Member Info for romaron

Meant to write that the Iranians hair-shirts are even itchier than Ed's but also realised that Ed may not actually wear one (or Starmer for that matter) but the pained looks may be a severe case of piles. Whilst here, from The Times an interview with Neil McCulloch the CEO of Adura and ex-EnQuest who is not known for being outspoken -

"So what are we waiting for? In 2024, the UK Supreme Court issued a judgment that ruled that approval for future projects should consider emissions produced by the end use of oil and gas. In 2025, a further action in Scotland’s Court of Session applied that reasoning to the Jackdaw and Rosebank fields in the North Sea and determined that — while work on both projects could continue at the developer’s own risk and expense — they could not produce oil and gas until fresh consents were granted. "

Nice to know that Scottish judges go along with their politicians when committing self-harm.

Starmer is another renewable, Net Zero zealot? The "keep calm and carry on" speech earlier by Starmer will look good if the world is a safer, less volatile place in 3 months. Dream on! The UK hasn't taken steps for National Security for decades although the 2 Aircraft Carriers are a useful addition as long as they stay offshore and hidden. Shame they're not nuclear (can't afford it) but I'd be interested to know where we get their fuel from and where we store it?

Nothing really to add to the B/E debate but what has come out is how little oil we're producing (c.30kboepd). With the tax credit/benefits we have bigger producers must liken us to the obstinate smallholder who won't sell to enable the big property developer to get economies of scale and build a large estate/skyscraper.

There must be some argument that whatever happens these credits can only be worth more unless they want to close existing fields which they don't otherwise why keep, emphasising "tie-backs". They'll keep quoting "tie-backs" because of the flexibility and camouflage it gives them. Bit like Drax uses only renewable and waste wood (not true by-the-way). The Trade Unions also need placating because "fine words butter no parsnips" and where are the Green jobs?

There was nothing new in Starmer's speech. He seems to think the conflict will go away or end shortly. It could but to date the Iranians haven't been that accommodating and their hair-shirts are even hairier than Ed's.

I wouldn't get too excited Jeffrey. It's cat and mouse here and both parties (Trump and Iran) lie and renege. Iran have a long history of stretching out negotiations. They have a lot more time to play with than Trump. Iran's next election isn't until 2028 but if you can't wait the result is already known and the Conservatives win. They also don't trust Trump or Netanyahu. I wonder how they arrived at that conclusion?

There are a lot of twists and turns yet to come.

Could be KO but also Brent dropped overnight so that could just as likely be the reason. Our peers weren't buzzing either. I think we held up well and see this as consolidation. Let's wait and see what Trump says after his nap?

KEEP THE NORTH SEA WORKING

UNITE: DEFENDING TRADE UNION JOBS ON THE UK CONTINENTAL SHELF

FAO All Members of our Scottish Parliament

The jobs crisis engulfing the North Sea can no longer go unchecked. Under current policy up to 1000 offshore jobs could go every month over the next 3-4 years. The knock on effect to our refineries and terminals directly connected to the North Sea, all of which support thousands of local jobs in local communities, is proving equally destructive.

Offshore energy workers are clear: stop promising a “Just Transition” tomorrow while our sector is in crisis today. We are a distinct, established industry, producing the oil and gas that the UK relies on now.

We support government action to build a strong domestic manufacturing base for renewables. We support renewable power—CCUS, wind, tidal, hydrogen—and the creation of good jobs that benefit workers and communities. But these are separate industries in their own right.

Until they are properly scaled and offer comparable terms and conditions, we reject narratives that frame oil & gas as the “dirty” side of the coin, with renewables presented as the “clean” side.

THE NORTH SEA JOBS CRISIS MUST END NOW

A complex mix of fiscal and industrial policy at UK level, including the ban on new licences, are being cited as reasons for the North Sea Jobs Crisis. With no credible plan for jobs, it’s time to take a new approach that protects jobs, communities and our energy security.

We are aware the most significant powers regarding Energy Policy remain reserved to Westminster. However, we want to see our politicians at Holyrood take a clear position on protecting jobs and communities.

In particular we are looking for:

* Which political parties will back Offshore Workers and ensure that The North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) and Offshore Energy UK (OEUK) support the delivery of a No Compulsory Redundancy Pledge and associated policies via negotiation with Unite.

* Detail how parties plan to advocate for and actively pursue change to Westminster policies that are hastening the decline of the North Sea and our wider Oil & Gas industry, pushing workers and communities off a cliff edge. As a show of intent, we would expect any plans to include support for pushing ahead with the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields.

Today we are inviting you to join us in standing up for Offshore Energy Workers and tell politicians, no matter the colour of their rosette, that:

THE MEN & WOMEN WHO DO THE DIFFICULT AND OFTEN DANGEROUS WORK THAT POWERS MODERN CIVILISATION DESERVE BETTER

----------------

Petition addressed to Scottish politicians for the upcoming elections.

"Respair" all ye who enter EnQuest. To misappropriate Dante. Respair is a rare, 16th-century English term meaning "fresh hope" or a "recovery from despair". With me so far?

It is also an anagram of "Repairs" - those who've been here a while will remember a phenomenon called "Repairer's spike". This is either a signal above or indigestion. For me it's the former.

Those not already in will hesitate. This is a last call.

"US president says UK must ‘start learning how to fight for yourself’ as secretary of war says ‘big bad Royal Navy’ should reopen Strait of Hormuz"

Just came up on my digital subscription as I logged in for the first time.

Hi Genghis - you're our first troll of summer. Bit earlier than expected but I suppose you'll put that down to Global Warming? AEP is a ragebaiter but I don't expect you to understand his or the DT's motives. I put him alongside George Monboit and they both make a decent living out of their Green zealotry. FYI I don't watch GB News but I imagine you do and for balance read Carbon Brief.

I've just paid £1 for 3 months of The Times on a trial basis. I'll let this forum know who manipulates my thoughts from there.

Why are you here. Are you an investor?

Https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/two-chinese-container-ships-transited-strait-of-hormuz-on-monday-monitor-1.500491625

I'm guessing this is the reason for the drop in Brent. It also brings it back closer to the WTI price ($9>$4). Yesterday it was more like WTI $106 and Brent $115. So we're left with SEA getting access and Europe not. Conundrum because how do you stop European without mines I suppose? How will the US respond? How will Europe respond? Freedom of the seas? What will Israel do next? What about my holiday?

Well said Profitaker. Just caught up on a weekend article in the Sunday Times that suggests BP is now a better bet than Shell because of the Iran War (BP value £90bn and Shell £195bn) even though BP has a debt pile and is still paying for Deepwater Horizon BECAUSE you have to adapt and events can swing in YOUR favour. I hope Serica investors do well. I'm not in any other O&G other than EnQuest so I am particularly biased but have held both BP & Shell in the past. BUT my bank account doesn't really care who pays me a dividend or where a profit comes from. They're the same whether its from a blue-chip or an AIM company.

I'm very happy with my position.

*Build it and they will come!

Spot on VoR. I had a cheapo digital subscription to the DT and never renewed. They wanted £269 and are now offering me a "Spring Bargain" of £25 for a year. Their prime clickbaiter is Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (AEP) who is possibly too extreme for the Guardian. I was driving this morning and had LBC on. James O'Brien is getting ever more extreme and was supporting renewables with the usual misinformation. Even Dale Vince and Greg Jackson have adjusted their opposition. Some of these commentators are so entrenched you'd have a better chance of persuading a Gooner to change his allegiance to Spurs. A more accurate name for this is ragebaiting. It does push up the internet action and followers which draws in the advertisers. Nothing cynical there?

What they're all missing is the real terror in the eyes of politicians as events unfold and continue. In the weekend Times I read that a lot of new Labour MPs come from international aid development backgrounds. Analysis of the available information on 238 of the 257 new Labour MPs (90+%)found - that 72 worked in the charitable sector, 72 were political employees, and 70 had worked in communications or lobbying. Maybe there is a toolmaker among those not analysed but I wouldn't hold your breath. Real business experience is closer to zero I'd say.

I've done most of my small lobbying and hope I've helped persuade a few of the real danger of being reliant on Renewables. Even "home grown" which they use to promote renewables because it gives Sovereignty to the UK fails the smell test when you include interconnectors. Relying on the kindness of friends can be a bit like lending money to a relative.

I went to Costco this morning. I've panicked before my wife this time. We have very little political will within Labour to accept that fossil fuels improve security and facing the enemy with roses and peace banners is puerile in the extreme. I think the Ayatollahs and Putin have already worked this out. It could get very nasty in the next few weeks.

Https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/badenoch-heading-to-aberdeen-today-with-vow-to-get-britain-drilling

There is a momentum building. What comes first? An acceptance that growth and security needs an increase in "home-grown" oil and gas or a peace deal with Iran in the Middle East?

The Labour Government hasn't got long if this map is accurate https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2038187681935401098/photo/1

11 days

I do so hope that Adura responds with the speed, urgency and importance that Ed gives to O&G permissions that have been sitting on his desk for months.

Https://substack.com/home/post/p-189692348

There is far more heat energy in a swimming pool than in a pan of boiling water. You can boil an egg in the pan. You can’t boil an egg in the pool. And if you doubled the size of the pool, you’d double the energy available — and still have a cold, raw egg.

This is the flaw in renewables. Hopefully the link works otherwise google Richard Lyon and The State of Britain. He is a former senior oil and gas operations manager with 35 years of international experience, and academic qualifications in electrical engineering and power systems, petroleum engineering, and energy economics. So clearly his knowledge and experience will be dismissed and ignored by DESNZ as a Luddite.

*Physics and thermo-dynamics don't know or care about what a Luddite is either.

Two excellent responses and the pithy response from KO says it perfectly. "My house is worthless if no one wants it."

I suppose a more accurate response is to add "until things change or the market picks up."

In one sense it already has with the reports coming out of the ME with escalation of the conflict. We'll be earning more, simple as that. I take Hunbah's point that it is paper value presently because we lack scale. BUT that also means others LACK tax asset/credits. We are a perfect partner for the right company (or companies?)

You could argue that because of low prices and shale that instead of producing shareholder value we produced these credits/benefits. Cackhanded and imperfect but you also have to add the Net Zero ideology banning fossil fuels too early. AB had to steer through these various problems and as a reward we got EPL.

There is enough in the present scenario for the Government to use it as a smoke screen to encourage growth and bring the OGPM in earlier and open new fields because things don't look like they're getting better anytime soon.

The subject is still about EnQuest Producer but now about the need to get oil pumping rather than the FPSO.

I'm trying to drag posters away from the Stevo and Sekforde hindsight gloating. Nobody has come back on my earlier post and I'm hoping Hunbah looks at it because I'm interested in the company and balance sheet that AB and his team have built up and how they'll exploit it going forward. Hunbah is not hidebound by accounting dogma imo and sees the bigger picture.

We can talk about Iran & Trump till the cows come home and it becomes Four Ale bar talk whilst the tax credits/benefits, potentially a game changer are ignored. Who cares if a company is worth £300mio or £3bio. You'll only ever own a tiny amount anyway but if the smaller investment is a multi-bagger (say X10) a doubling of the larger one would be the wrong choice.

People - we have reached dry land in these stormy seas. O&G is getting more valuable by the day as the conflict continues. I thought my mention of other NS companies tax credits/benefits might attract some attention rather than the point scoring that non-investors seem more interested in. I'm going to attempt to put some perspective on why we are the favourite to be a multi-bagger here.

We do not fit the criteria of the others mentioned for a variety of reasons so have decided to compare ourselves to just one for arguments sake, Neo Next with $3.7bn against our $3bn. Obviously I needed AI help.

While NEO NEXT+ has about $14,800 in credits per daily barrel, EnQuest has approximately $68,000+ in tax losses per daily barrel.

Result: This allows them to "shelter" their profits from standard UK Corporation Tax (30%) and the Supplementary Charge (10%) almost indefinitely.

EnQuest pumps 1 barrel of oil today and sells it for roughly $75.

The Insurance (Tax Loss): For that same barrel, they have $68,000 worth of "past losses" sitting in their account.

EnQuest ($68,000 ratio): They have a massive mountain of tax credits but only a small pipe of oil. Even if they doubled their production tomorrow, they have so many credits that they wouldn't pay standard corporation tax for a decade. They are "Over-Insured."

NEO Next ($14,800 ratio): They have a big pile of credits, but they have a huge pipe of oil. Because they pump so much, they will "use up" their insurance much faster. They are "Well-Insured" but for a shorter time.

If you have $68,000 in tax losses for every 1 barrel you produce daily, it means:

Zero Corporation Tax: You likely won't pay the standard 30% or 10% UK tax rates on those barrels for a very, very long time.

Cash is King: Instead of giving that money to the government, EnQuest can use it to pay down their debt or pay you a dividend.

EnQuest is essentially a "tax-loss powerhouse" trapped inside a small oil company. AND we are "over-insured".

*Build it and they will come!

Has it just doubled in value? Apart from that we have even bigger double-edged advantages over many of our so-called-peers in the UK.

A higher oil price for longer means the value of the tax losses and tax benefits (largest in the NS relative to our size) have leapt if the Iran situation deteriorates further in the next days and weeks. Likely imo.

And it increases the pressure for developing new fields and isolating Ed Miliband even more from the real world.

I'd say there is more chance of pressure from the British public with higher prices and fuel rationing than acceptance of weasley words from the Miliband pulpit.

SEA is pure genius as is the EP on warm stack. We have a jump on our peers in SEA. M&A is getting really interesting but possibly too volatile to close.

*I wonder if the tax benefits are another threat to the UK Treasury in the same way that decomm is pushed as far into the future as possible.

AI said this about them:

Equinor $7.6bn

Ithaca $ 4.5bnn

Neo $3.7bn

EnQuest is (to paraphrase) "in the great game now, and the great game is terrifying" but the rewards reflect this.

Stevo thanks for the compliment (clearly never met me) but I don't really do minutiae and I'm not balance sheet trained. The UK is far more important and I get that if production was 30/80 UK/SEA we'd still make more money in the UK. You'd probably come back with "No Ron, it's 26.8/73.2". I'm not complaining as I like that you challenge and are prepared to explain.

I think this argument is moot anyway as we're on the cusp of a major change imo. I cannot vouch for the UK Government reaction but a tsunami is heading our way. Earlier I saw the June and Sep spread on IG switch. I thought I'd spotted an anomaly in that the earlier date is usually higher but now it's Sep. Irrelevant to retail who prefer the earlier date imo but these things all leach back into the futures, swaps and options so I thought it indicated smart money was anticipating a higher EnQuest. This goes against declining reserves but you have to factor in dividend AND a potentially higher oil price. So I initially I thought I'd found a signal that the EnQuest price had moved to contango. I don't actually even know if that is a thing?

But I then looked again at the oil futures. I think the possibility of oil going into contango is growing every day.

The US is ruled by a President who is showing signs of mental incapacity imo and the religious lobby see the opportunity to enact their crackpot beliefs. I am now convinced that the US will put boots on the ground in Iran.

Resistance will not evaporate. We lost more soldiers in Northern Ireland than we did in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. There is a lesson there. Martyrdom is baked into Islam. Trump is a hammer and everything looks like a nail. I'm no Military historian but the US are notorious planners and I fear that the momentum has gone too far. They're going in and the Iranians will resist for much longer and harder than planned. I see Muslims from other countries joining them and the terrain is formidable. The country is basically a natural fortress.

I think we're arguing about the handrail polish as the iceberg is getting ever closer.

All too clever for me Stevo - we have 2 centres of interest. At present SEA is the one that promises growth under a stable government that hasn't forsaken O&G. The UK is a hostile environment under the present regime. Your calculations assume this won't change and the risk of very low prices is high.

The UK is the problem and we are well positioned if the fiscal position and permissions change. Staying with the SEA vibe the DESNZ is on a path of National Harakiri. The death-poem is already written (Climate Change Act) and the kaishakunin (helper) Starmer is eager to assist.

Best Stevo pops over to Serica with his sage advice and stops their CEO investing in South East Asia as of yesterday's presentation.

I don't think it has been a wasted decade for EnQuest there. And it isn't all the standard PSC's that most of us can't get our heads around. Incentives and fast payback are available. EnQuest have a decade on Serica and close contact with Petronas. Brunei is (for me) going to be transformational.

I think our involvement in SEA is both pragmatic and strategic. It is a reliable source of income in a region that still values O&G whilst at the same time gives insurance against the insanities of the present UK Government.

*Germany to look at syngas? We're working on enhanced candle technology.