Member Info for steph

Alas

Of course I’m chastised by the drop over the last 3 years. I’m an economist and by instinct look longer term than the market volatility. Also the longer this dip lasts the worse the returns look over the cycle. Even if we recover to 11.8 by say June 2026 that is 10 years since June 17th 2016 IPO and a good (13.8 % annual return) but not spectacular return for the 2016 investors. We IPO’d at 300 and are below that now 10 years later. Catastrophic return if one cashes out in this bit of the cycle.

We need to go up past 11.8 nicely over the next 3 years to really say this sector and business model GROW has is worth the risk of the obvious volatility that is possible.

I am a big fan of investing now at this point in the cycle. Of course can dip a bit further but the upside large enough to compensate for that risk of missing the best buy in point. .

Also as we have funds like Black rock (with a lot of insider info on the trump administration) and I perfectly understand they might trim when they think bad general market news coming that is not priced in and they rebuy the position when they think that has run it’s course. That means we can dip faster than the market and reach illogical discounts to NAV/share.

This volatility and dip will delay the opening of the IPO market and with that cash realizations. For the relationship between SP and NAV/share it is hard to argue with cash even if “just” at our book values. So longer at estimates the market is clearly discounting and thus longer before the discount closes.

Good luck all.

We live in strange times.

Medium term we will go up substantially. Short term who knows. We tend to go down more than the market average when volatility high -which it certainly is now. Volatility also affects IPO market. Firms will delay IPO's until stability returns as investors will be cautious.

That said a lot of very bad news priced in. We are below our 2016 IPO price in spite of a much larger more diversified portfolio. We can go up substantially from here without a further dip. No reward without risk though. Bigger the reward the bigger, in theory, the risk level must be -or the SP would already be much higher.

Good luck all.

Buybacks pretty modest as % of daily trade.

I’m surprised at size and consistency of tariffs. In the long run good for us as our portfolio not principally exporters to USA and will be under less completion for US companies in the longer term. Also tariffs should induce a recession in USA, EU and UK which will bring down interest rates a lot -big impact on us.

There will be a spike in inflation due to tariffs but that will pass. What wil also happen is low oil prices feeding through mitigating goods inflation.

Trump an idiot but for us this is not bad news. Of course we are down with the market an down with the volatility but we are not directly medium and long run victims of these new trends.

I forgot how I calculated the 30% discount applied but it was substantial and around 30%. I recall using the press reports of the previous valuation and the uplift reported Sept 2024.

In any case whatever the discount applied it is probably not needed anymore. If Schroders can accept 48b we can now accept 45bn.

Https://investors.moltenventures.com/storage/uploads/PLC/Results-and-Reports/FY25_Interim-Report.pdf

see page 7 under portfolio

See page 7 of interim report. molten did not book the full uplift of the implied revolut valuation. somehow i calculated the discount applied at 30% or around 50m. that discount is now unnecessary. so we should see that uplift in our year end results.

We have it on our books for a lot less than the implied 45bn valuation. i recall around 30 bn. nice uplift due

Https://sifted.eu/articles/revolut-valuation-schroders

if we follow a 50m upgrade in our nav

Https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/mar/30/first-orbital-rocket-launched-europe-crashes-launch-spectrum?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Thanks sang. I hope it is factored in a NAV/share increase. Currency movements still favorable from September 30 2024 but not strongly enough to make up for March 31 2024 to Sept 30 2024 adverse movement. Never say never with Trump though. At a rate of 60,000 shares a day GROW purchases will not be fast enough to deploy the whole 15m by March 31 2025.

Unaudited results between 23 and 28 of April historically. Patience.

Monday we get to see the final currency movements. Strong euro to pound from 6 months ago good. Weak dollar to pound good.

Better than Revolut executives who sold in recent secondary.

All lights green for a substantial SP lift off over the next 2 years -except for some volatility globally that in the short run hurts us but in the medium run lowers interest rates which massively helps us.

On Revolut upshot is the 45bn secondary sale validation of it’s NAV looks very solid yet we discounted that for safety to around 30bn and there is, thus, about 50m of total portfolio NAV undercounting on our books -enough to lift us well into profit for the half year on it’s own. Offers of further secondary sales at the 60bn level just harden up the validity of the 45bn round.

I’ve been buying on borrowed money. Of course Trump and war volatility about but the upside so attractive maybe worth the risk. Never a perfect time without a crystal ball.

This share traded at a premium to NAV/share from March 2017 results all the way up to September 2021 (with the 6 month exception of March 2020 in the peak of the covid scare). Thus for those “premium” results the share price was on average 36% above NAV/share.

We fell into a discount of NAV/share from March 2022 onwards. The discount has averaged 49% over 7 half's. The reason for the discount is a steady fall in NAV/share from a high of 937 march 2022 to 646 in September 2024.

If we are about to see NAV/share rising again and it is consistent half year on half year the discount will disappear precisely as NAV/share starts to go up as well. It will be a steep SP climb.

It will take time for a premium of 36% over NAV/share to ever be achieved again but markets switch mood faster than logic dictates -especially for a share where the real value is hard to get at due to little information.

For what it’s worth I think we will climb back to 937 /nav per share pretty quickly (2 years max) and with that we will get an SP over 10 quid or more.

Could be more spectacular than that. A lot of good firms in core portfolio and no duds to bring down the average. If IPO and late round market recovers we have a lot of hidden value that will become transparent and NAV/share upgrades might be pretty sharp. Could easily see NAV/share go over 12 quid within 2 years (June 2027) and with that the SP would probably be at a modest premium of NAV/share of 10 to 20%.

We will get a NAV/share upgrade on results this year. Question is how much. Depends very much on the multiplier of sales used and there is quite a bit of subjectivity on what multiplier to use. We do not rigidly use sector averages. We seem to be weighted by maturity, size and other factors. Even hard money in secondaries do not result in like for like upgrades in our NAV. GROW have been applying discounts to all hard money valuations. Makes sense in a falling market but if the market turns it will look overly cautious. A lot of hidden value I think.

Multiplier has been decreasing half year to half year from march 2023 onwards. That is the main reason our NAV/share has gone down from a high of 937 March 2022 to 646 September 2024.

I’m all in. Wish me luck. I admit the volatility is unsettling.

These will be roughly 30m in our favor for the 6 months Sept 30 2024 to March 31 2025. This will completely offset the 30m against use for the period March 31 2024 to September 30 2024.

Dollar Pound was 125 March 31 2024, 134 September 30 2024 and is heading for 129 March 31 2025. The big change to a stronger dollar in the first half (debt tends to be denominated in dollars) did the damage and that is largely reversed.

Euro pound was 116.9 March 31 2024, 119.8 September 30 2024 and 119.0 March 22 2025. The change from 116 to 119 hurt us a Eu valuations are in euros and a weak euro depresses UK total GROW results. The 119.0 is moderately in our favour for the last half.

I can’t see anything that might give us a dip in NAV/share. Multiples of sales to ANV are strengthening again according ot PItchbook. Revolut flying.

GROW multipliers applied were 7.8 in March 2022, 7.2 in September 2002, 8.4 in March 2023, 7.4 in September 2023, 6.6 in March 2024, 6.0 in September 2024.

While deeply hidden in our technical notes the multiplier is the biggest determinant of our NAV/share in a period where there are few funding rounds or IPO’s to determine value. Pre crash NAV calculated by multiples was only 11/3rd of portfolio.

Pitchbook data might support a big uplift in multiples. Certainly we have stability or better. Even a modest increase creates a large NAV/share increase for us.

Https://brandfinance.com/press-releases/challenger-banks-among-the-fastest-growing-bank-brands-in-the-world

We are very sensitive to Revolut’s valuation as it is already 124m on our books. I’m expecting we will upgrade that to around 160m due to secondary share sale valuations supporting a 45bn valuation, maybe more. .

Https://www.rocketlaunch.live/launch/spectrum-demo-flight

We can watch the live launch, subject to weather, today.

ISAR is on our books for 23m but this will likely “go up” if launch successful.

We are space investors.

Https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/wiz-google-acquisition-record-growth

It will all come good soon. I also was surprised at GROW slowing their share purchase from 50,000 shares a day to a lot less. No idea why.

Sang

Just anouther example of solid portfolio valuations.

Interesting the large discount and strategy of Seraphim Space fund to buy back it’s own shares. OUr tiny retail wrapped unlisted innovation sector seems to have a similar discount problem and a similar reaction “nothing better value than buying our own shares at this large discount”. Indeed why buy the asset itself at full price (however much the preference shares element) when one can buy the asset at over a 50% discount by buying one’s own shares.