Member Info for romaron

Lower energy bills because renewables being pushed out of bills onto general taxation. From the too early release of the OBR Report. Reported by BBC,

Excellent Frac - here's the breakdown to the simple 3 questions on EPL - Scrapped, changed or kept

Scrapped 6

Change 4

Kept 0

So which way would the 5 who gave NO RESPONSE or the 2 who said 'Unable to comment' have chosen?

Shell was 'unable to comment' whilst Neil McCulloch (part Shell and ex EnQuest 3y9m) gave 'no response'

I realise it was a kinda straw poll but nobody voted for 'Kept'. Politically those who just vote 'change' are fence sitters whilst No response' and 'unable to comment' are cowards. I imagine that there are a few people at EnQuest who know what Neil McCulloch's response would be if he had a free-hand.

The 3 women exhibited typical caution 2 for 'change' and 1 'no response'.

Not one person was prepared to say 'Kept'.

This is where it gets complicated. The original EPL was NOT brought in at budget time (May 2022) so a kinda precedent has been set. So we may see the drilling of discovered fields announced but the EPL mechanism may be delayed until the expected furore from the far Left ideologs and the Greens subsides. The EPL was brought in because of the Ukraine invasion causing prices to spike. A peace settlement might make it politically acceptable and used as an excuse and insurance against Putin.

Hi Hunbah, I like the way your mind works. Both Bressay and Bentley have been worked on and effectively abandoned so they fit the criteria if what the Guardian suggests is in the budget tomorrow and we will be off to the races if that happens. As I've mentioned in the past I suspect that Equinor (Statoil) has a clause in the deal with Bressay that if it does get to production they get a kinda first refusal and don't forget they've been relatively successful with Mariner, another heavy oil field. They have the capex.

Ed is unpopular with the public we know and ChatGTP can find NO instance of Ed or his No. 2 the schoolteacher Michael Shanks ever visiting a rig or FPSO. I've no doubt that Ed Miliband will survive any turmoil and do his best to spin his way out but his position must be weakened by now. Why has the industry not gone for his throat? I imagine the cabinet have twigged his maneuvering and ability to raid energy bills with jealousy at first and then with anger as the bills keep rising. We'll know soon enough.

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But there may be legacy costs which generally mean decommissioning. I'm quietly hopeful because Tullow look like they may hit the wall and they do have legacy commitments. I don't follow them close enough to comment but this is another problem coming Labour's way if bankruptcy means they have to pay decomm costs. The fact that it's all quiet on the Western front suggests that they are desperately working behind the scenes. If they do FA then I expect Industry and the Unions to declare war and immediately attack. Maggie and the Miners will be as nothing compared to Labour and the North Sea Scots.

Hi M - I've looked at the requirements for asylum or immigration into Norway and they are pretty formidable. Do you know of any ways to enter by the back door? Asking for a friend.

EA cofounder William MacAskill argued that it was more altruistic in the long run to take a more morally ambiguous job to get rich and donate that money through optimised philanthropy, he wrote that the expected value of being a rich philanthropist would in fact be forty times greater than being an ascetic charity worker. His argument was behind the “earn to give” movement.

The forty times multiple is dwarfed by the likes of the Bill Gates Foundation which gives away $ billions each year.

We are sadly losing one of our philanthropists, Lakshmi Mittal, who is leaving to avoid taxes being proposed by Labour. One can only hope that the £15 million he gave to St. Ormond Street is not his last donation.

We have our own philanthropist in Amjad Bseisu and the Foundation he formed with his wife that concentrates on education. I think few would criticise him if he decided to move to a country where he was more appreciated. I hope he stays.

Of course when these people leave the “ascetic charity workers” remain looking for more victims to replace those leaving and continue their parasitical crusades.

*Uplift is not a Charity but run as a business and fiscally managed by The Social Change Nest CIC. On SCN’s “Uplift” case study, they explain that they “supported Uplift in receiving and managing over £2 million in funding” across 18 months. The advantage over a charity is that Directors in a CIC can be paid. In a charity, trustees are often unpaid (or more constrained). There is little difference imo between a CIC and a charity. Philanthropy doesn’t appear to be part of their mission. Just saying.

Frac, Gary Smith is putting on his make-up and sharpening his claymore - https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/labour-accused-of-treating-oil-and-gas-workers-like-the-miners-in-the-1980s we need more like him.

"While oil-indexation is common in long-term contracts, spot market LNG prices are often decoupled from crude oil and determined by supply-demand dynamics or gas hub benchmarks." Means I don't have to go back to school. This is from the Doomberg video (Malaysia) and his comment that there is an arbitrage that holds oil in a vice because Natural Gas is the new wonder fuel and is abundant. He may be right but how does it explain China's enthusiasm and efforts to get oil from coal and buying a lot of what might be called “lower-value” refinery products: fuel oil, residue, bitumen blends, etc.

To paraphrased Mark Twain "the death of oil was greatly exaggerated".

*further thinking on AI - it needs colossal amounts of water for cooling and has met great resistance (Chile in particular with its droughts) around the world for NEW data centres. So you need energy and WATER. I think that's why Trump is bending Starmer's ear. We have BOTH.

"It has been nearly two years since we first published “Peak Cheap Oil Is a Myth,” an article that created some controversy among die-hard true believers who are convinced a catastrophic decline in oil production is perpetually just around the corner. Few erroneous concepts have cost investors more capital than this one, primarily because it feels like it should be true. The consensus view is that there is a finite amount of hydrocarbons under the surface, and surely the easiest stuff has already been picked off.

As we have consistently argued, a superior mental model is to assume that there is an infinite supply of hydrocarbon resources, that oil and gas companies are technology superpowers that just happen to produce energy, and that the long-term real price of all commodities is therefore lower."

From a Doomberg email. If I ever earn money from EnQuest I think I'll upgrade to their (expensive) £18.75 a month full access to articles. The teasers are exactly that. I think this is important because it revolves around Exxon finding that waste in shale can be used again as a proppant giving a 10% boost to the numbers. It makes me think about the NS and EOR which is often talked about but really too expensive to make a lot of difference. However I'm not a chemist or a geologist. Also it affects other basins so who knows where a potential breakthrough may come from? It also completely ignores the Energy Security aspect of having your own cheap hydrocarbons.

*I think the media are missing the point. There has already been a wealth tax imposed on the UK by Labour. It is called Net Zero and is our voluntary decision to close down the NS and transfer the wealth we could have had to China bypassing UK residents. Norway is governed by pragmatists and the other European Nations (without oil & gas reserves) worry about our mental health that includes self-harm and delusional behaviour.

Now you've lost me Frac. Is it the O&G industry that is unpopular or the Climate campaigners? Most people aren't that interested in NZ but a lower energy bill and better environment will always get votes. A better environment can mean no fly-tipping, no pot holes and clean water - who wouldn't want that! Most people don't agree with sitting in the road and blocking traffic for half-a- degree that is "settled science. I attended a juststopoil meeting where a campaigner showed me the 9X cheaper Carbon Brief quote on his mobile as evidence that it was true. You're not going to convert an activist or an Iman, Rabbi, or the Pope. I think there isn't a lot to chose between religion and NZ. That's settled doctrine then - "heaven does exist".

Instead of meekly accepting job losses isn't it time for the O&G industry to metaphorically daub the woad and pick up their claymores? You do know that in Westminster you're considered backward savages.

It will be bucolic M because there'll be no industry or factories. Slightly off tack. I remember a story about a Chinese leader with a huge army armed with bows and arrows that was being decimated by the new invention of machine-gun fire. As thousands were being mown down he was advised to cut his losses and change tactics. He refused and said "but they're running out of bullets".

That is the basis of AI. It can never win because there'll always be more minds than money (bullets). The premise that facts and science eventually win is plainly wrong. Many people only want the answer that confirms their bias or theory. I get a lot of wrong answers from AI and you can see the repeated bias that we've become used to. ESG and Prod B is still embedded in different corners and minds. Some love them whilst others see them as a 'woke' creation while others are still in mourning for NZBA. But of course this is my thinking and many, many others disagree. If Empirical Evidence is the gold standard how is it possible for religion to survive millennia? One of the most abused terms used by Climate Activists is "the science is settled". It is all b*llks.

Anyway, back to EnQuest. I think we are winners whatever happens now. We have benefits whatever Labour chooses. If they don't relax the persecution of the O&G industry then prices could even drift lower. It could be a fatal blow and there will be sellers at fire-sale prices. We are one of the few companies that could take them on. All need decommissioning eventually and all need tried and trusted operators. The road-crash that is DESNZ must have companies giving the UK one-last-chance. If AI does continue to grow then where is the electricity coming from?

*bit disappointed that not many appear to have watched and listened to the 'Malaysia' post 20 Nov 12:39. It is long but Doomberg speaks directly to industry bigwigs off-the-record. Some gems in there e.g. Brent trades in lockstep to landed LNG X 6 and Natural Gas is $4 at Henry Hub and reaches us as LNG at $11. He says oil is finished. I say he's wrong but it is fascinating stuff.

I have conflicting views. Labour has calculated that the Scottish seats most affected by O&G voted Conservative and SNP so don't depend on them for survival. They expect O&G workers to transition to renewables because they [Labour] know best and green jobs poll better. Labour’s priorities are shaped more by English voter sentiment than Scottish industrial realities and frankly the SNP ideologically seem happy to see the jobs disappear. OK, I know the SNP are bleating now but the damage has become systemic in Scotland imo. If London doesn't understand the realities and concern in(say) Aberdeen why should Manchester, Glasgow or Edinburgh either?

The policy logic is that production is declining anyway with jobs expected to shift toward decommissioning, CCS, offshore wind and offshore workers are seen (from London & other cities) as transferable to “transition jobs”. That leads to a technocratic belief that: “We’re not harming jobs — we’re accelerating an inevitable transition.” The fact that it has become self-harming dogma doesn't matter as maybe the grand kids will enjoy the bucolic landscape reminiscent of the 17th Century (along with plague and poverty). What a shambles. We have zero chance of leading Europe in AI without cheap reliable energy.

The coal miners put up a fight. The Jocks just folded. If the majority of them are against fossil fuels then they are basically a California without the sunshine or the wealth. Be honest. The fight back has been pathetic by the actual industry.

The good news is that someone has to stay behind to tidy up and that is where EnQuest is ideally placed.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dsWimqipxc

Small countries that punch above their weight (33:50). Comparing Malaysia to Qatar is intriguing and don't forget we're also in Brunei. This video is another Doomberg and possibly the best I've come across on Energy so far. I was doing something else so it was in the background and I will watch and listen again. He [Doomberg] is negative on oil and that isn't as much of a problem for EnQuest as it might be for other North Sea producers (decomm expertise and tax credits). The security implications and the stupidity of our current energy course is explained and we know how Trump feels BUT I wonder what his [Trump] other angle or agenda is here. AI looms large and in the video it makes a suggestion that Dubai is becoming increasingly attractive for AI data centres. Because of the insane energy policy of this country we are being hollowed out and our brightest and best will not remain. Also at 29:45 there is an interesting hypothesis that if LNG spikes Trump would stop exports to Europe in a heartbeat.

Its an admission by Miliband that he f*cked up. The air-to-water was the typical UK bodge that required huge retrofit expense. Look under the majority of our housing stock's floor boards and you'll find cast iron, lead, copper and plastic pipes. We went for a mongrel approach that was doomed before we started. Most of Europe is air-to-air and shops and offices have preferred this for some time. It'll be spun BUT it is a money saver and a small boost to businesses. Air-to-air now gets help whilst it signals the end of air-to-water. As air-to-air is a smaller contribution this is (believe it or not) more sensible and saves us taxpayers from spaffing more money on something that only works for new-builds or expensive retrofits (£127,000 per semi in Enfield).

It is meant to make it look like Miliband is in control. It says the exact opposite. Expect air-to-water manufacturers to start bleating as their orders dry up.

also in fife there is something ongoing called h100 fife. this is a £32 million government and taxpayer subsidised experiment. sgn executes it but taxpayers fund it. that’s the nature of regulated-utility innovation projects. most other hydrogen trials were cancelled due to cost and community resistance elsewhere in the uk. and we know what greg jackson thinks of hydrogen (like using champagne to flush the toilet).

my suspicion is that because it hasn't really started yet there is no “proof of concept” in customer-cost or long-term viability. this is still a demonstration / pilot project. its purpose is evidence gathering, not mass commercial rollout (yet). i think it will prove to be a disaster waiting to be announced.

still, i'll be called a luddite and what is £32 million compared to the monies made by dictators and petrostates. tell that to the workers at mossmoran. i used to think that the jocks were warriors and implacable foes. they've become *****cats and the snp never really got out of the student activist stage.

From Doomberg today:

“Few would venture to deny the advantages of temperance in increasing the efficiency of a nation at war.” – William Lyon Mackenzie King

In northern China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, a sprawling petrochemical facility converts thousands of tons of coal per day into chemicals and fuels traditionally derived from crude oil. Commissioned in 2008, the Shenhua Ordos Coal-to-Liquids (CTL) plant was the first of its kind in the country. Leveraging chemistry perfected by the Germans a century ago, CTL technology is quite flexible, allowing for the production of diesel, gasoline, and precursor chemicals for plastics.

According to a recent Reuters report, China’s CTL industry consumed 276 million tons of coal last year, a staggering total that is expected to double within the next five years. If those plans are carried out, China’s CTL capacity would offset roughly 1.2 million barrels of oil per day. Not all of this coal is used to make oil products, though—an unexpectedly large share is being used to produce synthetic natural gas:"

Perhaps he went to COP 30 for fresh orders?

I get the feeling that the SNP aren't really football supporters.

It was an amazing game. I did support Scotland and the final goal really was the icing on the cake!

From Gemini AI:

"While we cannot give a definitive number for the town's electricity demand, it's safe to assume the continuous power needs for the community (homes, shops, local businesses, schools) of Waltham Cross are likely in the range of 10 to 30 MW.

In contrast, the Google data centre is often described as a hyperscale facility, and even a single phase of such a facility can easily have a power capacity of 100 MW or more.

This highlights why the data centre's power requirement is considered a major new load on the local and national grid, potentially being several times greater than the electricity demand of the surrounding town itself."

No axe to grind here but it does look as if we have energy blackouts as suggested by many experts because of problems with unreliable renewables and the natural occurrence of “dunkelflaute” then the glowing beacon in the dark for Waltham Cross residents will be the data centre.

Google will be fine. They have Shell looking after their Energy needs. I would imagine there is a totally different discussion when politicians are in the room and another when they are more private and experts produce data and scenarios. The Treasury takes more notice of the latter.

Google can always say. “We would like this to happen – Norway already have the infrastructure and speak excellent English but we are sentimentalists and prefer London.” Scotland is also very attractive.

Google CEO being interviewed shortly at 7pm on BBC2. Faisal Islam said the BBC were "invited" to California. Make no mistake - the UK is important to google and the whole AI industry. Probably because of a common language. Faisal aske if "AI is more important than climate" and "are the two things coherent?"

This is a massive intervention in the debate imo and money does "talk". Together the Tech companies have more leverage than most countries. If they need (demand) energy countries have to supply it or the companies will go elsewhere. I wonder what they think of Ed Miliband?