Member Info for romaron

"Spring Statement: North Sea windfall tax remains as Reeves to meet ‘North Sea industry leaders’ " this is the heading but it is either sloppy reporting or unprofessional phrasing of what was actually said; basically clickbait. I think these 2 junior journalists have forgotten that social media is more a place for fake news. On LinkedIn Floyd March wrote this in the last hour:

" While the windfall tax remains in place, the OBR predicts that it will cease raising tax from 2027!

Perhaps more pertinent, Reeves will be meeting with key North Sea players tomorrow to discuss the unfolding situation with Iran."

The headline is meant to read that RR said 'no change'. She did not. Maybe she won't but there is a difference between speculation and what was actually said. I did once subscribe to EV but found it not worth the money. This confirms it for me.

I make you right Frac.

*If they were right I doubt the price of NS O&G would have held up so well today with a 300 point drop in the FTSE

Seems EV have jumped the gun and it appears Ryan Duff and Floyd March have a scoop. I hope they're wrong but the headline is clear although I can't place it in her speech. It was a strange remark from RR and they were never going to announce a tax change in the Spring Statement anyway but her mention that she will meet with NS industry leaders is intriguing. Where, when and whom? It is perfectly acceptable to change tax rates in times of war and the current one is certainly impacting energy. So far it doesn't seem to have been picked up elsewhere and I went back to old habits to see if Reuters had confirmed it. Not so far. It would be nice if it was a cunning plan to force RR into denying it.

I took encouragement that Ed was without a seat and furthest from RR and disappearing immediately she finished and not waiting Stride's response. They used James Murray for post speech analysis which meant there would be nothing to learn.

Rachel can hardly ignore what is happening but she may do her best if she allows Ed to write the script. My addiction has returned and I have added today. My reason was that other UK O&G stocks were flying as they are heavy into the NS. In fact some concentrate on it. If something happens to EPL early then I'd argue that EnQuest would outperform them because we could effectively be paying close to zero tax. They are also ignoring our SEA assets and some of the projects out there alone could be transformational. My pet favourite is Brunei and many miss the fact that AB is a Muslim with top level contacts and a reputation to match. His foundation speaks of his integrity which is still valued in certain parts of the Globe. We have a smorgasbord of opportunities that most retail are unaware of whilst most Funds still have a fatwa on the NS O&G industry.

Labour are looking very flat-footed at the moment and self-harm is not a good look. One day they will wake up and smell the coffee though adenoidally challenged Ed Miliband never will.

You're missing the point M. It creates jobs. Digging a hole and filling it in. Problem is we've stopped digging holes so it ain't gonna work. You have to understand this country's obsession with potholes to truly see the benefit.

Https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/oil-surges-ahead-of-critical-week-for-north-sea-as-policy-pressure-mounts

"Labour ministers maintain that the North Sea is in long-term decline and argue that future energy security lies in accelerating renewables and carbon capture. Ed Miliband has said expanding drilling would not materially reduce household bills because prices are set on global markets."

BUT nobody asks Ed why we are happy to forgo revenue from our own reserves, import from overseas with increased emissions and see jobs disappear? He'd probably say that is a question for Reeves and Starmer - "not me guv!"

Replacing the EPL with the OGPM immediately would double the current price imo VOR. That is why we discuss it. It would also open the path to developing Bressay. Hopefully by discussing it here it might inform others who pass it on. How many people would know what the EPL is? 2%? How many the OGPM?

Maybe the ignorance of the public helps. Labour could bring it in early. The public wouldn't understand and neither would most MPs.

That's the proposed OGPM for March 2030. $90 for oil and 90p a therm for gas. We've hardly crawled into that territory today and yet the industry is still labouring under the EPL. Whatever we speculate may well make us look silly in a few days time but if a major war in the second biggest area of O&G production fails to lift us into what would be a fair and acceptable level for windfall profits to be applied this surely illustrates just how crazy and hostile the present taxation system for O&G is.

Https://grid.iamkate.com/ says we're using 10.4% fossil fuel but MWh is £85.69. That isn't making renewables cheap but you need a PhD to understand the half of it. Might throw up some interesting numbers if the conflict hardens and lengthens.

Thanks for the correction Frac. I talk about the EPL but it has morphed out of the windfall tax > EPL > ESIM > OGPM it is hard to keep up. They are one and the same to me and I'm not gonna argue definitions. My concern was that if Starmer decides to kowtow to his Left then he may ignore energy security and let his survival (temporary imo) and Ed's ideology triumph by doing NOTHING and leave the introduction date unchanged . The same thinking may apply to Reeves too. That is why I'm not getting excited. The 2030 date is 4 years away and the damage to the O&G industry if it is kept to could prove fatal. We know it is essential but until people join the dots and understand that punishing the O&G industry is actually self-harm to the country. We would merely replace imports (or a large tranche) with our own cleaner O&G whilst helping the cost of living with increased revenue.

Hopefully the "events dear boy, events" have made this the only logical decision and it has the added spice of being expedient which all politicians love.

At Green party HQ and DESNZ (the ES is only for show) they are crowing about this.

https://grid.iamkate.com/

It is what we are up against. On a Sunday morning when demand is at its lowest is spun into a future scenario.

From the article:

"Rumours are swirling that Rachel Reeves, in this week’s Spring Statement, may water down the EPL in a bid to kickstart UK oil and gas production. Yet Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, may be too weak to let that happen.

The Green Party’s victory in Thursday’s Gorton and Denton by-election has emboldened Left-wing Labour MPs who, despite union concerns, are often net-zero zealots. Labour’s activist base is even more gung-ho – one reason why Miliband is so popular among his party’s membership.

It is Labour MPs and activists who are masters of Starmer’s fate, who can remove him and appoint a successor.

And it may be that, with the Labour left on the rampage, Downing Street’s plans to temper the hugely damaging EPL on North Sea producers are watered down to the point of non-existence."

This is what I feared. If Starmer is faced with an existential threat (his job) or the country is faced with an existential threat (invasion) what will he choose. I fancy the former however if he does his track record on decision making is usually wrong. "Growth" presently remains just a soundbite with the most expensive industrial electricity in the world. Companies where latency is a problem (London Trading Houses) will have little option other than to move elsewhere if they cannot get dispatchable power at a competitive price.

I'm with you M. Chickens with heads off have more direction than this Labour government. This will cause overload and be just another addition to their woes. The ES in DESNZ doesn't apply to fossil fuels and in the twisted dogma of the Greens and far Left the O&G companies will be considered part of the problem.

We don't know how this will develop and Iran still thinks we matter in the wider world so an attack on our soil or overseas assets is possible. Expect the Greens and far Left in their checkered scarves to march against Israel and Trump to garner future votes. I don't think this will help unless developments demonstrate how important O&G is. That should happen if the war lasts more than a few days. As they say - "too early to call".

Starmer often gets trapped in the headlights so inaction is more likely which sadly includes EPL. In fact there will be an argument by some claiming a benefit from higher revenues from O&G because of EPL.

Great to see some old names returning mrc. The result is a bit of a curved ball and I'm struggling to interpret it. Just announced that Aberdeen are not progressing the hydrogen hub with BP so more money down the drain and it only leaves H100 Fife. I see that ending in tears too. Ed only mentions onshore wind and solar now because with his twisted costings he can pretend they're cheaper than gas generated electricity.

I think with the Greens it is a case of "give them enough rope ...." as their policies are decidedly crackpot and 6th form.

Another interesting arrival was this today: https://open.substack.com/pub/cloudwisdom/p/reversing-scorched-earth-policies-cc0?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

I will need to read it several times but the gist for me is that the much vaunted superiority of London as a financial centre is under threat due to high electricity prices and latency. I forecast another increase in electricity prices as the financial companies go to Norway, France and Sweden for cheaper, reliable electricity which means the interconnectors belong largely to them if AI takes off in the ways suggested. The poor, huddled masses in the suburbs will be warmed by expensive renewables and LNG.

I agree with M. On paper this is the worst result for us. Labour may well move further to the Left and their rabid ideology has just got another boosts. Of course things don't always move in the direction we forecast. The response will be that sitting governments always do poorly in by-elections but for sure the Left and Greens will be encouraged and excited by this.

Alright they're already saying that Muslim family voting and the large student population have assisted the Greens and cannot be duplicated elsewhere BUT it can be duplicated in plenty of places and I know of many boroughs in London where this will happen. I daresay Starmer will delay until May but I do worry that M may be right. Then you have it repeated in places like Glasgow.

I hope we're both wrong.

The official media are in by-election purdah but we aren't.

We know that politicians value their jobs and need voter support to retain said job. Using this statistic - In Scotland, 1 in 30 jobs is tied to oil and gas, whereas in the rest of the UK, it is roughly 1 in 220. Does it mean that Scottish politicians, especially the SNP, value the green blob vote higher than someone working in O&G?

To a politician losing 1 job only makes sense if you would lose more votes if you pushed for O&G exploration, investment and removing the windfall tax.

I'm only posting because I thought it was Labour that hated the O&G industry. I think Labour have been treated unfairly. It is the SNP and Scottish Greens that vehemently hate the industry. If it was 1 in 30 jobs in England being lost there would be riots in the streets.

Yesterday's was quite lively. A couple of extracts from Tim Stanley of the DT:

"That wasn’t a PMQs, it was a party political broadcast for the Gorton and Denton by-election, in which case Keir Starmer staked far too much on residents watching Parliament at midday during the working week (highly unlikely: Bargain Hunt’s on BBC1).

The only fly in the ointment? Kemi Badenoch with a tricky question about student loans. People are calling the Tories irrelevant, replied the PM. People are calling Labour “the paedo defenders party”, replied Kemi, triggering outrage on the government benches

On a totally unrelated note, the Speaker elsewhere advised the House that it was he who advised the rozzers that Peter Mandelson might be a flight risk, after picking up some gossip on a holiday in the Virgin Islands. Wonderfully catty, deliciously malicious! I’m tempted to phone in a tip that I saw Mandy buying a rubber dinghy in a desperate bid to cross the Channel. Let’s see if we can get the old sleaze fitted with an ankle monitor.

Kemi, worrying that she’d not been offensive enough, next referred to “the Bank of England”, noting that it was where the Chancellor used to work “in customer services”. The Chancellor appeared to mouth “f--- off”. Final proof that she has indeed worked in a complaints department."

The opposition might as well throw insults as Starmer no longer answers questions. The catechism has more flexibility and imagination than kneeler Starmer.

Hi Frac, I did read it but I have to admit to being unsure of where the SNP sit on this issue. For a long time I couldn't see any difference between them and the Green Party. I don't know enough about Scottish politics except that for a long time they and Labour were supporters of NZ and renewables. I don't trust them. If I was Scottish I'd want independence and an O&G industry - Norway isn't a bad model. I suspect that like the UK being run from London you guys in Scotland are run from Glasgow and Edinburgh by people with degrees in PPE. The SNP has only recently (or have they?) become supporters of O&G.

I didn't hear all of the interview and was alerted by my wife. BUT I'm happy to bet that Ed never mentioned our energy being controlled by petrostates and dictators. Those pictures of Andrew and Mandelson with dusky guys (never women) in white dishdashas when Labour were last in power are not a good look and some might suggest that Labour are hypocritical and take their principles off the shelf for immediate populist requirements and keeping their Left wing MPs under some form of control.

I am so enjoying this and we haven't even had PMQT yet. Often it is what ISN'T said more than what is said that gives us clues.

Other stocks moving too. The spring statement is 6 days away and we may have Labour scrabbling away for some good news following tomorrow's by-election.

What people are missing is that if the EPL does go because of our size/mc in comparison to the tax credits we will be the biggest beneficiary out of the NS Oil companies.

Ed doing the rounds promoting the lowering of energy bills by £117 (sleight of hand). "Those with the broadest shoulders etc." - (that's us) bearing the brunt the usual spin but just after the adverts Susanna Reid said - "Ed Miliband said that WE were right in that clean energy is the long term way forward". She then added - "well no one in the studio actually said that".

It was said with that supercilious nasal whine of his and I think is actually an encouraging signal.

I remember GWPF's reticence in repeating the 9X cheaper "big lie" on the basis that if you say it again some people will take it as fact. This is what ED is saying. He is putting words in people's mouths.

He is getting desperate.