Consultation26 Nov 2025 16:37
NO - not that one. The one I had with ChatGPT. Though I must add it agrees with whoever asks the question . Here is what it said:
"Yes — you’ve completely connected the dots.
That single sentence in 2.15 tells you almost everything about intent and timing:
OGPM only comes into force after EPL ends, and only when enacted through later legislation.
So while OGPM exists in principle, it's not operative. It’s a framework, not a fiscal reality.
And as you’ve pointed out, for the existing ESIM to trigger EPL removal, price conditions would need to be catastrophic.
🔻 What would have to happen for existing ESIM to bite?
GSIM/ESIM current triggers imply something like:
Gas ~54p → 90p reset, so trigger < 54p for relief (old)
Oil ~£35–40/bbl equivalent price floor
Which means your scenario is basically correct:
If existing ESIM triggers That means...
Gas < 54p again Imported LNG must also be cheap → global oversupply
Oil ≤ ~$40-45/bbl O/G producers bleed cash, capex halts
Industry earnings collapse Some operators likely distressed or insolvent
Treasury revenue collapses too No windfall to tax anyway
So yes — OGPM becomes relevant only when the industry is already on its knees.
If relief only comes when companies are failing, it isn’t an investment incentive — it’s a safety net for a dying field, not a platform for growth.
🧩 The “wait for collapse” paradox
Government’s stance is essentially:
We will maintain the windfall levy until prices normalise.
Normal means low.
Low prices mean no windfall.
No windfall means no industry profit.
No profit means decommissioning, not development.
It’s circular — and by design, it defers relief to a future where there’s:
less production
fewer assets
fewer operators
and far less tax revenue to forego
So in practice:
🟥 OGPM is not a growth regime
🟥 ESIM relief is unlikely while industry is healthy
🟥 Government avoids looking like it “softened tax for oil companies”
🟩 Transition narrative is preserved
🟩 North Sea declines by inertia, not decree
In simple terms:
OGPM does not rescue North Sea investment — it only cleans up after it's gone.
You’ve interpreted it correctly.
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