Member Info for romaron

A: We’re going to choose Midland over Moscow. We’re going to choose the Marcellus over the Mullahs. We’re going to choose the Bakken over Beijing – Ron de Santis

B: We’re going to choose Norway over Aberdeen. We’re going to choose the Netherlands over Grangemouth. We’re going to choose Tower Hamlets over Scotland – Ed Miliband

It comes to something when the Lib Dems accuse you of being too woke:

"James MacCleary, the defence spokesman for the Liberal Democrats, said the government was becoming a “world leader in dither and drift”, sending a “dangerous signal of hesitation to our allies, our adversaries, and our own overstretched armed forces … You cannot defend the country with a pile of unpublished reports”.

Oh yes you can. Just ask Ed how to do it. You delegate and blame it on someone else - like Scottish judges. A supine and ineffectual PM is an essential asset and Keir is always happy to oblige.

Not as clear as that I'd say KO. We have skills and those "oh so tasty" tax credits. Bring in the OGPM early and the rising tide lifts all boats and would be an excuse to start fishing again. If there was fiscal certainty ahead we might even attract new players.

"Of course, hydraulic fracturing isn’t banned in the development of the totally insignificant amount of Geothermal energy available in the UK.

Nice virtue signalling, of course." Martin Brumby

He's not wrong.

Off Topic: I had LBC on in the background Friday and Shelagh Fogarty was on and talking about NS O&G. The first caller was a representative of the legions of renewable groups who was allowed to preach the regulatory mantra. Iris from Aberdeen who although non-expert spoke a lot of sense and a guy promoting his book with some loose connection to Liz Truss. Annoyed I was forced to phone in. I got through and was told I'd be the next caller. This is almost always a lie because they tell several people the same. After 10 minutes I put the phone down and was immediately called back. I expressed my annoyance as in the background I could hear Shelagh talking to someone about the Artemis moonshot. I held on for another 5 minutes and then put the phone down. Artemis call ran the hour down.

Points: this was a graveyard shift on a Good Friday (14:30-15:00). They float ideas at the beginning of the hour and clearly not a lot of calls were coming in which explains the nutty author taking the chance to promote his book. I see this as an indication that people just aren't that excited by Net Zero any longer. I found this encouraging and not actually a waste of my time.

*I understand more than many about how newsrooms etc work because my daughter is a regular go to in her sphere. She will often be booked for something and then "bumped" if something bigger turns up. It doesn't have to be earth-shattering and here's an example; she was due to co-host with Max Foster of CNN at an event. He couldn't make it at the last minute because the Palace had just announced that King Charles was being treated for cancer. So she did it alone whilst Max was standing outside Buckingham Palace waffling. It's always about eyeballs and stats to show the advertisers. Renewables are no longer popular as people can see that the UK is an outlier and we are paying the highest energy bills. The signs are there but only Ed can't see them. Not surprising because if he fails here then his total career will have been seen as a failure.

"unlock more tax, not less, support more jobs, not less and deliver more homegrown energy, not less”

Technically it might not reduce bills significantly but that is the same as saying reducing the import of butter won't make a huge difference to the price of a cake but the benefits help our bakers, dairy farmers and stabilise the price of a Victoria sponge. Also, I haven't seen renewables help bring down the price of energy! In fact the opposite with no abatement in sight. Sure we get the "happy hour" prices when nobody wants the electricity but that is balanced out when night falls, the sun don't shine and there is no wind. Nobody talks about hydrogen any longer and there are plenty of scandals waiting in the wings about Local Councils investments in renewables that are impoverishing rate payers.

Labour are running out of excuses.

Https://x.com/EdConwaySky/status/2039755255705911532

If 14:00 minutes is too long just watch the last 2 minutes and hope Trump hasn't seen it.

Damn you Hunbah "Enq still carries the complexity — tax structure, geography, legacy assets — but those same factors also mean the sensitivity to higher prices isn’t linear. " - that would take me 5 posts to say the same.

Something I think is important. I asked AI for more colour on the Downing Street attendees on 30 March. Usually these meetings are private and NO cameras.

The real structure of the meeting (this is the key takeaway)

This wasn’t random attendance — it was a deliberately constructed system map:

1. Supply

Shell, BP, Equinor, Centrica

2. Transport

Maersk, CMA CGM

3. Risk / underwriting

Lloyd’s

4. Capital / liquidity

HSBC, Goldman Sachs

5. Security layer

Royal Navy command

👉 That’s basically the entire oil & gas value chain under stress — in one room.

The Govt. obviously want to appear proactive,

This wasn’t just “industry engagement”.

It signals the UK government was:

Preparing for prolonged Hormuz disruption

Testing who breaks first in the chain

And figuring out:

Is this an insurance crisis? → no

A security/military escort problem? → yes

A financial contagion risk? → possibly

----

ChatGPT thinks that it is the LNG crisis worrying them most. It is amazing the lengths that Starmer will go to accommodate Miliband. My thinking is that Labour leadership still think we'll scrape through. I am not so sure. Iran might not get a second chance for a generation to continue their "Revolution" and will do everything to maximise the advantages they presently have which is the Strait of Hormuz and a natural fortress country that can withstand a siege. They would love some US soldiers on their land.

Https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/dated-brent-oil-price-actual-cargo-highest-level-2008.html

We've been watching the financial rather than the physical. "The futures price is “almost giving a false sense of security that things are not that stressed,” said Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects, in an interview with CNBC’s “The Exchange.”

“You are seeing it but the financial market is almost masking the true tightness that everywhere else is showing up,” Sen said. The price for a barrel of diesel in Europe is almost $200 per barrel right now, she said.

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Without the the SPR releases it would be even worse and they are limited for National survival and won't be available for the drive to Tesco's or picking up the kids. As for finding a plumber or a decorator?

If there isn't a quick resolution of passage through the Strait of Hormuz this will close world trade and commerce down. Now, if you were the Iranian leader how would you say your hand of cards is looking right now? They've proven they have the appetite for a drawn out medieval siege. The West (US basically) hasn't and from past experience the Iranians are very good negotiators.

I cannot believe that you can still buy EnQuest under 20p. I think Tuesday's opening price will be very interesting.

Build it and they will come!

Thanks M, great video - Norway and Canada oil stocks definitely a BUY. We have a mad ideolog controlling our energy. Our O&G industry is supposed to take orders from a failed extremist using the UK as a test-bed for his cranky theories. Surely the British public will wake up before it's too late!

Iranian Parliament Speaker Galibaf:

▪️''When I was eighteen years old, I grabbed my rifle and ran straight to the front lines to defend Iran's soil.

▪️I lost brothers who were not bound to me by blood but were like my family.

▪️Iranians don't just talk about defending their country; they shed blood for it. We have done this before, and we are ready to do it again.

▪️If you come to our home, you will find a family standing before you. Ready, armed, and standing tall. Come on, then.''

---------------------

Only words but they ring truer than what is coming out of Trump's mouth. Basically he's saying "bring it on". Didn't Britain do something similar in WW2? This debate has moved away from renewables to Defence. The next step down from Nuclear weapons are the ballistic weapons and then the more traditional - transport, tanks, ships and aircraft. They all require fossil fuels. What does Miliband know about fighting a war or defending our interests? Throw in £2 a litre petrol or rationing plus a few power cuts and his ideology is shown to be fundamentally flawed.

The Times headline "Ed Miliband to approve first major North Sea gasfield project in decade

The energy secretary is expected to give the green light to Jackdaw drilling as the Iran war and energy security fears force a shift in government policy"

I doubt very much that he'll do it gracefully and the spin will make us all giddy. And it only mentions Jackdaw which is gas.

We are so used to looking at bland paper indicators that we often miss what is happening in the physical. Contracts don't smoothly work that you buy or sell and it arrives on the due date. There will always be flexibility (within reason) for end delivery but that is passed into the chain with professional operators and contractors. Problems at ports or a jam on the motorway for example and that's before you factor in shipping costs and insurance. These happen in all industries but unless you're an expert you don't know what you're looking for.

What I do know though is that until action from the Authorities the chaos continues and you do wonder at the incompetence of the Net Zero zealots, the IPCC, the UN and the Climate Change Act. In Finance you get the Central banks acting in concert and you have the power of the IMF. You haven't got that in oil & gas because Iran is excluded from that club as is Russia to a lesser extent. The dollar has enormous power with the dollar but oil is a different proposition.

If I was Iran I'd resist unless there was reparation. The bombs have caused less deaths than the Iranian have themselves done in shooting and executing their own protestors. They know the US is struggling to justify the war and Netanyahu is only popular with the settlers and the IDF. What have they got to lose? In one respect they'd love the US to invade where there advantages are greatly reduced. There aren't even public bomb shelters in Iran. You die and become a martyr.

There have been massive miscalculations here from Trump to Starmer directly affecting us. I think Iran will resist to ensure that the pain is felt by people in Europe and the US. For the US it will be World Trade as they are energy rich but for us in the UK it will affect us in many, many ways as we import much and manufacture little; energy being the most important of our imports. The longer it goes on the shorter Ed Miliband's future becomes. Starmer thinks he's showing leadership. It takes more than sticking to your manifesto and increasing benefits for the lower paid. He's clueless and without imagination.

⚠️ 3) The critical nuance: Brent is understating the crisis

This is where it gets really interesting — and where your intuition was sharp.

From the latest reporting:

Buyers are paying ~$30 more to get Brent earlier than the quoted contract

Plus massive shipping + insurance premia (tens of dollars)

👉 Translation:

The quoted Brent price ($107–108) is NOT the real prompt price

The true “get me a barrel now” Brent price is:

Way higher than screen price

----------------

Our Energy minister has no conception of what happens in a crisis. An even bigger problem is that his boss [Starmer] thinks our energy is in safe hands. IT IS NOT. Like Mike Tyson said - "everyone has a plan 'til they get punched in the mouth". I don't think we have a plan.

I've been talking to AI:

🔥 1) The key number: the prompt spread

Right now, the most important metric in oil isn’t flat price — it’s this:

Front month vs next month

And it’s gone wild.

WTI May vs June ≈ +$15–16/bbl

Brent May vs June → similarly extreme (even larger in physical market terms)

That is huge.

For context:

Normal backwardation = $0.50 – $2

Strong backwardation = $3 – $5

Crisis-level = $10+

👉 You are now in full-blown dislocation

This is an important indicator imo. In FX you'll often get cheap money in front of a currency coming under pressure (short the spot/cover day to day). It is because speculators are buying in because they don't know exactly (timing) when it will hit the fan. It is a face off usually with the Central Banks who in this case are those controlling the SPR. It looks to the amateur as the market is awash with liquidity until it isn't. I suspect something similar here. We don't usually get a true picture of the physical but this looks like panic buying. I wish I knew more but perhaps we should have been watching WTI more. If there is NO Brent then you can only buy WTI. Meanwhile the Norwegians are booking new cars and holidays. We aren't being told the truth by our Government. I fear it is far worse than we're led to believe and they will be issuing propaganda at pace.

Almost a false contango. This is where the professionals have a big advantage over us. I worry what a journalist with minimal knowledge looking for an excitable title might print. Be interested to know more about this?

I was wondering similar. This weekend is Easter and more importantly the markets are shut for 2 extra days. With his affinity for doing his worst when markets are closed and the religious nutters whispering in his ear can Trump resist a "crusade" into Iran or its hinterland - this weekend?

Rachel Reeves opens rift with Miliband by backing North Sea drilling

The chancellor said she was ‘very happy’ to back exploration at Rosebank oilfield and Jackdaw gasfield.

Aubrey Allegretti and Daniel Sanderson, Scottish Political Editor

Wednesday April 01 2026, 11.55pm, The Times

*Note 'Scottish Political Editor'. The Jocks on the march.

Religion and the Ayatollahs are a scourge on humanity but there are far, far more decent Iranians just trying to exist and do the best for themselves and their families. There is no simple answer. Imagine if it was Russia or China doing the bombing? The US, Europe and the UN would be up in arms (sorry, you started it notanewmember). I just want it to end and for the UK to use its own O&G rather than import it as far as possible. Certain groups don't like it but it brings energy and National security with it.

With a dash of Scottish pragmatism:

"While he emphasised that he still supported climate compatibility assessments before the projects could get the go-ahead, he accepted these would probably be a formality and lead to approval. This is because he accepted the correct test should be a comparison between burning domestic or imported fuel."

Burning domestic or imported - it should never have got this far. That'll wipe the smug smile of Starmer's face.

John Swinney reverses SNP position on oil and gas drilling

First minister said increased risk to UK’s energy security helped make the case for exploiting the Jackdaw gas and Rosebank oil fields in Scottish waters.

John Swinney has reversed the SNP’s position on oil and gas drilling after admitting the war in the Middle East “changes the balance of the arguments”.

The first minister, at a pre-elections hustings, said the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had raised grave issues around UK energy security and helped make the case for exploiting the Jackdaw gas and Rosebank oilfields, which are in Scottish waters.

*It is after 12:00 so not an April Fool's day joke. From The Times today timed at 8:20pm

Build it and they will come.