Member Info for romaron

BUT it does rhyme:

"For years, Octopus was loss-making, surviving only because its shareholders repeatedly provided fresh capital. The obvious question was always why those shareholders tolerated persistent losses, and the answer was Kraken, the jewel in the Octopus crown. The energy supply arm absorbed losses while the software platform quietly embedded itself across the market."

Octopus seems to be imploding and we even have Dale Vince going anti-heat pump (Frac 23:39). It has taken a long time to reach this point. Even Greta has abandoned climate change for checkered scarf promotion. Like tankers it takes a lot to change direction but it looks like finally it is here to stay. I was reading up on Sweden's decision to join NATO and this comment made a lot of sense to me. "Neutrality had deep cultural roots, but it wasn’t sacred. Once Ukraine happened, Swedish public and parliamentary opinion moved quickly. Leaders followed voters more than they led them."

I think we are reaching a point where the Labour party can no longer ignore the electorate. Tipping points are like cliff edges. They operate surprisingly quickly. The voters are unprepared to follow Ed over the cliff edge imo.

"This week, the British Government announced it was taking an equity stake in Kraken Technologies, the software platform being spun out of Octopus Energy. Some £25 million of public money, we are told, will “help the company scale up and become a UK champion”. Yet the same press release tells us that Kraken already serves 70 million customers’ accounts across four continents and is a “powerhouse”, which raises the question of why it needs public money at all."

We've been here before. This is hardly without precedent. Learning from past mistakes is meant to educate. I take you back to EAGA and what happened when the Tories reduced the subsidy in 2010 thereby taking the trough away that had been in place for the past decade. The company was heading for oblivion until Carillion stepped in (and shortly after went bust). The Warm Front scheme started under DEFRA and the last 2 years DECC under a certain Ed Miliband — who served as Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change from its creation in October 2008 until the 2010 general election.

(He was the Labour cabinet minister responsible for overall direction of energy and climate issues in the final Labour government) A permanent subsidy system or a need of one suggests that there are systemic faults in our building stocks and it isn't the fault of fossil fuels. Draught excluders aren't high-tech or require skilled workers BUT the system of monitoring installers seems always to lead to corruption and poor workmanship. Heat pumps are usually unsuccessful with retro-fit in my experience unless you're prepared to throw large capex at the installation which then craters the economics.

What is missing in this debate is that it is all about electricity when in fact most houses are heated by gas and oil is still used and refined in thousands of every day usages. Ed is out of control and unlikely to survive the next election but until then ??????

Only adding this for a little bit of colour for overseas investors. My wife called out that Ed was on the TV. It was ITV breakfast TV and there were various pundits including Ed Balls (who supports Labour as ex-shadow chancellor) and Sarah Vine (ex-wife of Michael Gove) who is a respected journalist close to government figures.

Sarah Vine said that Ed came over totally plausible and even when challenged by Susanna Reid about previous failures in this area calmly replied that it was a Tory inheritance. Ed is a consummate professional politician. We have underestimated him. Ed Balls added that Ed Miliband is still the favourite to replace Starmer should he go.

I hope this new "investment" with "our" money does better than previous attempts.

"Solar panels will be fitted on all new houses and heat pumps installed in nearly half a million homes every year under sweeping plans unveiled by Ed Miliband.

The Energy Secretary on Wednesday launched a £15bn green energy plan to fit solar panels, heat pumps, insulation and double glazing to five million homes for people on low incomes – all at taxpayers’ expense.

Housebuilders will also be blocked from installing boilers and gas fires in new homes under building regulations to be announced later this year."

The old scheme has been closed after damaging thousands of homes and lives:

"A National Audit Office (NAO) report released in October 2025 found that approximately 98% of homes fitted with external wall insulation under the UK government’s Energy Company Obligation (ECO) and Great British Insulation Scheme (GBIS) require remedial work due to significant defects."

We're sleep-walking to disaster.

"being ready for the moment when arithmetic finally outweighs narrative." - aren't we already there? The narrative has no clothes- we can see it but Ed and his acolytes cannot or choose to discount it. Surely there are grown-ups from the military and business world explaining this to Starmer? Perhaps he doesn't really understand that an intermittent defence doesn't fulfil the "security" requirements of a State.

"The U.S. is already the biggest exporter of LNG, and its product now accounts for around 27 percent of EU gas imports, up from 5 percent in 2021. France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and Belgium are the largest importers; non-EU member the U.K. is also a major importer of U.S. LNG."

A WFT on the US won't work? Iran can stop the gas from Qatar in a heartbeat. The UK has NO naval fighting presence in the Gulf. What a shambles our politicians are!

"Swinney said the benefits of the windfall tax are ‘a mirage’."

He also said "pleas with Prime Minister Starmer had fallen on deaf ears."

And Scotland puts up with this? What will it take for them to get furious instead of "miffed". What next - Scottish people supporting England in the football World Cup? The contempt that Starmer is showing to an important part of the UK just shows how confident they are of following the NZ ideology in the face of genuine job losses and counter evidence. Their majority still has another 3.5 years to run. If it is any consolation they're f*cking up England too.

A recent National Audit Office (NAO) report, external on the ECO4 scheme more generally found much of the work carried out had been botched - with 98% of homes undergoing external wall insulation and 29% of homes given internal insulation ending up needing remedial work.

The government said more than 30,000 homes in Britain had had sub-standard work under ECO4 and the Great British Insulation Scheme since 2022, with Energy Consumer Minister Miatta Fahnbulleh telling parliament it amounted to ''systemic failure".

In last autumn's Budget, the government said it would not extend the scheme and in response to CES's closure said: "The ECO and GBIS schemes were not delivering value for money."

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Ed will be arm-waving shortly with a new scheme - A spokesperson for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said the government would now back a new scheme.

"We are instead investing an additional £1.5bn into our Warm Homes Plan, taking it to nearly £15bn, the biggest ever public investment to upgrade homes and tackle fuel poverty.

"We are doubling down on support for home upgrades and will set out our plans to help households, and support thousands more clean energy jobs."

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Oh dear, that much abused phrase - "lessons have been learned" will be wheeled out yet again. Is there any chance that government will ever get this right?

These are true horror stories - from 30:00 https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002q2qz on R4 earlier today.

*a billion here, a billion there - they'll soon be talking about real money. Can someone please tell Ed - it isn't his money, it's ours!

This is why you guys confuse us and why the English politicians can ignore you:

https://ecomagazine.com/news/industry/poll-shows-massive-public-support-for-north-sea-oil-and-gas/

On balance you want NS O&G to continue while the English don't give a toss. There aren't enough votes in it to interest Westminster but here's a thought. The comparison of UK to Norway made by ignorant, lazy and ideological twats that like checkered scarves totally miss the point. It has few similarities BUT Scotland to Norway is very relevant. Norway instead of England has Sweden and Finland attached (like UK) who have their own bit of sea.

There are plenty of reserves left in the NS and the rest of the UK has made it plain they don't want them. It could power Scotland forward and make it an Energy Giant like Norway. OK you've lost a chunk of reserves but I'd still back them against the Norwegians for drive and obstinacy.

Go to the Donald for support and make Starmer and Miliband's lives misery. He has Scottish ancestry and owns two prestigious golf courses there. I'm sure he would see endless possibilities and plenty of titles and awards you could bestow. Sod Greenland - buy Scotland or at least get the argument going and stir the pot.

I remember Scotsmen of old and we regularly played RBS in the London Banks League where they were copies of Billy Bremner (10 stone of barbed wire) and Dave Mackay. I don't recognise these modern day radical Left loonies that seem to run the show today. Time for Scotland to man up and show their traditional qualities.

"fallacies do not cease to be fallacies because they become fashions" - G.K. Chesterton

Influential people, institutions, or media start repeating it - not because it's true, but because it SOUNDS modern, compassionate, scientific, or progressive.

Isn't that the describing Net Zero?

Like clothing styles, it signals belonging. Accepting it marks you as enlightened; rejecting it marks you as backward. At this point, its truth is IRRELEVANT - its trendiness is what protects it.

romaron lounging in his flares and tank top listening to Rubber Soul

I have watched this several times and it gets better and more prescient each time. There are so may quotes worth remembering and my favourite is "we'll take away your lanyards and you won't have a job" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEx1vN-i7t0

The reason for posting is that could Maurice Glasman be the next high level defector to Reform that Farage has hinted at? It would be an extraordinary coup. It is not as unlikely as it sounds. My experience is that working Trade Unionists are as disgusted with Labour politicians as I am and that given the choice many would vote Reform (57 out of 60 according to a Unite rep from Grangemouth). Maurice Gladman was the only Labour party member at the second inauguration of Donald Trump and went to the Farage party after where he spent time in deep conversation with Nigel Farage. The Red Wall and Blue Labour are the same people imo and the Labour Party is blind to this.

Gladman's arguments are persuasive and his simple explanation of Germany's woes is becoming ever more evident. This is somebody who sees the stupidity of believing that human beings can change their values and history in a few short decades. His destruction of Zack Polanski is a masterclass and it is wrapped up with religion.

We certainly live in interesting times. This video is enjoyable, interesting and erudite with some excellent and amusing quotes. Glasman could have had a career in stand-up.

Enjoy.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQ3hT8tqZgo

Ed Conway has done a lot of work in this area. His book "Material World" is exceptionally well researched and well worth a read.

FRANKFURT/LONDON, Jan 15 (Reuters) - German utility EnBW (EBKG.DE), opens new tab said on Thursday it was taking a 1.2 billion euro ($1.4 billion) impairment charge after pulling out of two wind projects in Britain, a direct consequence of losing out in a landmark UK offshore tender.

The two offshore wind projects - Mona and Morgan - with a potential total capacity of 3 gigawatts did not qualify for government support via so-called contracts for difference in this week's record auction, EnBW said.

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It means RWE can profitably bid £5–10/MWh lower than some competitors and still clear its investment committee. I do so hope they suffer "buyer's remorse". One thing that is clear is that without Government largesse these deals don't work.

From AI - The baseline: what RWE is implicitly assuming

For its AR7 projects to avoid impairment, RWE is likely assuming:

Strike price at or near the clearing level is just investable

Real capex falls 10–20% between now and FID (turbines, steel, vessels)

Financing costs ease by the time debt is locked in

Schedule discipline — no major slippage into penalty territory

No material CfD redesign, but no new burdens either

If most of that holds, returns are thin but positive.

A write-down happens if enough of those assumptions fail at once.

*I can remember a time when $1.4bn was a lot of money.

Why do you think Ed chose "Red Andy"? He was enthralled by Ed and sucked up every lie and exaggeration.

He spun the £150 lower energy bills. The claim is technically defensible but practically meaningless for many people. it feels misleading because it’s framed as a bill reduction people expect to see — but don’t. It is invisible because other costs have risen and dodgy accounting.

He claimed that the world is more dangerous and energy security is paramount. So how do we fight off an attack without fossil fuels? Ask Russia to only attack on sunny, windy days?

"In the past 18 months, a well-funded right-wing network has raged a relentless war against clean power, when we set out our mission they said it couldn't be done, or even if it could it would be the wrong choice. Today's historic auction has proved them wrong."

David Turner of Eigen value responds - "If he is somehow claiming that your author is part of this network, I ask “Where is the Money?” What does it say about his carefully crafted Net Zero edifice if a few motivated individuals armed with nothing more than a laptop and more than a couple of brain cells can knock it down so easily? DESNZ is staffed by over 7,000 people and the CCC and NESO are also well-funded and staffed by alleged experts. If the flaws in their plan can be exposed so easily, then it really must be an ivory tower built on sand.

Miliband is playing the victim and gaslighting the nation."

So most on here are right-wing and receiving sponsorship. That includes Modestus, Frac, Zippy and KO.

Come on guys, where's my share?

Not here but in Germany. Today Merz announces that the EU has approved Germany's to build new gas-fired power plants; providing crucial backup for renewables. Meanwhile Ed tells us that they are more expensive and the killer is who dived into the subsidy trough for the bulk of AR7 offshore wind today? Yep, good old RWE who last time I looked were German. So it's OK for Germans to build gas plants but keep renewable ideology alive by making profits from UK taxpayers. Meanwhile Norway carries on drilling - AND earning.

On Sky. Just turned on around 9pm and Trump had almost all the important oil companies from around the world. BP was noticeably absent. He first of all excoriated the wind industry. Windmills are junk sold to suckers by China. They kill birds and have a short lifespan whilst ruining the landscape and more importantly, economies.

He did a long QA which puts our politicians to shame. He doesn't avoid questions or sit on the fence. He then let the oil companies (including Shell) and associates introduce themselves. It was pure theatre to some extent but the public will suck it up. Looks like renewables are dead in the US.

The UK did get a small mention and Trump lumped it in with Europe and although he "likes" Europe he made it clear that he doesn't respect its ideology with energy. If they want to choose a more expensive form he won't interfere but he knows they'll come running back to fossil fuels.

It'll be on again on Sky again at 10pm I guess and it'll be interesting to see if the BBC give it much coverage.

Starmer can hardly say he's unaware now.

From EV today:

Norway has reported a blockbuster year, scoring exploration successes, boosting oil production and underpinning gas volumes. The Norwegian Offshore Directorate has released a report setting out the country’s trajectory, but noting the need for new investments to underpin production.

In 2025, Norway produced around 106 million cubic metres of oil – around 1.827 million barrels per day – the highest level of production since 2009.

Norway also sold 120 billion cubic metres of gas in 2025, slightly down from the record 124 bcm in 2024.

But exploration will slow this year, from 49 exploration wells in 2025 to 40 in 2026.

The state petroleum regulator said some fields may be restarted, through tiebacks. It gave the example of the shuttered fields of Albuskjell, Vest Ekofisk and Tommeliten Gamma. A development plan could tie these back to the Ekofisk complex.

I posted a link I had started with ChatGPT yesterday and as those who use it know that you need to hone your questions down and be specific as it always seems to try to please. They get quite long and I wondered if I could just give the link as cut & paste would fill a lot of messages. It doesn't work unfortunately.

I asked it to translate the communication from Craig to Ammut posted on the 6th. Whilst always good to hear from EnQuest there are restrictions on what Craig can say so here is some of the responses from ChatGPT.

“We’re not doing late-life UK deals whose economics rely on tax losses and where decommissioning risk dominates. We already have more tax losses than we can realistically use, so unless an asset has genuine production life, cash flow, and optionality, we’re out.”

What they are not saying (and carefully avoiding)

They are not saying they will do UK M&A

They are not saying current UK asset pricing is attractive

They are not ruling out deals entirely

They are not committing to growth

This is defensive positioning, not offensive intent.

In other words:

It’s an anti-deal statement, not a strategy statement.

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I could go on and I was being harsh and Craig is in an invidious position. Our strategy is mainly a waiting game and we cannot control government or other companies decisions. Impatient retail holders are pretty well down the list of priorities.

I went on to ask it about different things including Bressay and EP. I had to give it a nudge as it wasn't allowing for EP potential and I brought up the "warm stacking" situation.

It said: The Producer is a real option, not nostalgia. Management believes there is a non-trivial probability it will work again. Bressay is the only UK asset that plausibly justifies that belief. The EnQuest Producer on warm stack is the bridge between their words (“we don’t buy liabilities”) and the one scenario where Bressay might still qualify as an “asset”.

The Kraken "solution" (Bressay tie-back) elicited this:

Harbour Likes hub life extension Dislikes heavy oil technical riskWould want proof before committing capital

NEO Most philosophically aligned with a Kraken tie-back Would accept stranded upside Natural partner if EnQuest steps back from lead role

Ithaca Less interested — limited upside acceleration Tie-back economics likely too slow-burn

Followed by: As long as EnQuest hasn’t disproven the Kraken tie-back, they cannot kill Bressay — because killing it would also weaken Kraken’s long-term narrative.

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I imagine they've got a fair amount or conclusions wrong but it does show how there are various ways to look at options and "optionality" is definitely a favourite word of AB. I hope we're using the Bressay tie-back as a negotiating position as eventually Labour need to produce growth and the O&G industry know how once the fiscal environment is in place.