Member Info for romaron

I'm old enough to remember the Shah going and the Ayatollah returning. Not much has changed since 1979 in the way that the Clerics and the Revolutionary Guards think or act. In fact they've had 47 years to become firmly embedded. Trump wants instant gratification. They are the opposite.

What a mess!

Trump clearly didn't listen to his military strategists and the old phrase "ownership is 9/10ths of the law" is evidenced here. Not perfect for Iran but their stubbornness and quest for martyrdom gives them a strong hand. They own and control one side of the Arabian Gulf. If the US take Kharg island then the Iranians will retaliate by making it dangerous for any ship to pass through the Strait of Hormuz permanent. Unless there is a UN force or the US to police it and I don't feel there is any appetite for that.

I think World commerce overrides the actual conflict and Iran would risk alienating its few friends and neutrals if it permanently blocked the Strait. This realisation has stabilised oil and hopefully it will stay below $100.

We don't want a recession and a period of stability benefits all companies and the importance of O&G has been reaffirmed. 20% of the world's supply now has a tap that can be operated by Iran. It was always a threat but this conflict has made it real. Unintended consequences have rained down on Trump. My best result is face-saving by both sides and an uneasy peace. I doubt O&G will ever be the same again.

Which leaves us with the YE figures on Wednesday and a response from the Government about energy going forward. Miliband will claim renewable energy independence has been proven whilst others will see this as an opportunity to push the claims of fossil fuels as dispatchable power when needed. Stability is what is required. We are in a very good place. It needs the Government to recognise how strategically important , for a variety of reasons, it is to have O&G reserves and production.

I think that even Miliband would shy away from increasing the sentence and penalty on the O&G industry. There is obviously some support for O&G within Labour and even the Unions have finally put jobs before ideology. My concern though is that the Unions support jobs only in the sense that they want to keep their workers on side and is pure tokenism - especially with Unite. The hierarchy still support NZ imo and it is election year for Sharon Graham.

I can live with the OGPM being enacted sooner. Problem is it is pretty pointless if there is no relaxation of granting new licenses. If they do nothing then it is clear to the world and his brother that Labour puts ideology and fear mongering above common sense and the safety of the British people.

Can this government get anything right? Leadership - you know what, I'd rather have Angela Rayner. Ed wouldn't stand a chance against her.

On the agenda is a motion to address profiteering by energy firms. Any further attacks on the O&G industry won't stop them profiteering - it will stop them breathing.

A cyclical industry requires an opportunity to benefit from the highs. Tool maker's sons and PPE graduates don't seem to "get it".

Who else but "Perfidious Albion". I was wondering where the UK gets its jet fuel oil from? An important refinery is Stanlow and while googling up popped Nigeria as a supplier. Not massively but enough of a clue to dig a little deeper especially following the recent State Visit. Turns out that whilst Nigerian oil is ageing and subject to major thefts it has masses of offshore reserves. The biggest concrete deal announced during the visit was actually a £746 million UK-backed financing deal to upgrade Nigerian ports. Well I can join the dots. Nigeria is one of Africa’s biggest oil producers, and the UK has long-standing energy interests there. The UK still cares about where future barrels come from, even if it’s less public about it and oil was kept quietly out of the headlines. The game is changing because of the Dangote Refinery as Nigeria moves up the value chain and will be exporting jet fuel. Not necessarily a game changer but we've seen what choke points and access to alternative sources can do and this is actually a clever strategic move so nothing to do with Ed Miliband. Encouraging that some officials live in the real world.

In the meantime sacrificing jobs and reserves in the NS continues.

What is wrong with the Unions and Scottish workers? Time to force a screeching U turn on this ideologically driven government.

*Today is Day 1 in the year 1405 in the Persian Calendar. Sounds about right!

Surely O&G cannot be blamed again for political mismanagement and planning? EnQuest until this war was a bit of a backwater with only desultory punter interest and very low volume traded. I don't know exactly what it means but of 16 mio turnover today 9 mio was the UT and late reported trades. Professionals are trading the stock again. Trading at the fix (UT) is another way of agreeing a strike price and getting amounts done without too much trouble. I don't think we should overread the gyrations but it doesn't stop us trying to understand whats behind them. Truth is we'll probably never know. FTSE was down but UK O&G lost more. Maybe there's a derivative trade playing a gap. Nothing would surprise me and there was something (for me) in what Currie said about the US authorities intervening. WTI isn't a concern because they can stop exporting but why not put pressure on Brent for leverage? There's even a divide between the big trading houses like Vitol and the trading arms of Exxon for instance. We can't play in their game but we can hold a position.

EnQuest was a BUY before the conflict kicked off and is in one of the few industries that is actually in "windfall" territory. It is overshadowing what was already a very convincing investment case and this war has made the British Public (the voters) understand just how important O&G is. The challenge now is picking the best O&G company to invest in. It doesn't have to be EnQuest but as long as we finish in a play-off position I'll be happy.

Great finds M. Nuttall and Currie are stopped clocks but this is their moment. I don't think people appreciate just how dangerous this is for the World economy and it looks like China and India have won. Currie talks like an old "Prop" trader and wouldn't have the freedom he once enjoyed today. I like the quote from Nutthall about the ratio of Paper to Physical being 50:1. EnQuest are the physical and eventually it all returns to this.

I had my finger over the BUY button this morning but enough is enough. EnQuest is an Oasis in a desert.

Q: What did communists use before candles? A: Electricity

"We are a united team facing the threats caused by the influence of fossil fuels forcing up the price of energy. That is why Ange was sat next to me at PMQT yesterday. Ed was unavailable as he was up North organising barricades in case of any unrest from that part of the world. This was all the fault of Tory misrule over 14 years and we are sorting out the mess. My dad was a tool maker and I am working class. I am the best person to lead in this crisis and to save the world from carbon dioxide. Invading Norway is an option." Kier xx

June 20.70 - 21.27

Sept 21.01 - 21.59

No doubt the strikes by the combatants in the Iran war yesterday will push the price of EnQuest higher. Of course I wanted higher prices for EnQuest stock but there is no pleasure in achieving it through the suffering of so many innocent people. The world remains a dangerous place and Energy Security is more than a glib soundbite.

"to ending this terrible disease and search for a cure".

Talking to a psychiatrist this afternoon he told me he was Malaysian of Chinese heritage. Of course I dived in and asked him what he knew about O&G. He knew quite a lot and its importance to Malaysia should not be underestimated. I hadn't really considered it from the Malaysian perspective and was surprised to find out that in SEA Malaysia and Petronas are HUGE. Petronas provide 20% of Federal Revenue so will be treated much better than our O&G industry. They are second biggest oil producers in the region (Indonesia No.1) although they export more than Indonesia. Then this for LNG: Malaysia: The largest producer and exporter in the region. In 2024, it produced approximately 32 million metric tonnes per annum (MTPA). Malaysia is a global heavyweight, ranking as the 5th largest LNG exporter in the world. Most of its production comes from the PETRONAS LNG Complex in Bintulu, Sarawak, which is one of the world's largest at a single location.

It is strategic positioning by EnQuest and we are one of the most respected and long standing companies in the region. I'm sure AB being Muslim isn't a handicap either. There isn't much difference in population size between Europe and SEA.

The transformation deal/deals could come from a variety of directions. This stock is sooo undervalued.

*And NO, I wasn't being treated for EnQuest mania KO - I am on a Dementia Cognitive Trial with Chariot at Imperial. The same tests that Trump says he took plus medical and other analysis. Hopefully I'm making a small contribution to this terrible disease.

"Brent crude futures fell below $101 per barrel on Wednesday, reversing gains from the previous session after Iraq reached a deal to resume oil exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan port, easing concerns over supply disruptions tied to the Iran war."

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

Er, it'll supply 250,000 bpd initially. The Straits was around 20mio bpd when fully working. Reads more to me like desperation.

Coupla early morning thoughts. Susanna Reid pointed out on GMB that most medicines are Petroleum based. With the meningitis scare that will be repeated. The other is self-interest returning. The support for NZ is dropping down the priority list and whilst it'll remain at the top for Ed Miliband and Tessa Khan whilst those lower down, unless they are part of the cult and beyond saving, will be looking to the near future. We are already seeing a change in rhetoric and a reluctant defence and understanding of the O&G industry. Undelivered promises are there to see as is a reduced emphasis on climate and a move towards Energy Security. I think people can see on the news that the problem for the world presently is the need for oil and nobody will send a fleet to defend windmills.

Last night on Newsnight you could see from a clip of RR and comments from the Labour guest, Baroness Debonnaire a softening against O&G and an acceptance we'll need it for decades. I sense the pitch is being rolled and current events give cover for what the country needs most - and that is GROWTH. You don't get it with the most expensive energy in Europe.

But I think the main reason for a change in sentiment is more about looking after number one and their closest. The threat that any backing down will lead to the Left taking over Labour should Labour backtrack on NZ is hollow imo. Unless they are in the cult they will see which way the wind is blowing (sorry) and realise that their voters are more interested in costs and jobs. I think Miliband runs the risk of being isolated.

Then there is the ground support of the likes of Uplift, Carbon Brief and Cleaning Up. DEI and ESG are spoken about less and some brands are now considered toxic. Its effect is reducing the amount of funding going to them as what was once a gravy train are looking for fresh subsidies. They are losing funding and that leads to job cuts. Even Greta has moved on.

Correction: first line "I'm sticking with NO regime change".

Hi Hunbah, making me think as usual. I'm sticking with regime change and bitter resistance. No country appreciates being invaded and although no boots on the ground (so far) the bombs and missiles are affecting every Iranian. My daughter lives in Little Tehran (N Finchley) and many are not celebrating Persian New Year this Friday - I'll know more on Friday as I'm dining at a restaurant owned by an Iranian Thursday evening. His name is Ali and he doesn't hide it but most customers think he is Italian (Alessandro?) and he doesn't correct them. He is very well connected and his opinion will be interesting. They are crazy people. I don't know how true it is but I met an Iranian refugee who fought in the Iran/Iraq war. He claims that an officer leading a charge lost an arm. He picked it up and waved it to rally the troops and continue the attack. I also went into Bank of America ECU as my drinking partner had the late shift and had to pop in to check (no mobiles or pagers then) on anything that needed the boss's attention. It would have been early 1980's. He couldn't resist showing me a telex that had arrived about 2metres long which was 1.75 metres of obscenities and name calling of American spittle dogs etc.. and at the end the orders to rollover maturing blocked/frozen dollar deposits. It was a lot of cash. I don't think they've changed that much and our last hostage crisis here Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe can also be traced back to the 70's and a contract dispute for British tanks. The Iranians have long memories and are not as impetuous or as stupid as they are portrayed. They have religion and patriotism - a combustible mix. There are a lot of sympathisers in the ME and strategic Shia communities. In fact I think AB is Sunni and his wife Shia. None of this is scientific but it does affect my decisions on EnQuest.

I'm on the same page as your other comments.

The EPL is moot. Unite Union at branch level is effectively the Green Party. The mid-level Union apparatchiks who are in the majority don't care about O&G workers. The Unite Political Officer for London more or less told me exactly that last week. I do so hope it was minuted.

I'm afraid that Starmer and RR have either been brain-washed, or actually believe in NZ. I do hope that "suddenly they aren't".

I only know about FX and there is NO simple explanation. On top of delivery or receipt of physical oil there are payments to be made. The majors (apparently) don't hedge because they have Trading arms that do it for them and they are very profitable. Left out of the equation/hedges discussion is interest rates and nothing escapes their clutches. Futures and options get as close as they can for the physical but the vast majority of deals are basically speculation and/or the result of underlying oil trades. Even domestic electricity generation is fiendishly complicated. I just know its there in the same way my car engine and electrics work. I just really start, steer and brake. I have read (and still have) The Complete Guide To Global Oil Market Trading by Simon Watkins.

This is the blurb:

"The oil market is the most highly manipulated of all financial markets because it is so important to the economics and power of virtually all countries. That makes it the perfect dealing scenario for any trader: it is a market that frequently trends dramatically in one clear direction for an extended period of time.

Unlike the other major markets of foreign exchange, equities and bonds, the oil market is manipulated in such a way that it offers a much more level playing field for the retail trader, offering huge profit potential against extremely minimal risk, if managed properly."

The second paragraph is total b*llocks imo. I never traded FX once I left the City. The dice are too loaded and I'd suggest oil trading is too. I am in EnQuest because of the first sentence only really.

I remember when the Swiss peg was removed in 2015 and the risk is always that people expect the trend, which is 'your friend' to continue. It doesn't. So I challenge the minimal risk. "Prop" traders are almost a thing of the past and believe it or not we have a freedom that many companies do not.

So Dumbly if and when we meet I have a gift for you. Reading it will not really enlighten you.

There is so much good stuff on this forum but some goes over my head so here is the dumb-downed version.

Transformational deal? It hasn’t been defined and may by now be more than one deal. It has been a long while since the quote (nearly 2 years?). 5k bpd would impact the price but we all think it’s bigger and by now is there more than one?

The impact of hedges – over discussed and the point missed. The company is obliged/encouraged to into hedges by the banks and basic good housekeeping. The company gets criticised for not taking hindsight bets. There is no golden solution, and swaps are never discussed though larger. There is NO single option to protecting or levelling out revenue. They all tie in with each one way or another and leaving a portion uncovered enables Spot trading where there can be advantages. EnQuest has its own Market & Trading company which appears to be very conservative otherwise we’d see bigger ups and downs in the final figures.

Price of oil – good for us and every day it incrementally raises the price. The fear is for buyers is that they buy and overnight there is a resolution and peace/truce with Iran leading to a collapse. That is saying it is a binary bet; it isn’t. It is more complicated that that and the impact is going to last until the Autumn imo. A ceasefire will need to be tested and presently doesn’t seem close. Until this happens EnQuest is on a trajectory upwards – even Stevo would agree that.

The current unrest has cratered any potential deal. NO, might have made it more difficult but allowing for an extended price of oil can be factored in. O&G have some big brains, top lawyers and tax accountants. BP took a view on Magnus.

The EPL/OGPM – don’t be silly. This won’t change until another energy security disaster arrives and the chances are high. Miliband is demanding a high price for the negatives. He hates big business, especially O&G. A one-man wrecking ball with a pathetic boss. I rarely agree with Trump but in this case he’s right that Starmer needs to grow a pair.

Tax Credits - still there and the value of all our assets have increased. I think SEA is misunderstood and undervalued by analysts here because it is so far away.

Andrew Neil commenting on Miliband: https://x.com/afneil/status/2033244727168868706

"He wants to deploy UK forces we don’t have to keep oil and gas flowing 3,000 miles away but forbids any new investment in our sector of the North Sea. Bonkers."

I really hope we don't lose one member of our armed forces. If we do would Miliband say "they died defending Net Zero"....?

I did listen this morning to Ed and from memory I picked up two things (watching the interview again or water-boarding would be a hard call). He said that Rosebank and Jackdaw production delay was down to "planning" and hinting that he doesn't have the final say on that. My reading is that he is fighting to the bitter end but has created an escape route. He also made sure with Kuenssberg that "tie-backs" were mentioned.

I think Bressay is a goer from that alone.

The point about O&G production not affecting the price of energy is b*llocks with a grain of truth. With gas it is clearly a lie as our gas is a mixture of natural and LNG whereby the LNG gas component is 3/4 times the price with increased emissions. Why import from Norway NG and pay them when we could have jobs and revenue in the UK economy from our own NS gas? With oil more obscure but what is missing is the profits that could go to, for example, the NHS or reduction of Student Loans. In a crisis there is always force majeure - the Chinese are already stopping some refinery exports.

Ed just obfuscates and tries to confuse. A pint of beer is subject to the global price of hops but like O&G is a small proportion of the actual price we pay for delivery or enjoyment once the draconian taxes etc. are added on to beer and O&G.

Ed is mansplaining to both sexes and I think they both know it doesn't add up.