Member Info for steph

Agree that for discount to close sentiment needs to improve. Cash realizations above holding value the obvious route for a representative clutch of core portfolio.

As for general market jitters I am an economist not fortune teller. I suspect risks you list already priced in as well telegraphed. Risks to look out most for are those underreported. Worst of all is the classic Joseph Kennedy observation that when even the elevator boy is giving stock tips time to get out. Except for crypto (now influencers not elevator boys) we don’t really have that.

One big upside event is oil and energy prices. Inflation in all G7 surged on high price oil post COVID after lows under 20 dollars/barrel. Not only is that one off increase now history but energy prices (particularly crude oil) are set to fall further and perhaps sharply. Very deflationary which will trigger much lower interest rates. Vast pool of unsold oil in tankers and OPEC increasing production further. Chinese have mopped up surplus and storage full. Any ceasefire for sanctions relief deal on Ukraine will add to surplus. I suspect oil will test 30 soon and I may short a bit.

With preliminary unaudited half year results due this Thursday should be a good week -unless the world market blows up (not a remote possibility given Trump at the helm and trade wars all over the place).

I’ve looked and looked at the core portfolio. Can’t find one where significant losses likely. Revolut and ICEYE obviously heading to much higher valuations but maybe not in time to book that by Sept 30th 2025 cut off. Even N26 seems to have turned a corner but maybe can’t be formally recognized in time for half year results. Ledger in sector that is flying. ISAr aerospace probably “heading up” but hard to quantify until a formal funding round.

Seems to me a situation not unlike 2017 to 2019. Very likely new funding rounds, secondary sales or IPO’s will reveal hidden value (rather than hidden skeletons) and thus a justification to trade above NAV/share not below. If the mood changes alongside any significant NAV/share upgrade Thursday we should really fly.

Euro up against pound by about 3% between March 31 and September 30 2025 which flatters Grow NAV as all EU assets converted into pounds for results.

Dollar down agains pound and euro between March and September by about 6%. This helps as debt tends to be in dollars.

Is N26 profitable?

In October 2024, N26 projected €440 million in revenue for fiscal year 2024, representing a 40% increase from the prior year. It also reported its first-ever quarterly profit for Q3 2024, with €2.8 million of net operating income for that quarter, after years of losses.Jul 24, 2025

But maybe not in time to book all or part of those upgrades in our half year results cut off date September 30th 2025. That would have the tendency to rear load a big NAV/share upgrade to the second half. revolut and ICE on their own will jump NAV/share to circa 8 quid. The rest of the portfolio should have net increases now -although more modest. ICeye and revolut in the tank might encourage beancounters to be a tad less conservative on the rest of portfolio. At there moment there are a lot of discounts on last round that are probably becoming unnecessary as the market recovers and sales growth raised valuations organically. True any last round dated 2021 will have been high but conservative booking plus 4 years sales growth at 50% or so per annum does a lot of backfilling.

October 17, 2025 at 8:20 PM GMT+3

Updated on October 18, 2025

Revolut Ltd. and its backers are nearing the end of a $3 billion fundraising spree that values the company at $75 billion.

The company has begun informing investors about the allocation of shares they’ll receive as part of the oversubscribed funding round.

Revolut will use the fresh funds to enter dozens of new markets in the coming years and has pledged to invest $13 billion to amass 100 million customers around the world.

Revolut Ltd. and its backers are nearing the end of a $3 billion fundraising spree that values the London-based fintech behemoth at $75 billion.

The company has begun informing investors about the allocation of shares they’ll receive as part of the oversubscribed funding round, according to people familiar with the matter. Revolut ultimately managed the fundraising on its own, without the help of its typical coterie of bankers, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing non-public information.

We traded at a premium to NAV/share between March 31 2017 and Sept 30 2021 (with a short dip March 31 2020 due to scare). We have now traded as a discount ever since. The reason we traded at a premium was that realizations and funding rounds were constantly achieved above what was on our books. Conservative valuations and lagging booked value.

That will happen again if we start exceeding on realizations the value on our books. ICEYE an obvious example.

Below is the NAV/share, SP on same day (last day of half year) and month and year of both.

352, 435, March 31 2017 (first results post going public)

370, 615, Sept 30 2017

431, 640, March 2018

444, 684, Sept 2018

524, 720, March 2019

574, 624 Sept 2019

555, 240 March 2020 (COVID scare)

600, 940, Sept 2020

743, 910, March 2021

887, 1006, Sept 2021

937, 765 March 2022

837, 303, Sept 2022 (first NAV/share downgrade)

780, 273 March 2023 (second NAV/share downgrade)

735, 243 Sept 2023 (third NAV/share downgrade)

662, 226 March 2024 (forth NAV/share downgrade)

646, 404 Sept 2024 (fifth NAV/share downgrade but slowing)

671, 256, March 2025 (small NAV/share increase)

???, 386, Sept 30 2025 (possible substantial NAV/share increase)

Tech

I agree that Molten err on the conservative side on NAV. It was cute when we traded above NAV/share but not so cute now.

High volume yesterday. We held our own on a bad day for the sector so someone is building a stake an buying on the small dips.

NAV upgrades for revolut and ICEYE alone (when they are booked) enough to give us a massive boost in NAV/share. Even if not booked this half I would hope it would give the beancounters the confidence to mark up some assets by applying slightly higher multiples of sales in line with the general sector.

Money pivoting into unlisted tech after the boom in the magnificent 7. Pension funds, middle east sovereign funds and the like. We will get a biblical 3 years of plenty after a biblical drought of 3 years (high of 11.82 down to a low of 2.10). We have had only a small dilution (stupid and that drained a lot of confidence) now partly made up by buying own shares. A historically very low % of companies in core going under. Indeed zero. Sales growth rates in core (excluding REVOLUT which is an outlier) still above 30% + indicating rapidly escalating value so long as multiples are stable or improving. Whole thing ready to blow. A regular pace of funding rounds for most of core when that returns will boost sales growth by injecting CAPEX and crystalize values at higher NAV than they are on our books for.

I agree the sp has not reflected fundamentals and us tiny retail investors not enough to make up for even a few % of institutional exits perhaps driven by algorithms and not share specific analysis.

If NAv about to sustainably increase year on year by 15% to 20% or more discount to NAV/share about to evaporate as well. I suspect we will have a catch up surge in NAV/share for a bit making up in whole or in part for the last 3 years. A lot of unrecognized value in portfolio such as ICEYE which may be at 5x what it is on our books for.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Strong forward pipeline for realizations, with a maturing core portfolio (including near-term IPO/acquisition candidates like Revolut, Ledger, Aircall, Typeform, and Soldo), suggests significant cash generation and uplift in net asset value (NAV) and earnings is likely as more exits crystallize over the next 2-4 years.

Exposure to high-growth technology themes (AI, cloud, digital health, quantum, crypto, space tech), combined with early entry into winners, positions Molten to benefit from the continued acceleration of global digital transformation-fueling future portfolio growth, NAV uplift, and higher realized returns.

Robust availability of dry powder (cash, undrawn credit facility, and third-party AUM), plus discipline in capital allocation and ongoing efforts to build larger capital pools, enhance Molten's ability to capitalize on new opportunities, drive AUM growth, and increase future management/advisory fee revenue.

Growing depth and scale of the European technology ecosystem, combined with Molten's platform model (investment, operational support, and proprietary deal flow), should expand deal flow and support consistent long-term growth in investment deployment, valued unrealized gains, and exit opportunities.

Expanding secondary market activities (easier liquidity for late-stage private assets and ability to monetize investments within 2-3 years) offer flexibility in portfolio management, contribute to NAV realization, and provide more consistent cash flow to support buybacks and earnings growth.

Https://urlsand.esvalabs.com/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ffiles.pitchbook.com%2Fwebsite%2Ffiles%2Fpdf%2FQ3_2025_US_PE_Breakdown.pdf&e=ccd5b258&h=29b9e941&f=y&p=y

I have Iceye on Molton books at a 500m valuation so 2.5bn valuation is a 500% increase. I have Molten’s share of that on our books for 43 m as of March 31 2025. So 5x is over 160m “profit”.

A few more like that and we will be have our mojo back and chasing our 2021 high again.

Contend,

thanks, good news. i expect that whole sector will “fly” for a few years.

If that’s the worst that we have then not a bad result. At least they’ve extended their runway and in with the chance of being a success.

Https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/has-european-vc-fundraising-already-hit-rock-bottom

We are very sensitive to interest rates especially USA.

FOr what it’s worth I think the US inflation due to tariffs is a one off and the inflation rates in USA will be sharply down as the ecnomy contracts due to Trump errors.

HIgh tariffs has a theoretical long term positive effect of on-shoring economic activity but a short term impact of contracting the economy as internal supply chains dependent on imparted material and parts slow down. Indeed even at the consumer end consumption will go down when cheep entirely imported goods disappear and there will be a lag in willingness to pay a more expensive price for the alternatives.

Once job losses kick in anxiety goes up and consumer spending goes down including most still in work. Consumer confidence still high because a lot of US residents believe the Trump propaganda that things are about to get better. Of course Trump has no short term strategy to achieve that but a lot of what he is doing disrupts the economy. Even firing federal employees depresses the GDP by the amount of wages of those cut plus their onwards spending. There is a military stimulus but because that is so concentrated few will feel the benefits. Tax cuts are stimulus but most of that is rolling over the existing tax cuts so we will not see a statistical uplift on that portion of what is labelled tax cuts. US in same position as most g7. Can’t cut much tax as near limit of borrowing.

Trump talks a good talk and this has lifted mood but that will collapse when ther reality sinks in that he has no silver bullet on the economy.

When that happens and US unemployment starts to sharply rise and GDP slows or reversed interest rates will enter a new era of low for a multi year period. Also rebalancing between EU and USA markets will continue favoring GROW’s backyard. Also a tickle down effect of Magnificent 7 gains and further upstream on the innovation pipeline will benefit GROW portfolio.

We are about the enter multiple year period where will will substantially outperform the 20% log term average growth that has always been GROW targets. If one measures NAV/share it has gone up only about 6.5% since 2016 which is ridiculous for a risky illiquid sector such as unlisted tech. Either our management has made some catastrophically bad stock picking decisions consistently or we are about to come out of a 3 year dip in a long term cycle that is beyond their control.

I’m voting for 3 year dip in a long term trend to deliver 15% to 20% NAV/share growth over the cycle. So some plus 30% NAV/share growth about to happen soon and when it does we will likely trade at a premium to NAV/share as we did in the 2016 to 2020 period. So SP growth will be faster than NAV/share growth.

Https://appointments.thetimes.com/jobs/ai-engineer-infrastructure-city-of-london-london/2371622433-2/

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-26/klarna-klar-slump-drives-stock-below-ipo-price-amid-fintech-selloff

Wild though from 348 to 386

Nobey =body