Member Info for steph

More than belief by management. Talking openly about an unjustified discount to NAV/share means they also believe they could not be held liable for saying so. No “ramping” is allowed by FSA. They can be wrong but that must be based on reasonable facts and as they are at the heart of the valuations the evidence must support NAV/share in a way that would hold up in a court. .

Molten Ventures plc("Molten Ventures", "Molten", or the "Company")

Commencement of extended Share Repurchase Programme

Molten Ventures (LSE: GROW, Euronext Dublin: GRW), a leading venture capital firm investing in and developing high-growth digital technology businesses, announces that, beginning today, 13 March 2025, it will commence an additional share repurchase programme of up to £15m (the "Programme"), as previously announced on 12 February 2025.

The Programme goes significantly beyond the 10% of realisation proceeds previously outlined in the Capital Allocation Policy, doubling the £15m already completed as the Company remains committed to narrowing the current share price discount to asset value.

The Board will continue to monitor the share price discount to net asset value, and should that discount persist the Board will consider committing further capital to the investment opportunity that buying back shares at such wide discounts represents.

I have been buying to hold for 30 years in my ISA and buying for a 3 year return in my spread bet. Both gong badly but at least my ISA long term and will come good. Very difficult to time trading though. We had a sharp dip during COvID and. 6 month recovery. No idea how one could have timed getting out and back in in time. Current long U has baffled me in terms of when we come out. I’ve been trigger happy for 2 years expecting a V shaped dip.

While confident we will go up and complete a U shaped recovery in 2 years or so this 5 year sharp dip has dented my thesis that this is a share I can depend on to draw consistently 10% per year off in my ISA for 30 years. GROW themselves talk about 15% to 20% returns “through the cycle” which may be true but what if I need to pull money out in retirement during a 5 year long dip in the cycle? It is a “long cycle ” hold share that I need to mix with some that are less volatile even if those returns are less than GROW long term.

Also the dip is deeper than my thesis assumed. I could have tolerated the SP dipping with NAV plus an extra 30% discount to NAV/share to take into account nerves on the next report not reversing the downtrend.

Dipping to 33% of NAV/share and even now at only 40% of NAV/share -in spite of so many confirmations that NAV is solid and probably about to start rising again as soon as March 31 year end results.

I suppose it is a new asset class and the lack of valuation information basics (what value GROW hold the portfolio share at, runway lengths by core holding, sales multiples by core holding, sales growth by core holding, etc). Without info retail investors must assume the worst in a downturn. SO it is really not a good share in a bad market and liable to overshoot on the downside -as I think we are at the moment. NO way of knowing if a dip will be brief or long at the time. A sharp dip for covid reversed itself in full within 6 months. I thought that was the pattern not long U’s. Stupid me.

Yes you are right. How exciting. We exited Jan 16th 2025 at 20m, 3m above the 17m we had it on the books for September 2024.

So even the worst holding was above the holding value we have.

Even freetrade might not be doing so badly post December 2024 when it appears to have broken inot profit for the first time.

If so I can’t see (based on what public info there is) any core portfolio share that will decline in valuation when we get our results towards the end of April for the half year ending March 31 2025.

Opps, Freetrade decline not stable.

Stable does not mean no change. Just no jump up on new funding rounds. Assuming sales growth and a stable market all "stable" may go up a bit.

Only one decline and several likely to show a strong increase. Best I can do on publicly available info. Currency movement so far in our favour as well.

Thought Machine -stable

Coach Hub -stable

Aiven -stable

Ledger- stable

Form3 -fast increase

Aircall -stable

Revolut fast increase

ICEYE stable

Isar Aerospace - stable

Schuttflix- stable

HIveMQ -stable

Riverlane -stable

Finteck no info

simscale -rapid increase

Freetrade -stable

Ravenpack - strong increase

N26 -stable

Mfiles -increasing

You are correct. I filter for last week's news but some old stuff slips past as "last week". This old dog did.

Here is one dated March 7th 2025 that supports NAV calculations.

https://www.clay.com/dossier/moneybox-funding

ZURICH (Reuters) - Nestle's Purina PetCare division has acquired a majority stake in Tails.com, a British tailor-made dog food company, from venture capital group Draper Esprit, the partners said on Monday.

I've been looking at the revenue multipliers for the sector vs those GROW actually used for 2017 to the present.

There is a close correlation between when we trade at a premium to NAV/share and when the revenue multiplier GROW used is below sector averages (hidden value). This held true for the whole of the September 2017 to March 2021 period.

Conversely when GROW has used above sector averages for revenue multipliers we have traded at a discount -up to 66%. This applies for the whole of the March 2022 to September 2024 period.

However with sector norms about to rise to maybe 7.3 and GROWs' September 2024 multiple (excluding Revolut) at "only" 6.0 we may be in for a treat. Either GROW raise the multiple used or the market prices in that they can do so. either way we will get a boost.

It has always puzzled me that the big funds that have access to the company level valuations themselves (which we retail investors do not have) have behaved they way they have and allowed such large discounts to NAV/share to materialize. However, looking at this data it is logical even if an overshoot. Overshoots of a trend are rational as the big funds with the data we don't have have an incentive to let the trend run it's course before they change direction -even though they are already minded to do so. They time the market.

The dip yesterday I think will be short lived. The stars are aligning for a sustainable 3 year trend up which will be the mirror opposite of the 3 year trend down we just have had. Top up and buckle in. We are about to have a giant 5 year wide U shaped dip, bottom and recovery.

2027 report =2017 report.

Revenue multipliers to be used for valuations of the tech and tech sectors (especially our heavy weighting in enterprise tech and deep tech) are key to profit” or Loss” (NAV/share increase or decrease). NAV/share. Increase or decrease critical to SP.

I’ve been looking at valuations since 2017. We were steady on 3x revenue multipliers up to September 30 2019. IN the 2027 report it stated they were using 3x for a long time pre IPO.

Post 2016 IPO the portfolio when they raised capital in a formal round or IPO’d outperformed the conservative 3x by a factor of nearly triple. I assume this is the key reason our SP was consistently at a premium varying between 8 and 66%. There was hidden value.

The period March 31 2022 to September 2024 saw multiples used ranging from 6.0 to 8.4 combined with sharp discounts of SP to NAV/share. The market did not believe anymore in hidden value and was concerned about down valuations.

Between March 2024 and September 2024 there was a modest decline in revenue multipliers (captured in GROW’s reports as 6.6 down to 6.0. This hurt our valuations by enough to offset our strong portfolio sales growth.

However the September 30 2024 to March 2025 half year is seeing a modest rebound in revenue multipliers betwen 10% and 30%. Once the market absorbs this good news we should have very positive year end results. When GROW do the valuations for the year end results they will likely use a revenue multiple that is around 6.6 with good prospects for further improvements going forward. That 10% boost per half year plus organic sales growth should drive a substantial NAV/Share increase.

Then of course Revolut is on our books for 120m at a discounted valuation (around 30bn us rather than the 45bn the secondary sales were at). Recent news on secondary sales for Revolut suggests an appetite for a 60bn US valuation. That would be a circa 120m uplift in our NAV (about 10% for one portfolio share alone. While I expect GROW not to book all of the 60bn valuation indicators they should now accept the 45bn without a need for a 60m discount.

Yes, that’s correct. Across the U.S., EU, and UK, for sectors like General Tech, Enterprise Tech, and Deep Tech, the revenue multiples show a general trend of rebound between September 2024 and March 2025. This is due to expectations of market stabilization and investor confidence returning after a period of economic uncertainty. While the specifics vary by region and sector, the overall forecast suggests a recovery in valuations during this time.

Broadly, the expected recovery in revenue multiples between September 2024 and March 2025 is around 10-30%. This range depends on the sector and region, with more volatile sectors like Deep Tech potentially seeing higher rebounds, while General Tech and Enterprise Tech may experience more moderate recoveries. The rebound reflects expectations of market stabilization, easing economic concerns, and increasing investor confidence, but the exact percentages can vary depending on the specific industry and regional dynamics.

We will get a substantial NAV/share increase on year end results. The 60 to 120m uplift in Revolut alone will drive that. Revolut growing so fast into so many geographic and sector markets that it deserves the 90x sales valuation at 45bn, maybe more.

The multipliers we have used for valuations (6x average) are now looking lowish by benchmarks for the portfolio. Space and fintech (which we have lots of) in particular achieving much higher multiples as hot sectors. In 2016 pre IPO we also had low multipliers (3x) and when those shares went to market between 2017 and 2019 they achieved 3x our value on the books driving several years of SP premiums over NAV/share as the market started to expect that our portfolio was conservatively priced. A lot of retail tech was in that 3x which we have much less of now (burned by Cazoo).

I’ve been topping up at these levels. I think never to be repeated opportunity. We are about to get 2 or 3 really good years. Yes volatile but the direction is sharply up.

Good luck all.

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/directorpdmr-shareholding-ci2lmypdyswcr0z.html

Hard to format but all info below. Wild variation on premium or discount to NAV/share. We vary from 66% above NAV/share (30th September 2017) to 67% below (30 September 2023). For first 5 years (march 2017 to March 2022) we traded at a very substantial average premium to NAV/share (with the exception of the covid crash for 6 months).

Then for the last 3 years we have been trading at a very substantial discount to NAV/share.

We seem hypersensitive as to forward speculation as to if NAV/share rising or falling (or in the case of COVID might fall). Small anticipated falls in NAV/share cause outsized decreases in SP. The reverse may also be true.

US interest rate expectations seem to be (outside of COVID) biggest correlation. We are happy with 2.5% just not 4.5%.

Fair Value March 2017 Fair value Sept 30 2017 Fair Value march 31 2018 Fair Value Sept 31 2018 Fair Value march 31 2019 Fair Value Sept 31 2019 Fair Value march 31 2020 Fair Value Sept 31 2020 Fair Value march 31 2021 Fair Value Sept 31 2021 Fair Value march 31 2022 Fair Value Sept 31 2022 Fair Value March 2023 Fair Value Sept 31 2023 Fair Value 31 March 2024 Fair Value 32 Sept 2024

NAV/share 352 370 431 444 524 574 555 600 743 887 937 837 780 735 662 644

SP on same day 435 615 640 685 720 624 240 940 910 1006 765 303 273 243 226 404

% over or under 23.58% 66.22% 48.49% 54.28% 37.40% 8.71% -56.76% 56.67% 22.48% 13.42% -18.36% -63.80% -65.00% -66.94% -65.86% -37.27%

2026 =2016

Page 49 of interim report 2025 states that

“a significant portion …the principal exposure to change in the rate is to change in the GBP and USD/EUR.”

It does not say the weighting between the Euro and Dollar.

We had a strong currency headwind in 2025 6 month results. Looking at Dollar and Euro rates in the March 31 2024 to Sept 30 2024 period that must have been mostly dollar. It was a 5% impact for dollar and 3% for euro.

So far dollar has pound dollar rate declined sharply (5%) and euro stable. From Sept 30 2024 to now about the same as it went up relative to pound in March 31 to Sept 30 period. SO we are in for a circa 25m boost to our valuations. .

PLus we were overly conservative on our valuation of Revolut which means at least a 30m boost to NAV. We assumed the 45bn valuation would not hold but it has and may now be credibly 60bn. Revolut now stating a billion per year profit and still rapidly growing sales so may grow into that valuation. We shall see.

A windfall is due just to accept the e45bn valuation. Plus exists at or above valuation September 30 2024. Plus sector multiples of sales to valuttion going up again according to pitch book.

I can’t see how we are are going to avoid booking a substantial profit (NAv/share increase) year end. I suspect within the accounting rules they will suppress the jump in order to do a bit of smoothing going forward so we don’t have a half loss again. We had profit every half year report between launch in 2026 and March 31 2022 inclusive. That consistency is why our SP can go above NAV/share if:

1) market conditions are stable

2) Nav/share growing faster than the market.

3) large parts of our fast growing portfolio is inaccessible to retail investors in any other way.

We have not had a “profit” (nav increase) since the spectacular 37% increase for the fiscal year ending March 31 2022. Then our NAV/share was 937p. I’m convinced we will get back up there due to fast organic growth of the portfolio even if multiples of sales based valuations are never at 2022 levels again.

Anyhow good luck all.

Well we are in for a treat then

big decline in pound vs dollar since sept 30

Sang

then i suppose a strong us dollar complements our nav????