Member Info for romaron

Re your earlier post M - The UK has roughly 30–36 gigawatts (GW) of gas-fired power capacity, depending on how you count it. And its ageing. Doesn't compare too favourably with the Reuters report - "Germany, the EU’s largest economy, plans to build around 36 gigawatts of gas-fired power capacity over the ​next few years, she added, ⁠a striking signal of how energy security is being prioritized over climate goals."

I'm not so confident now that we compare favourably against Zimbabwe.

OECD inflation warning.

Trump attacks UK again.

Govt Figures Confirm Heat Pumps Are Dearer To Run

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2026/03/26/govt-figures-confirm-heat-pumps-are-dearer-to-run/

It is incessant and you can probably add to the list and this is only today.

Resident doctors to strike - that was yesterday.

I think we may have reached saturation point. However, if we compare ourselves to Zimbabwe, we're doing OK.

It is a conundrum VoR but in some respects you are undermining the English which always goes down well in Scotland. If Scotland was independent it would be goodbye to the Barnett Formula. I'm putting a lot of faith in self-interest and I've never met a Jock who supports England in football or rugby. Its in their bones. If you look up the SNP position my post 25 March 09:05. I think its more nuanced than that. Maybe Frac, Lochnagary or one of the other Jocks can translate for us?

No, not that one in the Middle East. I mean the one being waged by Field Marshal Miliband on O&G. The remarks from Frac got me thinking. There is an uneasy peace between Scotland and the UK. There was support for NZ in Scotland by the SNP but some of it was because there was a feeling that O&G reserves were dwindling and anyway they belonged or were shared with England & the rest of the UK. Scotland's population is closer to Norway's as is the terrain to some extent. Norway has no intention of getting rid of O&G and I believe neither would an independent Scotland. Self-interest is a great motivator.

England have effectively said they don't want O&G and are running it down. Lets call the number directly affected as 200,000 in Scotland. AI says there are 31.63 mio people working in the rest of the UK and 2.68mio in Scotland (Total 34.31 mio).

So in Scotland it is 7% of Scots affected (and we are all aware of the multiplier effect).

In the rest of the UK (and I'm being generous) I'm calling the number 100,000 and that isn't even a rounding error (0.32%).

That is why Miliband gets away with it. There are no O&G workers in my street and TBH I've never met one in Barnet or Enfield.

I guess that Labour have pencilled in losing Scotland but no mind because they have so big a majority they can carry on turning us into Benefit Britain. What Miliband is doing to Scotland is happening in plain sight. Where are the Scottish guys I grew up with?

I'll finish with an anecdote: My first wife's grandfather came from County Durham and fought in a Pal's Battalion in WW1. and told me this tale. As the war was ending the German's were a beaten but potentially lethal force so to encourage the British army to gather prisoners of war (who by and large were willingly surrendering in the 1,000s) they were offered a digestive biscuit for every prisoner taken. This dour ex-miner merely remarked - "The Jocks never got no biscuits".

A rabbit in the headlights has more idea than Starmer. Miliband is an English problem. The Jocks of the past would have known what to do.

FTSE 250 - 26p should do it.

We're still waiting for you lot to start painting your faces blue and come charging over the border. I still cannot understand where all the angry Jocks went? But I am with you and I think that both the Unions and the Government are oblivious to the anger seething among workers. The workers are not always right but I misread the anger over Brexit and sense something similar here.

We live in an age of instant gratification and hand outs whether you deserve them or are just a scrounger. I was at a Westminster demo for the Lindsey Refinery and spoke to a guy who worked there. He introduced me to his son who also worked there adding that he had just had a baby making him a grandfather for the first time. Their trust and belief that they were making a difference saddened me as I recognised many Green activists and far left attendees there too. For them workers are collateral damage on the way to a carbon-free nirvana. I only trust GMB who don't show up to these theatrical road-shows and recognise the ulterior motives of the Greens. They [the Greens]despise O&G workers imo.

Starmer with his majority thinks he can deflect questions and is beginning to p*ss off the speaker who the other week said something along the line that there is a standing order obligation to respond but there is a real case weakness in that there is an assumption that the person knows the answer. Rather than the crime show "No Comment" you get what might look clever in a court room but falls flat when there are more than 12 people to impress. PMQT is becoming pointless and I have some sympathy with Farage for walking out with his MPs.

Tim Stanley wrote an article about it and I couldn't resist posting this:

"The Tories, yet again, asked whether Erskine May was being subverted. But Erskine wrote his guidebook for an era when MPs were literate and could argue in Greek. This lot can barely lie in plain English."

Superb!

Slightly better clip from CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/25/enquest-ceo-u-k-tax-regime-makes-north-sea-energy-exploitation-unviable.html

I've forwarded it to several contacts.

Hi Profitaker, thanks - "to execute a material UK North Sea transaction" - is not a "transformative transaction" but I am doing a U turn. They would not and possibly could not (governance) use the word "transformative" on a specific deal at this stage. It isn't watered down but used slightly differently into what is written. All a bit too subtle for me but I am back to your way of thinking and appreciate your reply.

"As we work to maximise the value of our existing assets, accelerate our expansion in South East Asia, and use our advantaged UK tax position and operating expertise to execute a material UK North Sea transaction, we expect that continued successful delivery will be transformative, broadening our production base, increasing cash flow and enhancing shareholder returns."

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Is it a row-back on a potential "transformative deal" and more years of uncertainty and plodding growth ahead?

The SNP had its own amendment but it never got a hearing.

Fiscal Reform: The motion called for the replacement of the Energy Profits Levy (windfall tax) with an Oil and Gas Price Mechanism. This mechanism was intended to provide more stability for the industry and protect against a "cliff-edge" decline in jobs.

Energy Security and Costs: It demanded immediate action from the UK government to support households facing high energy bills and expressed concern over the speed of decline in the North Sea sector.

Just Transition: The SNP's position emphasised a "just and sustainable" transition that protects the 200,000 skilled jobs supported by the industry while meeting climate goals.

AND of course Independence as well:

Scottish Control and Revenue: It argued that Scotland should have full control over its own natural resources and highlighted that the UK government had captured £350 billion in energy revenues from Scottish waters.

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At least the SNP have become more sensible. I imagine that if they gained independence they'd look at the Norway model. Anything is better than the religious persecution of the industry by the Head Inquisitor and his watchdogs. I choose "religious" because it makes no economic sense and the promise that humans can control the sun, the wind and the weather.

At 10:30 this morning

There was NO windfall in 2025.

At $75-$85 EnQuest prints cash. The government takes most of it.

This was earlier - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeFpvrk3gUs

The vote was NO surprise with the majority Labour have. Politicians decide policy, not the voters. You're already a strange animal if you wish to become an MP imo. With no General Election looming they can ignore the public and businesses. I cannot understand the SNP stance either.

The Conservatives will today force a House of Commons vote on ending the UK Government’s ban on new North Sea oil and gas projects, alongside proposals to scrap the windfall tax and approve the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields.

The opposition day motion is not binding, meaning Labour MPs may be instructed not to support it, although some could rebel amid growing pressure within the party.

Shadow Scottish Secretary Andrew Bowie said: “Recent global events have underlined the importance of meeting our own domestic oil and gas needs."

https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/tories-to-force-commons-vote-on-north-sea-today-as-labour-divisions-grow

We are only observers of the chaos around us and we each have markers that we use. EnQuest usually moves with its peers (SQZ, HBR etc.) and suffers from only paying one dividend in its life. I then look occasionally at Shell and BP to see which direction they have moved. Usually something similar but to a lesser degree. What I.m looking for is mus moving in an opposite direction. Amateurish but then I am an amateur in O&G.

I wondered with the Strait of Hormus importance what was happening in Malaysia as that will impact us to a lesser extent. I chose Petronas and of course found they were shut because of Eid. So they closed on the 19th and opened today. They have what appears to be 3 quotes:

PETDAG 19/3 21.84 24/03 21.70

PETGAS 19/3 16.80 24/03 17.74

PCHEM 19/3 5.48 24/03 5.71

Steadier than Europe. The US also seems to have recovered towards the end but they are the worlds biggest producer of O&G. This may be of interest or stimulate a discussion but we cannot ignore Malaysia. Who knows - the region may provide a transformational deal?

*I imagine that Trump's histrionics factored in the end of Ramadan and the timing is not accidental. What impact it had is beyond me but Jerusalem and salvation is buzzing around Trump's head somewhere..

Hi Frac, I will remain suspicious of my own Union (Unite) until I see concrete action that isn't undermined by mixed messages. I worry that Sharon Graham is appeasing her left Wing which is very strong especially in matters of energy and I am in touch with various groups and individuals making my scepticism known. She is (imo) in a very similar role to Starmer - clinging on and not in complete control.

GMB are a different kettle of fish as are, believe it or not, RMT. They still put workers first. Ideology is for priests and their followers.

Except that Unite leaders support NZ. The workers are being fed soundbites. "Unite Investigates" was subcontracted out to Uplift among others. I don't trust or believe them.

https://www.unitetheunion.org/what-we-do/unite-investigates

Not scientific but Exxon and Chevron did OK today. Malaysia was shut. I'd say at first glance and using these two companies in a very broad sense the US investors think the fat lady isn't even in the building yet. Or, we're alright Jack and its "America First".

Tomorrow is unlikely to be quiet and predictable.