Member Info for steph

Broker Recommendation

25-Nov-25 Deutsche Buy 724.00 Reiteration

Bank of america disposed of a few.

It seems like Black Rock and B of A both at the fringes of their position buy and sell in spite of both having a large core position they want for the long term. May well not even be a human trade. Just a programmed trade to take advantage of small dips and surges.

Such stakeholders add to volatility unfortunately. I’d rater not have them given our illiquid not fully transparent asset base. Too easy to start a rumour or trade environment on momentum up or down and not facts. We were always going to go down yesterday based on general marekt retreat from risk but 1 or 2 % not 6 or 7%.

When market ready same volatility can work to our advantage but any sp below NAV/share is cheap so we are along way from that.

Https://www.thetimes.com/business/companies-markets/article/revolut-valued-at-75bn-after-share-offering-8ppsnh32z

I assume the jump form 48 to 75 will be booked in last half of this year.

Looked like a very conservative NAV calc.

1) most portfolio NAV left unchanged in spite of increased portfolio sales and sector valuation increases.

2) Weighted multiple valuations down to 5.9 from 6.7 in spite of multiples in the market generally increasing. This seems too much of a decrease to be just the effect of selling a few Revolut in the weighted average.

3) Page 43. Average weighted discount actually went up from 15% to 21%. A lot of potential valuation upgrade left on the table and then buried. Too much to just be effect of taking out a few Revolut shares in the average.

4) The upgrade to revolut booked value is 10.8% which is much less than the market accepted jump from a 45bn valuation to 75bn in the same period. I also suspect the upgrade is mearly a reduction in the discount to the 45bn valuation in March 31 2025. Revolut IPO trading on IG markets for 116bn so even 75bn a tad conservative.

Up sharply first week and down slowly back to starting point over 3 weeks.

Big volumes after hours indicate big funds trading between themselves and adjusting their portfolio %. I’ll bet Black rock is still reducing as they got trapped with too many after the merger. Black rock seems to constantly trim and add at the margins of their long term position which amplifies volatility. I hop e B of A will not do the same. Most large stakeholders do not trade up and down their position. This is new to being in the FtSE 250 and having tighter margins. I like AIM. Less volatility. We never attracted a large retail base when we were promoted to FTSE 250 and we gained some unwelcome short term speculators.

Lot of volume after hours. This has benefited us and dis benefited us in the last 3 weeks. Just big funds coming in and out. I can’t imagine we will stay at half nav/share for long. The case for a small or no discount is getting stronger by the day. I expect a sudden jump back up to 5 quid after Tuesday. Maybe more over the next few weeks.

Https://www.thetimes.com/business/companies-markets/article/europe-tech-report-atomico-lx9nsxslk

Https://files.pitchbook.com/website/files/pdf/Q3_2025_Private_Capital_Return_Barometers_20588.pdf

Nasty unexpected dip back down yo 420 on mild macro news in spite of our portfolio going from strength to strength.

detailed half year results soon will help. no justification for a steep discount to nav/share anymore. indeed no justification to any discount at all. i think we are back to 2016 to 2019 situation where portfolio booked value is lagging what it would be if we had recent funding rounds to reveal a true market value. back then we were trading at a substantial premium to booked nav/share.

broker guidance not helping. they were all slow to anticipate the dip and now are slow to anticipate the recovery.

Selling a few so that may bevwhy the minor retrace on a rising background market.

Sentiment for our sector suddenly changed last week. Sentiment was holding us back for sure not fundamentals.

I have been investing in GROW to the max ISA allowance since it was possible 2018-8+ years. I have calculated my compounded rate of return. It is 7.0 % pa annum. Slightly better than the same investments in to the FTSE 100 (6.1% but less than SP500 (8.5%) and NASDAC (13%) woudl ahve been. SO no reward in line with economic theory for holding a relatively risky asset class.

However the show has not needed and 8 years may not be the full cycle. I think we are in for a few years where EU and UK tech will outperfom the USA indexes and funds. SO hold onto your seat belts.

.

By Andrea Gaini, Private Equity Reporter

PE exits in Europe's financial services sector have reached an all-time high in 2025, as firms can finally offload long-held assets amid improving market conditions.

According to PitchBook data, 77 exits have closed this year, worth €31.3 billion. The sector is on track for its strongest year on record for value and pace.

Thanks for the link. I too think it will be “bowl shaped”. I call it “U shaped”. We will return to 11.82 SP and not in the distant future. April 2028 or earlier. To me lookin more and more likely to be October 2027 on the half yearly results then.

Bowl shaped or U shaped is not the V shape I was expecting. I thought our recovery would be sharp like the COVID recovery, Brexit dip or the financial crash recovery. MOre fool me. I’m now older and wiser though.

I did not expect such a big jump on the unaudited half yearly results. I suppose other stars in the background market were aligning at the same time and it was just the trigger. Bods well for my 10 quid within 2 years. Indeed I think we will now see that sooner. Maybe by April preliminary results 2027.

Berenburg as analysts stupid. They hung on too long to a 1300 12 month guidance reiterating that in May 2022 just before we dropped like a stone. Now on the 23rd hours after the update they posted 580 as a reiteration which almost certainly will be exceeded now. So too slow to reduce and too slow to increase. Did they even look at revolut and ICEYE unbooked nav upgrades in the pipeline? Useless.

BIg nav/share increases related to REvolut and ICEYE to come plus their own IPO’s when we can cash out. Interesting watching IPO spread bet for Revolut which is pretty consistently 110 bn so market sentiment in favour of nav upgrades related to REvolut beyond the immediate 75bn valuation.

“Highlights:

NAV per share (unaudited), expected to be up 7.2% to circa 719p (30 September 2024: 646p, 31 March 2025: 671p) with the share buyback programme contributing 13p to the uplift since 31 March 2025.”

They appear to have left recent moves of ICEYE, REVOLUT and ISAR on the table for the next half so lots of gas left in the tank. I think these results ignore currency moves in our favour that might be booked later. The market seems to largely ignore these half yearly unaudited updates but looking good. Indeed market only really takes seriously year end results. Arbitrage opportunity for us GROW nurds who follow the company detail.

Https://www.eu.vc/p/europe-didnt-get-the-memo-and-thats

Seems that given EU/UK valuations in the early stages of a tech start up are lower and when they IPO that can do that stateside there is an arbitrage opportunity we will benefit from. Localization at the start and internationalization at the end.

Https://www.trustintelligence.co.uk/investor/articles/fund-research-investor-molten-ventures-retail-jul-2025

I am an advocate of the thesis that we are about to enter a long period of very low inflation or deflation. With that interest rates must drop and assets like GROW will surge as investors are forced to chase yield. Plus I do think GROW are in the right sector and asset class (above average returns over the cycle compared to listed assets) and have (at least recently) chosen wisely on the stock picks.

Lots of canaries in the mine such as inflation in Japan and now China. Energy costs which caused the recent spike in inflation about to reverse themselves big time.

Lowest price in the world for solar now 1.0 c kwh and falling. Lowest price in the world for wind now 1.5c/kwh and falling. Expressed as the energy equivalent of a refined barrel of oil that is equivalent to 12 and 20 dollars a refined barrel. Spain already benefiting from this equation as wind and solar drop average energy prices some 30% from where they would have been based on oil and gas (plus Spain’s existing hydro and nuclear). Plus as mentioned we are about to get a glut of oil on the market.

Despite fears of a recession owing to President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies, the global economy is showing resilience, with growth indicators performing well.

Tariffs have been less severe than anticipated, with American average duties falling from an expected 28% to just over 10%, while fiscal policies continue to boost demand.

Agree that for discount to close sentiment needs to improve. Cash realizations above holding value the obvious route for a representative clutch of core portfolio.

As for general market jitters I am an economist not fortune teller. I suspect risks you list already priced in as well telegraphed. Risks to look out most for are those underreported. Worst of all is the classic Joseph Kennedy observation that when even the elevator boy is giving stock tips time to get out. Except for crypto (now influencers not elevator boys) we don’t really have that.

One big upside event is oil and energy prices. Inflation in all G7 surged on high price oil post COVID after lows under 20 dollars/barrel. Not only is that one off increase now history but energy prices (particularly crude oil) are set to fall further and perhaps sharply. Very deflationary which will trigger much lower interest rates. Vast pool of unsold oil in tankers and OPEC increasing production further. Chinese have mopped up surplus and storage full. Any ceasefire for sanctions relief deal on Ukraine will add to surplus. I suspect oil will test 30 soon and I may short a bit.