Member Info for steph

Annoying our inability to get decisively beyond 4.

I suspect as half year update approaches the buy forces will overwhelm the sells.

The policy announced is to allocate 10% of cash realizations for buyback and they have had near 100m cash realizations recently so that is another 10m buy back.

The dilution effect of the 55m fundraising at just over 1/3rd nav requires about 35 m of buybacks to extinguish. SO a substantial start.

If Black rock decides to trim their 12% holding 10 m buybacks are not enough. Blackrock seem to be an unreliable boyfriend. Even as they maintain a long term hold on the core of their holding they seem to jump in and out at the margins exacerbating volatility.

Anyhow of course any major institutional investor taking profit can cause this to dip but conversely any major institutional investor building a holding can make this jump.

All the big investors can buy the underlying assets directly if they time it right so they will tend to trim if we are 30% or more above NAV/share unless they are expecting next round prices to be much improved on what nav is on the books here for.

No idea why any investor would trim now. We are about to start reporting nav/share increases from what I think is a very low and credible base based on 20% plus organic growth. We don’t need a return to good market conditions on IPO’s and late rounds to do that. That would just be a bonus that will supercharge sp increases from here.

Holding above 4 in a choppy market.

For my money I think a 20% discount to NAV/share (or 525) even in this market is all the discount that is justified. Thus we have quite a bit of support at 400.

We are about to get a substantial NAV/share upgrade in October and if the market accepts it is the first of a regular series again (based on organic growth from a sufficiently discounted NAV base) then the justification of a discount (even zero) disappears entirely.

That is all assuming the same dire market for late rounds and IPO’s continues. If that shows signs of life (and with dropping interest rates it probably will) then the sp push up will be near vertical.

Extract from todays Times Business section-"Joachim Klement, a strategist at Panmure Liberum said the M-Files exit crystallised "profits from an excellent investment". Together with Riverlane's funding, Klement believes it shows Molten's share price is "significantly undervaluing" its underlying investments. Its shares rose 18p, or 4.9 per cent, to 386½p in London."

Https://files.pitchbook.com/website/files/pdf/Q3_2024_PitchBook_Analyst_Note_VC_Returns_by_Series_Part_IV.pdf

We cvan see the complete history of Berenberg sp targets in broker ratings on this blog. It’s the only one listed for several years.

Clearly Berenburg overstated the sp 12 month potential as the sp deflated. However I think they have undershot this time. The 1,300 sp target 11 July 2022 assumed a 30% plus premium to NAV/share in spite of indications the market was “frothy”.

The recent 5.80 sp target assumes a significant discount to current NAV/share in spite of indications that NAV/share will start increasing again and probably pretty sharply.

For my money I think once our NAV/share starts rising again at it’s long term average of 15% to 20% per annum any discount to NAV/share wil be minor or disappear entirely. We do not need a major market recovery for NAV/share to increase by 15% to 20% per year so long as you trust that the NAV/share is accurate for current market conditions. ALl indicators say it is.

If market conditions for late rounds and IPO’s improves significantly NAV/share wil go up much faster than 15% to 20% and with that the Berenburg tarket of 5.80 will be exceeded within the year by a large margin. The GROW portfolio has had a historically low % of core portfolio companies that have gone under in spite of market conditions. None of the top 15 have gone under. Even Graphcore returned what GROW put in.

Organic growth of over 50% sales per annum and runways looking healthy for 80% of portfolio we are well positioned for a market recovery and explosive sp growth.

I expect an sp of around 8 quid by May 2025 year end results and maybe 12 quid again by May 2027 yer end results. I expect bernburgs’ sp target to be realized early on half yearly results in October 2024.

Of course more war or a market crash can delay that but a lot of bad news is priced in so there is an upside scenario on the macro front as well.

Isolationist Republicans wil slow the US and world economy somewhat with tariffs and picking fights with China. However our sector (EU

We are a chat

Even small buys or sells indicate our opinion better than words. none of us big enough to move the SP much .

I thin we are in for a very good 2.5 years after 2.5 very bad years.

2/3rds of nav/share in short term and more as October update nears and we appear to be on track for sustainable nav/share increases again in the order of 20% per annum. i expect 8 plus by june 2025 results

33%,discount is plenty based on current conditions

I recall policy to use 10% of realisations to fund share purchase so a double boost.

Well on their way to show nav/share increasing again and with that any steep discount to nav/share disappearing fast.

Appears our NAV/share should be growing again even in current market conditions.

Once market accepts that deep discount to NAV/share will disappear very quickly.

No idea why dip from 4.2. Just profit taking on light trading.

Valuations are in recovery and total deal value is at an eight-quarter high, hitting $55.6 billion, according to the Q2 2024 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor released Thursday. At the time of writing, our European edition of the report has not yet been released; however, the Q1 2024 European Venture Report showed similar signs of recovery.

Https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jul/03/labour-landslide-may-boost-investment-and-confidence-in-uk-say-city-analysts?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Https://d3s3shtvds09gm.cloudfront.net/d00d14750acb27fb15adc3bea8a79579.pdf

Black rock has been trimming holding which is probably the reason for recent tetrace.

Https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/softbank-offers-400-million-for-ai-startup-graphcore-says-report/

Https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jul/02/revolut-record-profits-ipo-uk-licence?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Good news ken

my break even is 5 but never-the less keen on grow as a long term hold.

so rebalancing at present to 2/3rds nav/share but will have another sharp leg up as soon as nav/share itself shows solid evidence if going ip again. that might occur with a trickle of portfolio specific news or at half yearly results in October. grow does not need a general market recovery for nav/share increases, just stability.

if the market itself turns and the late round and ipo market normalise. this will truly rocket.

i will wait for that before trimming to diversify. waited a very unpleasant 2.5 years after missing diversifying when we were above 11 quid. what harm now to wait a year ir two more?

“Deutsche Bank raises Molten Ventures target to 662 (661) pence - 'buy'”

from grow news today

Barclays appear to have raised target to 660. Was very low.

Modest enough but welcome. Recognition they had it wrong.