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It would make sense to do something more than they are doing now, RNS'ing to say they've bought a couple of hundred k shares is just a waste of money and has apparently had the opposite effect on the SP, I appreciate oil is lower as well but that will swing round soon enough. I honestly thought they were going to go for it with the buyback.
Any more details on the Golden Eagle sale?
What I don't understand is....why don't ML just sit on the bid all day long, adjusting up or down, as necessary. Hoovering up all sells until they've acquired 74m shares (or there abouts) .
Maybe VoiceOfReason will know ?
Tigar, I’m vaguely aware of two restrictions on buybacks. Sek referred to one relating to SP increase over a period (5 days?), I remember this was called out on HBR when their program was interrupted, and I recall a rule which requires an independent purchase at a higher price ahead of the buyout order, but I've no idea how it operates in practice. (Looking at the chart it’s possible the first rule kicked in yesterday)
I can't imagine a trader is staring at the screen, with finger over a buy button, waiting for the right conditions to occur - I'd guess an algo is at play, following the rules, with limits set.
Or perhaps algos are the modern-day equivalent of an 80's super model and don't get out of their box for less than $15m.
Or the trader has just had their ar*e kicked for forgetting to plug the algo in yesterday.
Whichever, I think we can agree that buybacks will weigh to the upside. From the limited number of buybacks I've observed they do tend to start off slow and increase volumes later. As an engineer I can imagine an algo being tuned to the market to maintain orderly transactions and given its head over time.
Bottom line interest here will/should fade in this activity.
Londoner7
I stand corrected, they must just be keeping us guessing.
Good point M - however there is definite change in narrative and we are much more oil and UK based than HBR whilst ITH are Israeli owned which might make investors nervous. If we get the deal we want, which is the Bressay green light, then the price will rocket as the ingredient that has been missing will have returned. That ingredient is GROWTH. The same stuff that fuelled Tesla and tech stocks. As in everything timing is crucial. I am more positive than ever and happy to wait until the AGM which is only 20 working days away (deal makers work weekends and all hours). We have a good base for a steady rise anyway.
*Looks like your politicians don't fully trust the French: https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/05/02/belgium-demands-probe-into-massive-french-power-export-curbs/#more-73125
It did cross my mind. Always gossip about but the buyback is pretty run-of-the-mill for ML. Just give the order to the trading desk to buy up to $15mio within a certain period.
ML isn't a name that jumps at me in O&G but then what do I know? It makes sense to distance it from other stuff that may be going on.
If a deal of consequence is going on then it will be bunkered. It'll have a code name and a short list of people with full knowledge. It is possible that Craig Baxter is unaware but he isn't deaf or blind. Sometimes it is better not to know as you cannot then be accused of leaking or damaging a deal. Within banks there are always people sniffing but jobs are at risk and consequences if you break confidences or an NDA.
At Citibank leakage was their own sales desk who always wanted to know the dealer's interests and would blab to their clients.
Good morning, Romaron, looking at HBR's and ITH's needles i think it is wiser to write " a deal might" instead of "a deal will". Hi Dumbly, a very well written article indeed, you might find some more inspiration in the other EnergyVoice article :
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/552748/oil-and-gas-seen-as-devil-incarnate-complains-north-sea-dealmaker/
Morning R, If a deal is in the pipeline would ML know about it ? Or would that be classed as inside information specially if they know the price could jump on the news
"The Company will announce any market repurchases of Ordinary Shares no later than 7.30 a.m. on the business day following the calendar day on which the repurchase occurred."
They have until 5.30 today to declare any purchases yesterday so who knows how to play the game.
KO - ML won't want to be too predictable. If they buy every day then algos will skim even more from their thin margins if more or less guaranteed. I think we're probably stuck in a backwater on volume trading. I'm treating the buyback as a cheap sop to the PI's. Nice to have but not changing much. Even more so when a percentage was needed for options anyway. I doubt very much that this buyback will enhance ML's bonuses. It does strengthen our stock but this isn't what will move the needle. A deal will.
ML is adding to the downward pressure on the SP. ML could have bought a fair amount yesterday between 16.2 and 16.4 but chose not to.
I think we need to stop thinking this first small offering of buybacks will return any shareholder value.
We need to wait for next year when the company is in a much better position to pay far bigger returns.
I 've noticed that British American Tobacco also is using similar terminology (Initial stage and Second stage) and different brokers for both stages....Don't ask me why. "Further to the share buyback programme announced by BAT on 18 March 2024 to buy back £1.60bn of BAT ordinary shares starting with £700mn in 2024 and with the remaining £900mn in 2025 (the "Programme"), the Company purchased 7,435,278 ordinary shares between 18 March 2024 and 30 April 2024 pursuant to an agreement with UBS AG London Branch (the "Initial Stage"). The Initial Stage of the Programme closed on 30 April 2024 and the Company today announces that it has entered into an agreement with Merrill Lynch International ("Merrill Lynch") on a non-discretionary basis, to purchase shares during the period commencing on 1 May 2024 and ending on 21 June 2024 (the "Second Stage"). Both the Initial Stage and the Second Stage form part of the Company's £700mn share buyback programme for 2024."
This situation is a reason why the “Programme” (of $15 of buybacks) could have more than just this first phase with ML until end June.
£11.9m, Skel.
Maybe ML think they can get a better price than available yesterday 🫤
No buy backs yesterday?? Come on!! £15m was a pretty low ball return to shareholders so they could at least return that with some gusto!!
Providing they actually buy stock on down days and not sit on hands otherwise we’ll keep sliding
When the share price goes up, it's great. We see those gains, and it's very pleasing. However, even when the share price takes a little dip, we shouldn't sweat it too much. Why? Because every share our company buys back, cheaper than it did the day, before means they're putting a little more value in our pockets.
So I prefer up, but not bothered when down.
At least today there should not be the buying constraint Sek referred to - buybacks not allowed at more than 5% above the average share price over the previous past 5 trading day 😂
Blimey just looked at the SP, Have ML been pushing the wrong button today ?