held their value or increased it since September 2023. Even Graphcore , the most vulnerable of the lot, will credibly be valued at least what we have it on the books for due to negotiations on a sale.

The 55m cash injection in second half at about 1/3rd nav means we need over 35m net uplift in NAV to break even against half yearly results. If we are to achieve a slight increase in NAV/share over the year we will need net nav increases of over 100m as we had a 72m loss in first half.

I’ve given up on guessing valuations. They seem so subjective and only really accurate in the long run when late rounds and IPO’s review true values with real money.

I do think GROW have been conservative on valuations and they are more or less what we would get if the portfolio was liquidated in current market conditions in an orderly (not a fire sale so at least 12 months to wind down positions) sale. NO justification for extreme discount we have now unless further NAV/share losses iin the books and I don’t think so.

I’ll confidently predict no new losses (taking into account the dilution) and some NAV/share increase (taking into account dilution). How much of a net increase is uncertain. Could be circa 100m using credible comparables and our organic sales growth within portfolio helping reduce multiples of sales needed for current valuations.

Seed funds we own have held values nicely. We were even able to cash out a bit of seed so those valuations real money.