Member Info for steph

Contend:

All good. Our 3 core companies in space should all do well as duel use civilian military. mana drones might also have a military use but so far they are taking the high road.

Drift/surge potatoes potatos.

More times than not high volumes appearing during a dip indicates the seller is about to clear and we will drift up afterwards shortly.

I’m an economist and only good for long term analysis so my musings on daily SP movement just that -musings.

Jim quite right.

Of course I expect this to go up substantially over the next 3 years so dips down “feel” illegitimate” while shoots up “feel” like logical rebalancing.

When we shot up post covid dip it was pretty steady. However when we went down post 11.82 peak it was pretty choppy. Lots of dead cat bounces.

SO maybe up is smoother than down. .

A 6% drop for no reason from our morning high to close is volatility that is hard to comprehend. Really annoying. My thesis was GROW by holding a diversified portfolio of illiquid long term investment tech start ups over a large underpriced (by US standards) might have the goldilocks zone of high returns and not correspondingly high volatility. Of course in theory volatility increases proportionate with expected returns.

Not so under the circumstances of a retail wrapper around the illiquid assets in a capital squeeze. The rate of failed companies within the GRWO portfolio is very low. It is not a dip because the portfolio is struggling. It is a valuation issue of relatively successful companies.

It is not as if due to high interest rates the P/E ratios of listed tech stock has dipped even though the risk free rate of return over 30 years has increased substantially.

I just think the sector and the retail wrapper around our chunk of it is misunderstood by some very smart players who could pick up shares at a discount right now. I fully support the buy back program at a discount of 50%. Best buy on the market and less risk than fresh investment in the sector itself. Let’s see a higher % of returns doing just that. 10% was a toe in the ocean. Should be near 100% until sp is 2/3rds of NAV/share with rare exceptions for portfolio companies with good businesses but running short of runway length.

We still have a seller who sells into good news on light volume. My patience is wearing thin but I am definitely a hold believing this is heading to around 12 quid within 2 years.

Https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/european-vc-returns-outpace-us-but-market-momentum-lies-across-the-pond

Https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/pes-gap-between-investments-and-exits-reaches-a-decade-high

Discount is really silly when one dives into the company detail. A panicked 2.4% retail ownership of GROW waging the tail of a very large dog that wil get up off his but at some point.

If you go to last yearly results page 51 there is a hidden nugget of info that naked trader picked up on . It calssifies teh GRWO ownerhisp % into categories.

A=0to5%, B =6 to 10%, C= 11-15% etc

If you correlate the mid range with teh fair value you do get a rough idea of the impled company valuation by GROW. Of course A too wide a range to be used.

Combine this with some published info (sometimes grows’ ownership percentage is in the public realm and alway will be at companies house.

Anyhow the upshot is some interesting observations on the valuations on our books compared to published valuations of the same firms.

It appears that several are on our books for less than the published figure. Only 2 might be above published valuations and not by much (Form 3 and Freetrade). Many are under and by substantial amounts. Revolut is easy to form a view as a lot of published info. I think we are well under.

Thought machine and avian also appear to be substantially under and I expect a revaluation upwards shortly. Coach hum, ledger, iceye, rierlane, fintechos, simscale, N26 and maybe manna all under and all candidates for an upgrade shortly.

An awful lot of tigers in the tank.

“European venture markets started 2025 on strong footing, with deal sizes and valuations climbing across most stages—especially in the venture-growth segment. UK venture-growth valuations jumped to €34.2 million, and seed-stage valuations rose 15.4% YoY.”

If our seed (500m plus) goes up with sector benchmarks than that means 75M plus profit we ahve not ahd for a few years on that part of our portfolio.

I think we are entering anouther phase same as we had March 31 to September 302019 results of the portfolio being undervalued by GROW (comong out of private ownership) and exceeding expectations as funding rounds reviled true higher values.

In that phase SP was on average over 30% above NAV/share. It was all down to a perception of hidden values. Premium was fully 66.2% Sept 2017. Incredible.

I have ICEYE on our GROW books for 500m because feb 2023 post crash that was the valuation in the funding round and GROW’s value on our books ahs not changed since March 2023 year end report. Also correlates with the published 5% to 10% range of percentage ownership (see OAK BLoke)

Whether it is 500m or 700m on our books clearly undervalued and by some margin for July 2025. I think our portfolio is going to have a lot of those that will emerge from the 2023 2025 winter with much higher valuations than they are on our books for.

In my rough calculations I have ICEye on our GRWO nav books for 500m not the published billion it is worth. That is assuming an 8.6% ownerships from a published range of 5 to 10 and the 43m value given to that in our last results. It can't be a billion on our books without breaching the lower end of the 5 to 10% ownership range. It must be less.

ANyhow clearly billion correct and maybe much more. Good example of undervalued NAV assets.

I hate this guessing at the exact % ownership and thus exact implied valuation of the portfolio companies but we are where we are. Resent big GROW investor having this data.

Thanks for oak bloke link.

I just keep looking at portfolio and implied valuations of the companies within it by GROW and it looks solid, even conservative. BIt of an unknown is the large lump of smaller companies held some 500m plus. We have very little data on that. All bought through seed or acquired funds. Seems this is valued at what was paid for it by GROW which given there were only 2 frothy years (2021 and 2022) bodes well. Much of that wll have been bought at discounted rates post 2022 and fair rates prior to 2021.

I am expecting a pivot by big funds into what I call “AI adaptation” That is the 1000’s of smaller companies who are using AI to enhance a business process. Much of our portfolio is of this nature. They do not need to IPO to realize sharp value gains. Just need to be funded or bought by the overfunded big boys. Many on our books for what was put in but have great potential.

Correction on our ownership of Revolut%. We have 0.5% at a valuation of usd 45bn. Nothing hugely innovative about Revolut, just good application of new technology out there to an existing market. N26 which is similar to Revolut got stung by German regulators and was had to limits on new customers by them which I think the market over punished them for.

Big funds including middle east sovereign wealth funds starting to move in. Many of our smaller companies will not received this big money directly but indirectly the rising tide will lift all boats.

I went through the chore of establishing grows ownership percentage agains estimates of company valuations.

For example our 3.49 % ownership of Revolut should be worth 157m (if we had no NAV/share discount) but in actuality at our current sp it is only 82m.

That implies a Revolut valuation of 23.7bn which is clearly silly. It is clearly 45 bn and rising.

Isar Aerospace our 2.2% ownership should be worth 22m but with our sp discount it is actually 11.6 which implies a company valuation of only 528 m which is silly. Actual Isar aerospace valuation is 1bn and rising.

Same story across all companies where i can get a valuation figure however approximate.

Makes some sense for the 529 m of remaining (all our smaller companies) for a discount to apply as unknown values until they get a funding round to calibrate. However for our many named companies with known company valuations that look quite solid our discount to NAV/share silly and outdated.

On at least 2/3rds of our portfolio discount not justified in any scenario (except the market is about to drop off another cliff edge).

Maybe this year….

https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/mid-market-pe-fundraising-likely-to-outpace-2024

Https://www.trustintelligence.co.uk/investor/articles/strategy-investor-valuation-is-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder-retail-jul-2025

Https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/ipo-market-why-2025-poised-resurgence-after-years-stagnation

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-15/white-house-readies-order-to-bring-private-equity-to-401-k-s