Member Info for romaron

Thanks Dumbly - I may be a tad ambitious in expecting a rerate in early July because the deal still has to be put before the Shareholders at an EGM some time in August. Judging by the voting at the AGM it will largely be a rubber-stamping event but I guess it will be an opportunity for some of the analysts to seek clarity.

Of course whilst this is going on the turmoil in the Labour Party continues and of course we may not know the outcome of the MoU (14-16 Aug) between the US and Iran.

July and August will be very interesting; just as it was in 1914.

The decommissioning liability tables.

Management's outlook for production through 2030.

My suspicion is that the prospectus could end up being the most detailed public document ever produced on the current economics and remaining life of EnQuest's UKCS portfolio. If that proves true, it could answer a lot of the questions shareholders have had for years about the long-term value of assets like Kraken and Magnus.

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I can already hear Stevo sharpening his pencil and oiling his abacus in anticipation. The analysts and Funds have teams waiting for this kind of information and it could trigger a big rerate. Not long to wait now.

I was talking to another EnQuest investor and he aske me when was the next operations update and as usual I didn't know and then it struck me. We will be issuing a prospectus regarding the Petronas/Carigali deal in about 2 weeks time. That will possibly provide more information than an update. I asked ChatGPT if my thinking was right. Here's their answer:

Yes, I think there is a very good chance that the prospectus will contain a much more detailed update on EnQuest's existing UK business than shareholders normally receive, although the extent may surprise people.

The reason is that a reverse takeover prospectus is not simply about the asset being acquired. The FCA and EnQuest's sponsor, Peel Hunt, have to satisfy themselves that investors can properly assess the enlarged group. That means the document typically contains extensive information on:

the existing EnQuest business;

the acquired Malaysian assets;

the pro forma enlarged company;

operational risks and opportunities across the entire portfolio.

For the UKCS assets, I would expect substantially more detail than appears in the annual report or trading updates. Potential areas include:

Production and operating performance

You could see field-by-field disclosure for assets such as:

Kraken oil field,

Magnus oil field,

Golden Eagle Area,

Sullom Voe Terminal,

including production trends, uptime, operating costs and remaining field life assumptions.

Reserve reports

The prospectus will almost certainly include an independent competent person's report covering the enlarged reserves base. That means shareholders may get:

updated 2P reserves;

reserve life indices;

decline rates;

economic assumptions used for UK fields;

perhaps more detail on contingent resources than EnQuest normally publishes.

Cash flow and economics

This is where it could become particularly interesting for existing shareholders. The document may contain:

pro forma EBITDA;

operating cash flow by region;

capex forecasts;

abandonment expenditure assumptions;

sensitivities to oil and gas prices.

Strategy for mature UK assets

Management will likely need to explain:

how long they expect UK production to remain material;

the role of the UKCS portfolio in funding Southeast Asian growth;

expected decommissioning timelines and liabilities;

whether the UK business becomes primarily a cash-generating portfolio rather than a growth engine.

That said, I would temper expectations on one point. I don't think the prospectus will suddenly reveal a major hidden growth project in the UK. The strategic message from management has increasingly been that Southeast Asia is becoming the growth platform, while the UK portfolio provides cash flow and operational expertise.

For someone following EnQuest as closely as you do, the sections I would personally turn to first are:

The competent person's reserves report.

The pro forma financial statements of the enlarged group.

The operating review of the existing UK ass

"How to manufacture a crisis

A WHO commission wants to declare climate change a “global health emergency.” Their big evidence? Rising heat deaths in Europe. But once you adjust for an aging society, the “crisis” essentially disappears.

Even more dishonestly, the report conceals that cold deaths have declined by approximately 250 times as much as heat deaths have risen." Bjorn Lomborg

This video explains it even better https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qN5zw04WxCc

Hi Papegoja, good question and we should all regularly stress test our investments. We all know who the big sellers and manipulators are and they're all foreign governments with the US and China in the vanguard. Should you stand against them? Of course, NOT in the SHORT TERM. Markets are ruled by algorithms and black boxes. It is how advertising works and if you can catch the momentum, you're on a winner. I have tried being negative recently and searched for pundits who have that view. Doomberg and Javier Blas come to mind. But I respect Jeff Currie on the "been there, seen it, done it" rule. Today I posted a video (10:02) with another veteran, Josef Schachter [JS]. He remembered the crisis in 1979-81 and so do I. I left a subsidised mortgage at a bank to go broking end of 1980. My mortgage went from 3% to 18% (base + 4%) and US Prime Lending rate later went to 21.50% so I don’t accept that governments get it right longer term. They aren’t that much better than us and spend more time influencing voters with promises than getting to root causes before abandoning failing policies to save their jobs.

The first contango and the large UT close today (buy) encourage me to stay. There has been manipulation and JS makes a good point that whilst the West does its best to deindustrialise and go Green other parts of the world will compensate and grow. For example, Johannesburg has plenty of water, but you often can’t flush the toilet or have a shower. That’s because of an energy shortfall and lack of pump power. We should send Ed there to sort out the problem.

JS also points out that US shale depletes at 20% and higher. Another investor who follows rig counts says they haven’t increased at the pace necessary to say “crisis over” whilst China continues burning coal. I could go on but the signs to me are government action that relies on too many variables and a crazy US President who struggles to think longer term.

More importantly if you sell out and EnQuest do a UK deal you could miss a 30% jump plus a further 20p increase for early implementation of OGPM (that’s what the impairment through EPL cost us). I hear that Reeves was close to sanctioning an early OGPM but then Iran happened.

Basically, I don’t think people were more stupid back then or now and history may not repeat but it certainly rhymes.

I think the market reinforces itself and passive indexation and the pathetic disregard for energy by Western governments and the Green blob have got us here. Something like 3% of the index is energy and how big is AI and data centres influence? They cannot operate without oil and 95%+ have backup diesel – even in California.

I'm staying.

I think I've just trumped you M - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5myDGGbrZM

The problem is that he probably hasn't time to view it, read it (Impact assessment) or understand it so it probably won't even reach him, let alone his boss. I cannot see Burnham coming down on the side of fossil fuels. I know someone whom was a media advisor to the GMCA. They never met Burnham (always too busy even for his team) and described the set up there as "bloated". I think in some ways he is a one band man and closer to an "influencer". The job of PM may well be beyond him. We'll soon find out if he's an appeaser to the Far Left.

The Union he is in (USDAW) is not on the frontline for supporting O&G. That's down to GMB and the two-faced Unite Union.

I'm not sure the imperative will be to refill the SPR. It was created when the US was a Net importer. There is enough slack in the system to create an argument that the US doesn't need a SPR. Of course, if there is a crisis somewhere else in the world you will have lost a "break glass in emergency" lever.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMI9raoXqWw

A valiant attempt by Claire Coutinho today but the Seventh Carbon Budget will go through by the end of this month. The Labour MPs hadn't even bothered to read the Impact Assessment and ideology (once again) trumped common-sense.

I wonder if Andy Burnham realises what a handicap to our economy the reign of the zealot has left him with? The black-hole that Labour accused the Tories of leaving pales into insignificance compared to the damage done by Ed Miliband in less than 2 years.

"Brent crude oil prompt time spread flips into contango." Javier Blas "X".

The price alone tells us there's a lot of oil sloshing about. Why would you keep emptying the SPR if there is enough. Could US midterm elections have anything to do with it or the driving season?

I'm relaxed. After previous examples of Contango smart money found a home for the excess oil in floating storage and cleaned up.

SEASCAPE ENERGY ASIA PLC will be holding the meeting Post AGM presentation tomorrow at 25th Jun 2026 at 11:30am BST.

I won't be able to watch it but there may be a reference to EnQuest.

I forgot to add that this feeds into the recent Cobas investment in Energean. Many would steer clear of a company that relies on Israel for the bulk of its production and protection. A brave call by Cobas but probably the correct one. If Iran or a proxy did attack their FPSO in the Med then Israel would immediately destroy their FPSOs. It would be a step too far by Iran and what if Israel has hinted at a "limited" nuclear retaliation should they attempt an attack. Energy Security is real and not just a boilerplate on a Government Department.

We are seeing some fresh thinking at last in O&G and Funds have started sniffing again. The UK though is an outlier in that the cult of Net Zero accuses any dissenters of apostasy and (until now) its Supreme Leader has proven untouchable.

I think this is interesting too - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gql1Y0SY-9Y

This is a crossover from the normal investment market c.97% against the Energy market 3%. That is interesting in its own right. This adds to what LTHs are thinking to hang on to their shares in EnQuest. The video is guys who generally steer clear of energy/commodities.

It is clear how important energy is and any country at risk is not going to tell their voters the truth because it will expose their incompetence. At present AI and data centres require 95% diesel back-up. People forget refineries and there is an argument for building them again in the West.

I may be wrong of course but I think it suits governments to underplay just how close we came to a worldwide recession (has it even gone away?). There aren't any real challengers to oil when cheap, dense energy is required plus of course all the other refined products. Oil is like wheat and rice. Without it many will starve.

The actions of governments are contra to all the guff coming from their news briefings. The US is most exposed and I think that presently they are acting like old Soviet planning committees. To begin with their monopolies of SPR con the public into believing their message of "keep calm and carry on".

We all know how the Soviet 5 year plans worked. Trump thinks he can do it faster and better than Stalin. The renewable lobby won't fight too hard because they think it has proven the value of solar and wind. Why interrupt your enemy when he is making mistakes?

That's my thinking too. There is also the possibility that Iran will start increasing and Russia will get a pass. I wouldn't bet on it and with Trump and friends you should never forecast and Netanyahu has the potential to act from desperation. For many Israelis this is an existential threat so he will always garner support and so will his replacement in time. Presently the market is well supplied because of behind the scenes deals. The US fears inflation more than Iran and will do all it can to keep the price of oil down. China wants low oil too for obvious reasons. The longer this continues it would suggest policymakers still see a tighter underlying market than current prices are signaling. They are terrified of removing the stabilisers. When governments try to dictate how a market operates it doesn't usually end well. People like Ed have a voice too - almost a guarantee of disaster.

But if you believe in government and cooperation then there is still no reason to buy oil if you're a speculator. Bit different if you need it to survive.

AI says: Governments rarely admit they're targeting prices directly, but if officials believe an SPR release can prevent crude from moving from, say, $80 to $100+, they have a strong incentive to use it. The debate is whether that is an appropriate use of a strategic reserve. Analysts have argued for years that the SPR's role has evolved from purely preventing physical shortages to also mitigating major price shocks.

I say: That if everything is hunky-dory why did the US need to put ~9.1 million barrels of SPR oil into the market last week, the 2nd largest weekly release ever (equal to ~1.3 million b/d). Over the last 8 weeks, the US has been releasing >1m b/d on average. Surely it is when they stop emptying the SPR that things revert to the new normal. China will need to start the engine up again soon.

In the playground it is easier to go along with the bully. Not a good idea in the longer term.

Burnham could be PM in July if no legitimate challenger throws their hat into the ring. Miliband will play his typical sinister role in the background. TBF he is good at it and is a zealot rather than a grifter but is still closer to Mandelson in "ends justifies means" and you certainly wouldn't want to be in the trenches with him; ask his brother and now Starmer. Burnham is a bit too young to get the catholic Catechism I had to chant at Junior school but distrust was inculcated into you.

He will be better prepared and armed than Starmer.

Https://subsidyclock.co.uk/about this page gives a link to a correction page. The man behind this is Richard Lyon who according to ChatGPT

A BEng in Electrical and Electronic Engineering.

An MEng in Petroleum Engineering.

An MSc in Energy Economics.

Begun his career as a pilot in the Royal Air Force.

Spent around 30 years in the oil and gas industry, working in both operational and commercial roles in countries including the UK, Norway, Azerbaijan, Congo, and Cameroon.

AND facing him in the Red corner we have Ed Miliband: research assistant, adviser, MP, minister, opposition leader, minister again.

Both have spent decades dealing with volatile hydrocarbons — Richard in oil reservoirs, Ed in the House of Commons. I know who I trust more.

Https://subsidyclock.co.uk/

They have been having problems in this area and Iran has blown hot & cold with the Jews since Iran defeated Babylon and then helped the Jews go back to Canaan around 538 BCE. That's it. My summary. How can we expect a resolution over the weekend? Oil supply is a threat but countries and self-interest keeps it flowing in various other ways. There is a feeling that "we've seen this movie before" and there is always the Great Complacency which our soon to be departed leader was a great believer in. I doubt anyone really trusts anything coming out of the ME and the MoU will struggle over the next 60 days so luckily oil isn't the only thing affecting EnQuest. Just as important are the tax losses and the possibility that UK politics and that old favourite, expediency, may return along with its brother, common-sense. Events in the ME should help us.

“Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later that debt is paid.” - from the miniseries Chernobyl

"All the claims about Net Zero from the temperature record through catastrophic warming to cheap renewables and becoming a green energy superpower are fake

Net Zero is a fib, wrapped in a falsehood inside a farrago of lies. Net Zero is peddled by tricksters, charlatans and shysters to scare the public into handing their money over to parasites sucking the lifeblood from the economy. It is time for reality to bite back, for Net Zero to be abandoned and the debt to truth to be repaid." David Turver, Eigen Values

Net Zero has earned its place in the pantheon of cults. I think we should harness the power of Dragons as in the Game of Thrones.