Member Info for romaron

In the 80's I worked for RP Martin, a money-broker that was bought by Quadrex, a company owned by Gary Klesch an American. He was a big guy and would stroll around the office smoking a huge cigar; the word arrogant hardly did him justice. He was roundly disliked as just another brash "septic" but I always remember him for one quotation. The company before he came was quite old-school and he shook it up. He moved on to set up a vulture fund that was very successful. The quotation revolved around the "steady Eddie" approach of the incumbent management.

He said "Any company that wasn't engaged in commercial litigation; wasn't doing its job properly".

Profitaker gets it.

KO - this is a market only the professionals and those in the industry can participate in. If we wan't to trade spot we can go to City Index or the like or play the Brent futures. We are limited but even more by our lack of info.

Even the professionals will be split and specialise in certain areas. You'll have those who are trading and balancing supply/demand in the future ; making contracts; dealing between producers and refiners; arranging shipping & insurance; end delivery etc..

I remember the only time in history that WTI crude oil settled below zero (April 20, 2020), when it dropped to -$37.63 per barrel, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and a storage shortage. That was an extreme instance but there are mini breakdowns like that happening at the physical front end that we NEVER usually see. The WTI was a kinda weird fixing and unlikely to be repeated but some people made/lost a fortune that day.

FX would have these less common events and the forwards never moved as much as the rollover dates or even overnight with sterling. I've dealt overnight dollar/sterling swaps at 1,000 % plus as well as Lira in the 100's %. In times of stress the Italian authorities could charge you the difference in fixings if you were short so imagine the damage a devaluation could cause! The sterling was usually on a make-up day to catch out foreign rule-breakers funding a euro-sterling shortage via domestic.

Then you have Shell & BP making HUGE profits in trading that escape EPL. That is because they have a finger in every pie in the chain. It is effectively inside-trading imo. Remember the guys who had it off when WTI went negative. Some of the brokers came from Theydon Bois which is near me. A young lad opposite me was talking to me around the time and mentioned that one of the brokers was a pal of his and was the one with the Ferrari. He was 23.

There is unknown chaos heading our way and our political leaders are oblivious. I'd make sure you are well stocked for your business. Just-in-time is going to be replaced by If-you're-lucky.

Some great comments here. As for reputational damage I'm sure that the NSTA welcomes being cast as the "DESNZ Enforcer".

"Green fund manager’s shares drop 25% after client exodus

Patrick Hosking - Financial Editor

A warning from Impax Asset Management that clients had pulled £2 billion from the environmentally focused fund manager in the first three months of the year has sent the shares sharply lower.

The shares, which were trading as high as £14 in 2021, were down 31½p, or 25.1 per cent, at 94¼p yesterday. Impax spent £10 million on a buyback programme last year at an average price of 180p."

ESG and B Corp is now toxic and more importantly loses you money.

I read through the Sanction Notice (thanks kenfitlike) and can only have an amateur's opinion. The response from EnQuest reads and looks like "Disclosure" before a Civil Case. There does appear to be some shaky claims from NTSA not really supported by precedent and the more relaxed attitude towards decomm that seemed to be the previous regime. I am biased but it does read as though NSTA have been told to get tough. Their ultimate boss is Ed Miliband and you can argue that it is an arms length quango but DESNZ is its sole shareholder.

31:1 and 31:2 concern mitigation which NSTA have ignored. So Covid, collapse in oil prices followed by EPL and the impact it had on the industry is not taken into consideration.

I have yet to see any serious attempt to be even-handed with renewables who rather than being taxed to extinction like the O&G industry continue to reap subsidies.

DESNZ is actually engaged in sabotage imo towards the O&G industry. I hope EnQuest do challenge this fine and it gets the public attention and unfairness being meted out to the O&G industry. I'd like to see under "full disclosure" communications between NSTA and DESNZ. It appears EnQuest have supplied their internal communications.

Sorry to disappoint you Dumbly but this is fresh and hardly encouraging https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NAg3To46yY

It sounds to me that Starmer is as indoctrinated as Miliband. Listen to him (as usual) avoid the question at 19:25 on whether he supports O&G.

The bit about O&G starts around 16:30.

"The government’s multibillion-pound plan to turn Britain into an artificial intelligence “superpower” was dealt a blow on Thursday when OpenAI halted its Stargate UK data centre project, citing Britain’s high energy costs and regulatory environment."

They obviously don't believe Miliband's guff. I don't mind waiting 11ms (0.011 seconds) for a reply from Norway.

Some of us are old enough to remember the 1980 Iran Embassy siege in London. A pal of mine, originally from Bow, lives in Australia and although an Australian citizen still has the UK ex-pat sense of humour and sent me this regarding the high opinion some Americans have of themselves that he found on social media:

“The truth is that if it had been a European Pilot who’s fighter plane was shot down the rescue mission would’ve taken weeks if not months for European countries to plan it and carry it out”

The response from Eastendlass

“B*ll*cks. They’d have sent in two SAS guys with a broken ruler and a packet of Monster Munch and they’d have got him out quicker. And they wouldn’t have been w*nking themselves off about it afterwards either.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDy6RIwTve4

Is someone who can explain complicated and often esoteric processes and systems in a way that people like me can understand. Kathryn Porter is a PI and this is an excellent break down of the gas supply chain. She mentions decommissioning and points out that some commentators try to suggest that Government contribution is a subsidy. IT IS NOT. It is a rebate on monies paid throughout the life of the field which the Government never put into a special fund. This is something that is giving me a headache as it means that the Govt will have to pay out money it hasn't saved for this event so today's announcement about fining EnQuest seems to put ED and his quango at odds with Rachel Reeves. Listen from 5:10.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1taxiSpIVEw

I think Ed and his Department are lashing out. Maybe the pressure is getting to them? The Unions should come out in support of the industry. I imagine that EnQuest will have support of Ithaca and Serica but what is really needed is Shell, BP or even Equinor to give backing. It does seem that EnQuest are being made an example of. Some of the delay dates back to 2020-2021 when oil was below $40.

This attack is surely not accidental and the timing shows outright hostility to the industry. And what a time to choose to attack an important industry with the Gulf situation unclear?

I despise this Government.

As Ed explained. Rosebank and Jackdaw are not being held up by him but by Scottish judges. The "judicial process" so loved by his boss.

In the same spirit the NTSA makes its own decisions although DESNZ is the sole shareholder and is ultimately accountable to Parliament for it.

So in short it is "not me Guv" from Ed and any accusations of spitefulness and petty mindedness are misdirected.

It seems to me that the NTSA is staffed by acolytes and zealots of NZ and allows Ed to avoid responsibility but get his own way.

It is called arms-length and allows Ministers to pretend that these quangos are independent. Funny how the results always seem to favour DESNZ.

I do Papegoja.

ITM Power is up 12%. They've just won a lottery run by GB Energy and got a grant from DESNZ.

*ITM Power has never made a profit or paid a dividend.

Announced today, "Major hydrogen project to create over 400 new jobs in technology that uses electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, driving clean energy superpower mission with good jobs for British workers.

Great British Energy, the UK’s publicly owned energy company, and government to invest £86.5 million in a UK-first hydrogen project in South Yorkshire. "

Has Ed sneaked this through whilst his boss is on an "awayday" and attention is elsewhere?

Others are sceptical about Hydrogen https://eibi.co.uk/news/regulator-to-assess-claims-made-about-hydrogen-home-heating-trial/

and I think the Fife100 trial has been an enormous waste of public money. It is still being "tested".

*probably not the way an Accountant sees it but each of the 400 jobs costs £216,000 and the 300 homes in Fife have new heating for the bargain price of £100,000 a home.

Things could improve fast now that Kier has arrived in the Middle East and can demonstrate his expertise and the strength of the relationships he has so assiduously developed since he was elected. I am a bit concerned though that Trump may assume that others who depend and benefit on the freedom of the seas and the Arabian Gulf may be required to police it instead of the Americans. Indeed, in Trump’s mind it may well look like Starmer has waited until it has been made safe by the Americans to visit the region. Where was he when it was kicking off? It just adds to the picture of timidity and inflexibility of Starmer on the World Stage imo.

Is it right to risk our service men and women’s lives to protect oil & gas from the Middle East and at the same time refuse to use the safer and “home grown” oil & gas in our own backyard? Hopefully it was just an attempt to look statesman like in a vain attempt to save the Labour party from annihilation at the forthcoming Local Elections.

I wasn't going to bother posting but the US$ HYNs were up today and I put it down to the proposed opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the ceasefire. Probably is the reason but coincidental.

144A 102.25 > 102.75

RegS 101.50 > 102.25

I don't think so. This is apparently the 6th deadline. There has been a regime change. Replaced by a younger regime and the IRGC is now much stronger than the religious leadership.

Trump has his off-ramp and Keir Starmer is jetting into the Gulf. I liked the comment that his mission is because of the economic implications to the UK. How come? We have O&G so it can only be the problems affecting London as a leading financial centre.

All rather messy but hopefully a more pragmatic and sensible energy policy will emerge. It is time to look at the first half of what DESNZ represents.

I guess we'll continue the ups and downs for months yet. I'm happy the killing has stopped for now. The Iranians have proven to have long memories and hold a grudge much longer than most. The hostage taking of Nazanin Zaghari was for a 50 year old debt not repaid by the UK to Iran.

I don't see a compliant Iran emerging at all.

We are seeing herd behaviour. I understand it and usually follow it. It is easy to manipulate and not necessarily shameful. Advertising and fashion are just two examples. The herd left O&G and the big investors led the exodus over the past decade. Funds dramatically sold out and we had ESG and competitive virtual signalling. This looks like it is over imo.

Why panic? Many companies just adjust and raise prices. That includes energy companies. Governments are doing the "keep calm and there is nothing to fear" which is knee-jerk because the option of saying there is a danger of starvation in Africa due to crop reduction because of NO fertiliser is real but could cause widespread panic and mass migration. We only have the 8 billion world population because of fossil fuels. It isn't only energy we import.

There is potentially a 'phoney war' in Europe because presently countries are running down reserves or using them to top up. China and Japan have planned well whilst Bangladesh and (of course) African companies are already suffering. Coal is again being mentioned as a replacement fuel and that throws an entirely different perspective on why O&G continues to be treated with contempt by the Green lobby.

I don't know how this will turn out but in some respects Iran is winning. They have friends in Russia and China plus of course other Shias and I'd say a lot of sympathy from other branches of Islam. The Ayatollahs are not so much the problem atm but the IRGC. They know that resistance is the only option if they wish to stay in power. The US attacking civilian infrastructure puts them on a par with Putin's actions in Ukraine. I think Trump has miscalculated the patriotism of the Iranians when tested.

I'm not too worried about the OGPM as I cannot see how the UK will survive the shortages coming our way without the assistance of a "home grown" industry. If the situation deteriorates further then SPRs are reduced around the world and shortages and rationing become the order of the day. Prices for many items shoot up and letting the O&G decline faster than necessary is akin to joining a hunger strike.

I think that O&G and EnQuest and others are priced to reflect this as a temporary problem and it'll all be over by June. I think that is optimistic and plain wrong. That spat in 1914 was the basis of the "it'll all be over by Christmas" but it also popped up again with the Korean War. Wrong both times.

Iran is aware that SPRs mitigate so maybe they plan to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until winter is approaching. I can only see panic being dialled-up.

The people whose job it is to look after people's wealth and pensions are not risk takers and I think we all agree that this is a particularly risky time. They also want to keep their jobs. They can be removed if they take a large bet on something that may or may not happen and get it wrong so have to wait for major events to play out. That is why we aren't double today's price. In O&G there are two events that are effectively starting guns for them to invest or return to the sector.

1. Trump getting the Straits of Hormuz open.

2. Early implementation of the OGPM and licensing existing fields.

Most politicians aren't risk takers either and with Keir Starmer we have a follower of events. He is classic middle-management and saving his job is a priority above all else. Unfortunately we are not in the UK masters of our own destiny. If this crisis continues then the pressure to act will become unstoppable. Meanwhile the damage to the UK continues. The public sense it but not the Labour party.

I agree NANM but this is what Rachel Reeves says:

"Minimum wage rising 📈

State pension increasing 💷

Two child limit abolished 🏡

Child poverty falling 📉

Rights at work strengthened 💪🏻

Labour promised change. We are delivering change."

And Andrew Neil's response:

"Every measure you list involves spending wealth.

You don’t list one measure that creates wealth.

And if you don’t create wealth you will soon run out of it to spend, which is already happening (hence all your extra taxes and borrowing)."

Last time I looked the North Sea O&G doesn't get any subsidies and is crucified by taxation.

Is it a Chancellor's job to destroy successful industries and spend?