Member Info for romaron

I think I've understood it. Hops are priced globally so don't affect the price of beer. What's the point of having farmers?

Sticking with the title - Simplification - Ed Miliband is Zack Polanski's doppleganger. Both intent upon "beating our swords into ploughshares."

The US is often predictable in the same way that Putin often is. The oil installations on Kharg island will not be destroyed in the same way that Russia left the Nuclear power stations alone in ground they took from Ukraine. Future value and environmental interests make this most likely the same.

Hormuz island and the strait coastline doesn't have the oil installations but is highly strategic. Easy to attack and hard to defend. Good for headlines but history suggests it carries high risk for the invader. You have a foothold, but it could turn into a Bagram airbase.

I know a little about this. My father fought at Salerno. The allies got there easily enough but were then stuck on a beachhead for 7-9 days and this was in a time when the allies were prepared to put boots on the ground. Anzio didn’t happen until 4.5 months later and the Gustav line held for another 4 months. It was trench warfare. Salerno was particularly brutal. The reason is that although the area is beautiful it is mountainous (think Sorrento) with thin strips of beach and sand leading to steep mountains. This is what awaits anyone who attacks Iran from this side.

* I visited Himare, Albania in 2024 the 80th anniversary of Operation Healing where my father was wounded. Another very hilly, mountainous spot. On a discussion forum I mentioned he had been at Anzio. I then got an email from Anthony (Tony) Rogers who was after maps of the Albanian raid. He pointed out that my father’s regiment wasn’t at Anzio. It was my mistake and I still get Anzio and Salerno mixed up. It turns out Rogers is a Military Historian and author. He was/is writing a book about the Long Range Desert Group’s activities after the surrender of the Axis forces in 1943 when they moved operations to Italy, Greece and the Balkans. I don’t think my father even knew the LRDG had landed at Himare earlier carrying out reconnaissance. I got the maps from Kew and they were still pinpoint accurate. You could fit them to google Earth like a jigsaw piece. My father didn’t get out of the army until 1947 and his last posting was with 3 Airborne in Palestine. I struggled up the mountainside of Himare and I was only carrying a water bottle. The Germans were invaders but still fought hard. The Iranians will defend their land even harder imo. They are not without leverage.

https://www.britishpathe.com/asset/82584/

|n article in DT about Rosebank by Jonathan Leake who does get good intel. He did 3 years at OEUK (2020-2023) so will have excellent contacts. Usual guff but this is a first for me:

"It is understood Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, is separately pushing for North Sea assets to be unlocked."

Bottom line is what counts. Treasury trumps DESNZ.

Tessa Khan pops up with the downer but is finding it increasingly difficult to explain why we would rather import than use our own assets. OK. the oil is sold on the International market but produces huge revenues for UK which Miliband is already tapping into to subsidise renewables. Maybe some could go to the NHS instead?

Whilst here, what is GB Energy doing?

So stop moaning Genghis.

"Imagine 2 new employees Mr Wind and Miss Solar. Miss Solar doesn’t like early starts or late nights, doesn’t work the busy shifts in the evenings, hates the winter and hardly works at all. Rainy days ditto. Mr Wind can cover some of those times but sometimes he can’t. He may show up for work when there’s no work to do and you have to turn him away but still pay his wages. He often shows up when he’s not needed, so you keep on having to tell one of your oldest most reliable employees to go home, only to have to ring them to come back in again when Mr Wind goes AWOL. You only save a bit of money on this old employee and they are getting knackered being stood down then back up again all the time. On top of all this you paid a fortune making adjustments to the workplace for Wind and Solar and it’s unclear if you’ll get your money back. Your costs have risen so much so your prices to your customers have shot up and they are not happy. You’re not happy either, because at the start you were told that Miss Solar and Mr Wind would work for free."

Not my words but could help when explaining to Politicians.

I'd like the emphasis to be away from the Iran war. Economic fundamentals to be addressed and the transition not to be so polarised. We were on the up before the US attacked Iran and this is a temporary windfall. The unintended consequences will continue to add to volatility but it has proven that fossil fuels still rule world commerce and will be essential for decades, maybe centuries, to come. Hundreds of millions could die without them as they have been the staff of life for centuries.

We're still awaiting the transformational deal or deals and pressure is on for implementation of an early OGPM. AB and the team read the runes correctly and increased our presence in SEA. The Malaysians and others are far more pragmatic and less hidebound by ideology compared to the UK. The tax credits haven't gone away either.

Cobas profit taking is understandable and I hope they got their timing wrong! Sorry Cobas.

I wish they hadn't sold but then I can't stop anyone else selling however you need to take this into account. I am not an analyst and don't keep accurate records but do take erratic snapshots of Major Shareholders and I believe Cobas is one of the more accurate reporters. The following are their reported holdings as percentages:

20/10/21 3.04

25/08/22 3.94

31/12/23 5.14

30/06/24 6.20

31/03/25 6.72

30/09/25 7.58

31/12/25 9.12

They don't look at it the same way we do as we are affected more by confirmation bias. However, I could suggest that all purchases since 31/12/23 are in profit. I can't be arsed to go through RNS's saying when they purchased (maybe AI can help?) but between 30/09/25 they picked up what they sold at around 11p. They "took a profit and cried". I added around the same time but then I have confirmation bias and I don't have to report to my shareholders (the wife). They are just behaving how any responsible long term fund should.

And of course it shows how resilient the company has become. It shrugged off a sale of 23 mio shares over the last 2 months- someone bought them. I know some of them - me, KO, BTF and M who all suffer from confirmation bias.

oh, i missed the best bit. outside the dagenham unite office there was a security guard for the first time. i missed him when i went in. i asked wayne, a big black guy who i sat next to, why were we flying the st. george's cross at half mast which i could see from the room we were using? he didn't have a clue either.

the secretary, a lifelong communist explained. a vicious and coordinated bunch of ******s had been going around dagenham & barking putting them up and were threatening to anybody who tried to remove them. council workers had been terrified of the 'hurty' words hurled at them when they tried to remove them. there were half a dozen flags around the union office but i saw no others. i said if anybody had a ladder i'd take them down myself whilst i was there. a young lad could shimmy up the lamposts/poles and do it for pocket money. they were about 4/5 metres high.

i think the real reason for the security guard is so that unite can post that their employees were under severe threat and bravely continued to work whilst the union employed a security guard for safety reasons. the guard was a skinny, middle aged asian guy who i could easily take out. a loud "boo" should do it.

outside on the way to the pub i asked wayne if he felt threatened or upset? he wasn't that interested and has lived in east london all his life. he just said that he grew up with people who had the mindset to put up "british" flags. we both know the type and even have them in our families. they are about as dangerous as graffiti to most decent and sensible people. it suits unite to leave them up imo and of course the guard is paid out of union funds.

I was thinking on this. Much as it irritates us the lies and inflated claims about renewables are having the same effect on the rest of the country - domestic and commercial. Last night's Question Time had similar claims from Lucy Powell. Nobody paid attention but the Green activists will nod along. I'd pay good money to see them debate with Dieter Helm and Kathryn Porter.

DEI, ESG, juststopoil and so on. Where are they now? Even Greta has gone into the fashion industry and scarf production. At one time Tessa Khan [Uplift] was everywhere, including Parliamentary committees, but you hardly hear of her now.

My guess is that the funding has dried up. Even Dale Vince and Greg Jackson sing a different tune.

I did my best to get attacked at the Union meeting but their heart isn't in it and they've moved back to their traditional hatred of companies that make profits from slave labour in the UK (it is still happening in their minds). Even the Green Party has taken the mental out of environmental and moved it to disarmament and breast enlargement.

Sometimes it is what you're NOT hearing that says more.

Please be aware of the potential for a weekend market gap, especially given the volatility we have seen this week in commodities.

*I think you'll be relatively safe if you're long of EnQuest.

On Tuesday I had the pleasure of speaking to the Unite Political Officer for London. My branch has this year contributed to Durham Miner's Gala, Palestinian Solidarity, Venezuela Solidarity, Marx Library etc. and the Secretary wanted to know if we could contribute to the Stop the War Coalition?

Unfortunately this wasn't officially possible although a blind eye would likely apply. The reason is that for a change Unite have taken the right stance. They represent many workers in the SW in the defence and armament industry (BAE for one) and the officer had just boasted that Unite had enabled a £1bn investment with Leonardo Helicopters.

I asked him who worked for the shadowy "Unite Investigates" that Unite use for "research". He didn't know so I told him. They are Green activists and 2 actually work for Uplift. I then asked him if he didn't see the incongruity with support for arms companies but lukewarm support for the O & G industry. Are weapons considered more acceptable than global warming?

At my branch only Miliband has any support. They hate Starmer. They love Corbyn, the Green Party and Your Party. Workers are NOT represented but maybe that is because we are all retired members but most were Unite officials in their working lives.

When it comes to a siege the Wall in Game of Thrones was pretty impressive but it was only 700 foot tall and 300 miles long. The mountains around Tehran are even more impressive and higher. They start at 2,500 feet and extend further. Going back to medieval times sieges could last years. The Siege of Calais lasted 11 months and it was a lot flatter. I doubt Trump has ever read a history book.

In The Power of Geography, Tim Marshall identifies Iran's geography—specifically the Zagros and Elburz mountains acting as a natural fortress—as fundamental to its national identity and insecurity, driving its desire to project power outward. The country acts as a "power" seeking to secure its surroundings, often through proxy, despite, or because of, its difficult, mountainous terrain.

Throw in religion and you have a powerful foe. I doubt the West will risk boots on the ground. Iran knows this.

One has to be careful of what one write about the Iran war as there is a lot of deflection and false reporting but the seriousness to the world of reduced O&G cannot be underestimated. The world still runs on fossil fuels. If the reporting is true that the US has waived sanctions on Russian oil (maybe gas too) then that would explain the telephone call between Trump & Putin.

I doubt very much if the sanctions will be put back if and when the war ends. Being without oil & gas is shown to be foolhardy and shortsighted for a major power. The UK may not be a superpower any longer but it does sit at the same table. Ignorance is NO defence. The world will have enough O&G because the major powers want that but smaller countries also want independence from them. Our O&G reserves are now being seen as Strategic National assets imo. They should be protected and developed. Maybe sanity will return to the Energy Department and the stupidity of Net Zero will prove to have been an aberration.

I can think of NO other country that would behave in the way that Hunt and Miliband have behaved. It goes beyond Party allegiance. The losers are the British public. A windfall tax when there isn't one is inexcusable and the industry has been used as a scapegoat.

The best hedge I can think of is to BUY oil but the volatility puts me off. A more sensible hedge is a diversification into an O&G company. I know EnQuest best and am happy to hold. I haven't sold a bean yet and have pencilled in 23p to top slice 3.5%

Interesting article in DT. Basically Iran has the blueprint of Vietnam to retaliate and extend the conflict. The US had overwhelming power there [Vietnam] and won every battle - but lost the war. Some extracts from the article:

"The Iranian missile and drone barrages that have hit gas, oil, water, air, shipping and tourism infrastructure across the Gulf and beyond are not “acts of scattered retaliation, the flailing lashing out of a dying regime”, says Prof Pape. Rather they are part of a deliberate strategy; “a bid to transform the stakes of a conflict by widening its scope and extending its duration”.

According to Jonny Gannon, a recently retired CIA officer, Gulf states are also spending around $28 on defence for every dollar Iran spends on its offensive arsenal.

That is why Iran’s president apologised to “neighbouring countries” on Saturday even as its missiles and drones continued to target them. The message was directed at those countries’ citizens, not to their rulers who, in Iran’s view, are betraying them."

And if this transpires M - or even some of it, the result is?

The value of our SEA assets double. The UK is forced to U turn in UK O&G production - assets treble - EnQuest with private equity goes private and buys up smaller companies and contemplates moving from a London listing to Nasdaq

The transformational deals are becoming like buses - you wait for one for ages then 3 come along at the same time. I am being flippant but anything can happen. One thing we do know is that the world need O&G and we have it in strategic basins.

*if you were Iran would you trust anything the "Great Satan" or its figurehead says or promises?

Iran have the Red Sea covered too. Their pals, the Houtis are threatening to attack ships in the Gulf of Aden if others intervene. That threatens the Suez Canal trade.

Correction: Kharg Island is in the Persian Gulf - not the Red Sea. I was only about 1200 km out but you can see how easy it would be for US/Israel to take it out. Bit of a quandary though. If they did it the price of oil would go to $150+ so they won't permanently remove it. Trump and Europe have reacted to the oil price threat but you can only do it a few times (or once). Iran still has several million potential terrorists at home and in the Middle East and that includes Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. And if you include religion then there are sizeable Shia followers in Yemen, Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

Trump needs the price of gas at the pumps lower. That needs Iranian compliance. I do hope for his sake they are accommodating. I can see Iran losing but I can't see them rolling over easily.

I know you asked Kraken but I caught most of it. She said Nothing unless you want to learn it was all the other party's fault. Labour politicians do NOT answer questions. It was the equivalent of the "No comment" response to police questioning. They cannot ignore the real world much longer.

"In a global, every-country-for-itself fragmentation of energy markets, who will feel the hurt? Let’s tour the world and assess the risks..."

Unfortunately there is an expensive paywall to go further with Doomberg but the first sentence fits the current situation.

Is what the US and Israel done the equivalent to the dropping of two atom bombs on Japan to end WW2?

There was an article in the DT that a remaining option is for US/Israel to bomb or control Kharg Island in the Red Sea which is another pinch point as 94% of Iran's crude is shipped from there. The Global economy trumps any states special interest. Iran could even decide to take it down with them. These are hard and intelligent people with religion giving them a motive and cover to remain in power.

The US is in a powerful position and to an extent the US have "won" this war. Iran has no effective Navy or Air Force and ground forces have little protection from radar etc. and a weakened ability to respond. It does have millions of potential martyrs and the self-interest of many of those who ruthlessly hang on to power. I've no idea how this ends but for me I don't see a cowed people who've given up. Yes , the US may "win" but this may yet be a Phyrric victory for the US in that it is a rallying cry for the region to resent US hegemony even more.

Yesterday's movements of oil were an aberration but could easily return.

And we ignore our oil & gas. Unconscionable. The fat lady hasn't sung yet.