Important diary dates. They may affect the FY Results commentary with late adjustments to the 2024/25 outlook.
EV today "Who won rights to bid in Norway’s first offshore wind auction?"
It will be extremely important to the whole renewable energy movement/religion. I'm not a scientist but I think wind is fungible and our wind is unlikely to be much better (or worse) than Norway's wind. I've a suspicion and a wish that Norwegian's will follow the Scandinavian (and Scottish) trait of parsimony. It looks complicated but bigger brains than mine will translate the CfD component of the auction into a price that all those interested in bidding in our AR6 auction will follow closely and base their future bids on. I'm optimistically hoping that it will reflect the TRUE cost of wind electricity. It will spike the guns of all the ideologs promoting wind as the answer and it won't be 9X cheaper. I'm fully expecting it to be higher than gas.
There are 5 consortia bidding and Shell's bid is questionable. Politics will obviously loom large and I've a feeling that Ed and friends will try to either ignore it or spin it. Most won't even understand it.
"After the auction, the ministry will publish the winner and the winning strike price. This bid determines the strike price that forms the basis of the two-way contract for difference (CfD). The successful consortium must then sign a contract within four weeks of the auction, or face a 400 million kroner ($38m) fine. "
This could be where the industry begin the fight back. If there is confidence in the future of wind then we can expect competitive bidding. I expect instead a price that will show the fantasy world of Labour's 2030 sprint for clean energy by exposing the REAL price of wind.
But Labour have got themselves in a corner. This from the article "Other projections put the losses at a “best-case scenario” of 20,000 jobs lost, and at worst up to 100,000, were Labour to ban any further drilling – though it has not stated it would do so."
But Labour has said so. By removing incentives to drill by attacking the investment allowance it makes NEW fields uneconomic. So there won't be any drilling of NEW fields. Comparing us to Norway is facile. Why not compare us too the US or Saudi Arabia (without the wind)?
and later in the article "Stifel said: “If we try and focus on the investment we can see, everything I’m hearing is that 2024 is going to be the last year of major spending in the UK North Sea because of concerns over where the tax structure might be 2025-onwards.” Stifel look at it through the same lens as the O&G companies and their lenders.
On the North Sea Labour are woefully ignorant.
They are not like for like. I was watching Ski Sunday on TV and there were races from Kvitfell which I'd never heard of. I know we have mountains in Scotland but never heard of International ski racing from there (this doesn't really count https://dailyskier.com/2017/05/31/scotland-to-stage-first-ever-ski-world-cup-event/
In UK hydroelectripower 2.2%
Norway (where Kvitfell is) 92%
Norway has the cheapest electricity in Europe because hydro is the cheapest. The remedy/answer is simple. Build more mountains.
The profiteering that British Gas earns by exploiting a trapped customer base (which includes pensioners and the disabled) is getting out of hand. I'm no financial expert but the profits of Centrica were £751m. That's a lot of dosh.
This means that with a customer base of over 8 million homes and businesses in Britain they are making £93.88 on average from each customer. What is indisputable is that if you are a BG customer you are paying £1.80 a week EXTRA to this behemoth for merely enabling you to keep warm and watch the telly. Do the public really know that they are donating 25p a day to a company and group of shareholder who take these huge sums merely to keep them alive. I'm surprised nobody has taken them to the ECHR.
*The actual number is likely to be lower in fact because the split is something like 7.5m residential and 1/2m business and the businesses are larger and pay more per business than the poor pensioner freezing in the bedsit.
Ban plastic. Start making things out of turtles again.
“Although the Biden administration is hyping the toughness of [the EPA’s methane handling] crackdown—and we fully expect industry leaders to feign opposition to it—this new rule and the methane agreement struck at COP28 are early signs of a practical grand bargain between governments and the fossil fuel industry over climate change. The use of coal will be minimized in the West, replaced by natural gas. The developing world will continue to leverage coal to climb the prosperity ladder. Carbon capture and sequestration will be used to minimize direct CO2 emissions globally, and industry will do its best to eliminate methane emissions. Nuclear power will be accelerated to further decarbonize electricity grids, and the West will continue to tinker around with solar, wind, and electric vehicles, pretending that those can eventually play a meaningful role in the energy future.”
Global coal demand is smashing records. “What is wanted is not the will to believe, but the will to find out, which is the exact opposite.” – Bertrand Russell
Book your next carbon pilgrimage to Azerbaijan - use the code COP29 to get cheaper flights.
I missed this one from November 2022: "“You can never say it enough – Clean British power is cheaper than imported fossil fuels. Nine times cheaper.” You'll probably think I'm obsessed with the 9X shibboleth (I am) but what is different is this was said by Keir Starmer at the CBI Conference. Not one delegate challenged this blatant LIE. By staying silent they allowed it to travel to Davos in the January. I read that the CBI is struggling to be relevant. It should be put out of its misery.
*when Al Gore was born the polar bear population was about 7,000, now there are just 30,000 left
Brilliant article by William Wallace. Agree M - we need more of this. It will get the public's attention. If he can speak as well as he writes we need him on TV.
In Energy Voice they comment on the potential Bressay gas tie-back. Some picks. "In December, North Sea general manager Steve Bowyer said the gas project could be an “early production solution” at Bressay."
"EnQuest (LON: ENQ) said Thursday it will push on with plans to slash emissions at its Kraken FPSO using gas from a new tie-back to the Bressay oilfield."
"The London-listed operator said associated gas from the planned oil development will be used to replace diesel power generation on the Kraken FPSO.
The firm has been seeking solutions to decarbonise Kraken, which it said in 2022 was “almost impossible to electrify”."
They were often talking about Bressay gas when Xcite were trying to get Bentley going.
*WW is using the pseudonym Ryan Crighton
Hi TWalbyoff - the numbers comment refers to my limited understanding of accounts (I still don't fully get decomm and investment allowance) but threw in the other comments because it gives perspective. Some weeks ago we were getting excited about M&A so these excellent figures won't do us any harm if negotiations are continuing. I'd hate for us to be looking for partners out of desperation although the cliff edge for the basin is still there.
Not sure what to make of this in the RNS - "Leadership team and Board refreshed – focused on the exciting next phase of EnQuest’s journey." Why refresh when they've done so well and the replacements do look like they've come off the subs bench?
You don't want my comments on numbers although I do like the 2024 guidance and 2023 wasn't bad. We are handling natural declines better that Spirit (Centrica RNS today) "Total volumes from the retained Spirit Energy assets were down 15%, with lower production across the portfolio in line with expected natural decline rates. "
and Ithaca threw this into there trading update today "- Reflects a reduction in planned activity in the year as a direct result of the Energy Profits Levy"
What you're both missing is the collusion of the Tory Party in this. Labour haven't won yet but the economic conditions are hardly much better under the Tories. The cliff edge is there whoever is in power. March CfD auction preliminaries begin and could bring this to a head. You are not comparing like-with-likw when you use Norway to support your argument as the article Modestus linked to says.
Save this https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/voting-and-elections/campaigning-election/online-campaigning/claims-made-online-political-ads
If you find anything interesting and it is purely propaganda not backed by facts then post here and inform the authorities.
We'll probably be contacting these people https://uksa.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/contact-us/
The media, political parties, lobbyists and advertisers are going to be up to all sort of games in the coming months. I don't know where they'll act but there is an easy way to find out by contacting them with cases.
Headline - Tory Donor guilty of price gouging
Labour have exposed another example of Tory profiteering. Ernie (a Tory supporter) was caught selling a dozen red roses from his flower stall in Kensington at £75 a bunch yesterday and again today. Under Labour and starting tomorrow we will be selling the same roses at £10 a bunch. Fully 7.50 times cheaper than Tory roses.
All our roses are organic and grown in natural b*llsh*t
Hi Andre - thanks for that but I'm not sure it helps. There is (I believe) also the FTSE small cap market. I cannot see either why being added to an index is a positive when we are touching an all time low. Maybe all the MSCI is that we've moved down from one index to the MSCI micro cap? I'm guessing here but I imagine the MSCI micro cap requirements are lower than their small cap.
I'm open to being educated.